A place to discuss all things ADM
10-02-2022, 04:02 PM
#2446
RL Community Team
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they should remember the phrase up above.Not everyone's situation is the same.
And for those that say, "well, if you pay an ADM, that'll just perpetuate the vicious cycle which mean that I will have to pay an ADM"
Well, you know what, thems the breaks.
Life is not fair. Move on.
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10-03-2022, 01:03 AM
#2447
Perhaps I should have provided an even more obtuse idiom such as comparing "apples" to "potatoes"
I'm aware of why CarMax shares cratered
I've been involved in the financial markets since 1980.
I'm aware of "canary in a coal mine" economic indicators like WMT and AAPL.
But I would suggest that the Porsche GT car buying crowd isnt highly correlated with the Used Car KMX crowd.
That crowd has been buoyed by extremely low interest rates and fiscal stimulus payments which have all vanished.
That crowd is very much more interest rate sensitive for affordability purposes relative to the GT Porsche car crowd.
Personally, I dont know of anyone that has paid a $125,000 ADM.
Do you?
I seriously question that number and I think that it gets tossed around rather dramatically in some of these forums.
I cant speak for other demographic areas, but here in the Bay Area the highest ADM that I've seen was $110,000 at Carlsen in Redwood City near the heart of Silicon Valley and that was 3 months ago.I would say that the current going ADM "rate" is much closer to $75,000 here in the Bay Area. That having been said, a 2022 Agate Grey GT3 Touring with 450 miles sold for +$95,000 over its $205,000 sticker on Bring a Trailer last month.
Could ADM's go lower as the stock market goes lower?
Of course they can.
But I suspect that there will still be an ADM all through MY 2023 and 2024.
And I suspect that Porsche continues to raise the MSRP just like they did for MY2023 (+$8600), although maybe not as much.
I have no idea if there are still allocations and build slots available from here on out. Most of the time my dealer knows very little.
I seriously doubt anyone really knows with any certainty.
Moreover, no one really knows how Porsche will be IMPACTED by continued supply chain issues going forward and how their GT car production may potentially become "limited."
Especially in 2023, where Germany will be experiencing one of the biggest economic contractions since WW-II primarily due to energy costs having tripled and inflation running at 10%.
As it stands right now, Germany has their nat-gas supply in storage at 85%. That's good enough storage for up to 2.5 months this winter. But then what???
Chancellor Scholz has been in the Middle East trying to procure nat-gas deals with the UAE for an LNG shipment to Hamburg by the end of the year.
Other long-term deals are being made with Qatar, but those deliveries wont start until 2026.
And of course, the big white elephant in the room is a Mad Man named Vladimir.
Nord Stream 1 and 2 are shuttered.
At the end of the day, there are people in their 60's like myself that have more money than time.
I paid cash for my GT4 and will be paying cash for my GT3.
But time is something that I am unable to "buy."
Life is very short for some of us.
Enjoy it while you can!
I'm aware of why CarMax shares cratered
I've been involved in the financial markets since 1980.
I'm aware of "canary in a coal mine" economic indicators like WMT and AAPL.
But I would suggest that the Porsche GT car buying crowd isnt highly correlated with the Used Car KMX crowd.
That crowd has been buoyed by extremely low interest rates and fiscal stimulus payments which have all vanished.
That crowd is very much more interest rate sensitive for affordability purposes relative to the GT Porsche car crowd.
Personally, I dont know of anyone that has paid a $125,000 ADM.
Do you?
I seriously question that number and I think that it gets tossed around rather dramatically in some of these forums.
I cant speak for other demographic areas, but here in the Bay Area the highest ADM that I've seen was $110,000 at Carlsen in Redwood City near the heart of Silicon Valley and that was 3 months ago.I would say that the current going ADM "rate" is much closer to $75,000 here in the Bay Area. That having been said, a 2022 Agate Grey GT3 Touring with 450 miles sold for +$95,000 over its $205,000 sticker on Bring a Trailer last month.
Could ADM's go lower as the stock market goes lower?
Of course they can.
But I suspect that there will still be an ADM all through MY 2023 and 2024.
And I suspect that Porsche continues to raise the MSRP just like they did for MY2023 (+$8600), although maybe not as much.
I have no idea if there are still allocations and build slots available from here on out. Most of the time my dealer knows very little.
I seriously doubt anyone really knows with any certainty.
Moreover, no one really knows how Porsche will be IMPACTED by continued supply chain issues going forward and how their GT car production may potentially become "limited."
Especially in 2023, where Germany will be experiencing one of the biggest economic contractions since WW-II primarily due to energy costs having tripled and inflation running at 10%.
As it stands right now, Germany has their nat-gas supply in storage at 85%. That's good enough storage for up to 2.5 months this winter. But then what???
Chancellor Scholz has been in the Middle East trying to procure nat-gas deals with the UAE for an LNG shipment to Hamburg by the end of the year.
Other long-term deals are being made with Qatar, but those deliveries wont start until 2026.
And of course, the big white elephant in the room is a Mad Man named Vladimir.
Nord Stream 1 and 2 are shuttered.
At the end of the day, there are people in their 60's like myself that have more money than time.
I paid cash for my GT4 and will be paying cash for my GT3.
But time is something that I am unable to "buy."
Life is very short for some of us.
Enjoy it while you can!
South Bay was the dealership that told me $125K over on their Black touring, so used that as an example, although they told another member here $80K. Another local dealer told me $90K on a pre owned winged car. All of the cars at Beverly Hills are listed at $110-$125K over. What is the lowest ADM for a listed car on autotrader ? I think the cheapest cars are $270K, and they have lower MSRPs in the $180-$185K range. So i think the lowest ADM on a car would be pre owned and be $85K? My point is that I do not think it is unreasonable to think that ADMs on pre owned 992 GT3s go down to what they were 1.5 years ago on buildable allocations, which was $25-$30K. That is a $60K drop in ADM, to me that is significant, to you it may not be. I know some people have plenty of money in any environment, but the ones that do will not be hyper focused on just one car forever they will eventually move on to the next hottest car. I would also not underestimate the market impact to every type of asset, Credit Suisse looks to be in rough shape