Any Rennlisters from New Zealand?
10-06-2016, 08:05 AM
Rennlist Member
Mmmm. From Q3 2007 until Q2 2012 (4+ years) looks like it dipped or at best was flat? Depends were toy are measuring the cycle I suppose. With rates and holding costs for me it didnt seem to make any ground since the 2007 peak until Q2 2012...
10-06-2016, 02:25 PM
Rennlist Member
FWIW we bought our current house in early '09 so it's not completely unknown to have bought then. I can vividly remember that buying when people think the world is falling apart is stomach churning even if it's nice to be the only one bidding. When this seriously turns it will be an eye opener for many who haven't been though a buyers market before. Coming home from the airport yesterday reminded us that many houses are very average construction. Take away the rose tinted capital appreciation glasses and it's not pretty.
10-06-2016, 05:07 PM
Rennlist Member
Yes it was flat if you go further back, although Paul chose to pick the eyes out of it by mentioning 7 years. FWIW we bought our current house in early '09 so it's not completely unknown to have bought then. I can vividly remember that buying when people think the world is falling apart is stomach churning even if it's nice to be the only one bidding. When this seriously turns it will be an eye opener for many who haven't been though a buyers market before. Coming home from the airport yesterday reminded us that many houses are very average construction. Take away the rose tinted capital appreciation glasses and it's not pretty.
John after having built and lived in solid masonry houses for the last decade I find NZ houses built out of match sticks. After Europe that would be doubly true. Shame you didn't get to spend time In my favourite spot Italy on this trip (more reason to head back again soon) - everything there made of stone to last 1000 years and 400k Euro today buys you small villa next to lake Como. Once you get away from the big cities the prices fall like a stone. Spain is the same. Barcelona and Madrid aside you can buy very well there for lifestyle.
Sounds like you had a good trip tho. The gastronomic tour (Pete). Back to the grindstone now aye, cold and wet and on a diet!
Good news - NITT is only 6 weeks away!
10-06-2016, 05:31 PM
Rennlist Member
If its a 5.0L etc and RHD then not sure re the UK. Currently a NZ specification Focus RS is 35K GBP (63K NZD) new there (price has just risen) mainly due to Brexit then the 2.5% drop in the GBP over the last week against the USD. Landed and complied that would be around 67K NZD plus FX costs/Sundry say 68K. The Ford Focus RS was 69,990 NZD listed new (sold out now till a final shipment arriving Q3 2017). Price rose to $73,000 just recently. Before the price rise they were only a few grand apart which is why I chose the NZ new sales experience.
No idea what the story is with the base Mustang but like the Focus I would suspect if theres only a few grand in it then stick with NZ new...
10-06-2016, 05:32 PM
Rennlist Member
We sold our last NZ house and settled Xmas 2006, so got out pretty close to the top. By mid 2007 it was over. Just luck. If we hadn't sold and had that money to invest here we would only have the appreciation from the Auckland property today. John after having built and lived in solid masonry houses for the last decade I find NZ houses built out of match sticks. After Europe that would be doubly true. Shame you didn't get to spend time In my favourite spot Italy on this trip (more reason to head back again soon) - everything there made of stone to last 1000 years and 400k Euro today buys you small villa next to lake Como. Once you get away from the big cities the prices fall like a stone. Spain is the same. Barcelona and Madrid aside you can buy very well there for lifestyle. Sounds like you had a good trip tho. The gastronomic tour (Pete). Back to the grindstone now aye, cold and wet and on a diet! Good news - NITT is only 6 weeks away!
Europe was an eye opener and we will go back for an extended trip, likely to France as language is easy there for me at least, but we've yet to see a place in the world that fits as well for us long term as Kohi does.
10-06-2016, 07:31 PM
Three Wheelin'
Talking about peaking prices......
After Macca's comments ex UK I had a look on pistonheads to see what gt4's were on the market and there is a boatload. That market is definitely soft - how much it will come down is anyones guess and many ask prices are still over the top. Well above the prices Macca was quoting. I suppose the other trick is to be able to find demo stock or vat qualifying in order to get vat back.
I have been told that you can't claim vat back on used cars unless its one of the above 2 conditions. Is that right??
After Macca's comments ex UK I had a look on pistonheads to see what gt4's were on the market and there is a boatload. That market is definitely soft - how much it will come down is anyones guess and many ask prices are still over the top. Well above the prices Macca was quoting. I suppose the other trick is to be able to find demo stock or vat qualifying in order to get vat back.
I have been told that you can't claim vat back on used cars unless its one of the above 2 conditions. Is that right??
10-06-2016, 07:52 PM
Rennlist Member
Only just John lol! Actually it was all over within 5-6 years and the rest has been idle! Tax rules have excluded me from speculating in NZ since then but that is slimiest in the bag in a few months time. Unfortunately so is the opportunity to do so for a while so it would seem. I need another global met down to catch up!!
Europe has some upsides but it's a long way away if you have family and friends Downunder. France was our favourite until we discovered Italy. But it's close. Italy is better for car nuts, cost of living and the non PC lifestyle as well as the climate and access to islands and other countries.
The GBP has taken a hiding this week. I have some forward contracts for GBP to pay for the Alfa which will strike out higher than market at this rate but still at historic lows. The key I believe is locking in deals before UK retailers are forced to price correct (upwards) which can only be around the corner any time soon. I may decide shortly to buy more GBP and add a speculative car to the container to earn some NZD next year. If anyone has any arbitrage ideas here I'm all ears. It doesn't even need to be a car as long as it brings profit. GT4 comes to mind 150k landed but not sure how much upside there is as not easy to gauge the local secondary market today. I assume there's 30k on the table with that but it could change. NZ Euro Car retailers will have to move their prices down soon or become decimated by UK imports. There are a flood of cars arriving at post brexit FX, was offered 2 X brand new M3 this week fully specced due to arrive next few weeks at around 122k NZD - nz base list is 159k!! No interested in a M3 but begs the question how will the local official importers fare? They are Euro FX based which has been stable around 0.64-0.655 last 4 months whereas GBP is 15-18% down. I can see the UK economy blossoming whilst this arbitrage opportunity prevails though it will likely crash at the back end next year when prices increase and inflation rises. Heck, they may even have to start I increasing their OCR by mid 2017 significantly offering yield for the first time since 2008!! I can't help thinking GBP FX plays in the next few months could be the play of the century for the brave, but I'm not sure I'm brave enough. I don't see myself living in UK if it all goes wrong, UK passport aside!
If anyone has some ideas around all this PM me. uK NZers or locals reading this, both. There may be some short term business opportunities here who knows. I'm comfortable making money from Chaos just don't have eyes and ears everywhere to know the opportunities and I'm happy to partner up...
Europe has some upsides but it's a long way away if you have family and friends Downunder. France was our favourite until we discovered Italy. But it's close. Italy is better for car nuts, cost of living and the non PC lifestyle as well as the climate and access to islands and other countries.
The GBP has taken a hiding this week. I have some forward contracts for GBP to pay for the Alfa which will strike out higher than market at this rate but still at historic lows. The key I believe is locking in deals before UK retailers are forced to price correct (upwards) which can only be around the corner any time soon. I may decide shortly to buy more GBP and add a speculative car to the container to earn some NZD next year. If anyone has any arbitrage ideas here I'm all ears. It doesn't even need to be a car as long as it brings profit. GT4 comes to mind 150k landed but not sure how much upside there is as not easy to gauge the local secondary market today. I assume there's 30k on the table with that but it could change. NZ Euro Car retailers will have to move their prices down soon or become decimated by UK imports. There are a flood of cars arriving at post brexit FX, was offered 2 X brand new M3 this week fully specced due to arrive next few weeks at around 122k NZD - nz base list is 159k!! No interested in a M3 but begs the question how will the local official importers fare? They are Euro FX based which has been stable around 0.64-0.655 last 4 months whereas GBP is 15-18% down. I can see the UK economy blossoming whilst this arbitrage opportunity prevails though it will likely crash at the back end next year when prices increase and inflation rises. Heck, they may even have to start I increasing their OCR by mid 2017 significantly offering yield for the first time since 2008!! I can't help thinking GBP FX plays in the next few months could be the play of the century for the brave, but I'm not sure I'm brave enough. I don't see myself living in UK if it all goes wrong, UK passport aside!
If anyone has some ideas around all this PM me. uK NZers or locals reading this, both. There may be some short term business opportunities here who knows. I'm comfortable making money from Chaos just don't have eyes and ears everywhere to know the opportunities and I'm happy to partner up...
10-06-2016, 08:14 PM
Rennlist Member
Talking about peaking prices...... After Macca's comments ex UK I had a look on pistonheads to see what gt4's were on the market and there is a boatload. That market is definitely soft - how much it will come down is anyones guess and many ask prices are still over the top. Well above the prices Macca was quoting. I suppose the other trick is to be able to find demo stock or vat qualifying in order to get vat back. I have been told that you can't claim vat back on used cars unless its one of the above 2 conditions. Is that right??
Now repeat for GT4 at 85k GBP.
They have made 2x the GT4 as originally promised and are still producing them till end of this month at least. They have also leaked there will likely be a next gen model. RHD UK got less allocations than most, but what we are seeing now is probably the peak for the prices, 93-95k GBP ask on a car that retailed at 65k plus say 5k options (most were specced with buckets and leather at minimum) and you can see that even the speculators in UK can make 20k GBP on same car you can land in NZ under 160k (which is already 50k NZD under a retail specced nz new car!).
Imagine you had order in for RHD GT4 (change for GT3,911R or RS if you like) at UK retail 70k GBP via a sourcing agent Bri g delivered in the UK this week. That would be a a 110k NZD car landed today!!!!!
Yes you read that right! 110k NZD landed brand new GT4 zero miles with buckets and leather when NZ dealer is 210k for same car. That's alot of years of depreciation proof ownership!
Makes the mind boggle. Sure it's an exceptional moment in FX history. But if the NZ dealers can't get their prices in line in 2017 and the FX persists even with UK retail price hikes we will be looking at a very unbalanced market.
In many ways I'm mad buying the Alfa - a car I will only just beat depreciation for 12-18 months over locally at best case scenario. I should throw the money into a GT4 for speculation. It's heart over head for this car unfortunately. Sometimes it's not just a fiscal decision...
10-06-2016, 08:19 PM
Rennlist Member
One last thing of interest. I wanted to do a Euro trip around the Alfa. For love nor money I can't find a UK insurer who will cover a non resident licence holder on a 65k gbp car registered to that owner for comprehensive use in UK AND Europe! Looked everywhere and tried everything and shy of fudging the application (will not do) there is no way I can make this work at any price. After tonnes of research via broker there and Google seems there is a common issue with this in UK for non resident temporary owners. You can do it but it would invalidate you VAT free deal etc. for now it looks like the "Euro Delivery" idea is off the cards. Unless anyone knows a creative solution? Although not paramount to me buying a new UK car and exporting it was definitely a left of field issue having not experienced this issue buying from new Europe before and doing ED ...
10-07-2016, 01:22 AM
Three Wheelin'
Hmm lots to think about. I reckon that with currency like this the new price in UK for pcars will go up quite a lot with the next models. But given that there is still a large premium in the secondary market, if you can get one the price still won't exceed the current secondary market. So that's the big if? If you can get one then hedge the currency around these levels and be happy. But no use speculating on currency not knowing whether you can get a car.
Otherwise don't wait and pull the trigger on an existing model. I think prices will still drop more coming into the UK winter. Gloom etc
Otherwise don't wait and pull the trigger on an existing model. I think prices will still drop more coming into the UK winter. Gloom etc
10-07-2016, 01:25 AM
Three Wheelin'
One last thing of interest. I wanted to do a Euro trip around the Alfa. For love nor money I can't find a UK insurer who will cover a non resident licence holder on a 65k gbp car registered to that owner for comprehensive use in UK AND Europe! Looked everywhere and tried everything and shy of fudging the application (will not do) there is no way I can make this work at any price. After tonnes of research via broker there and Google seems there is a common issue with this in UK for non resident temporary owners. You can do it but it would invalidate you VAT free deal etc. for now it looks like the "Euro Delivery" idea is off the cards. Unless anyone knows a creative solution? Although not paramount to me buying a new UK car and exporting it was definitely a left of field issue having not experienced this issue buying from new Europe before and doing ED ...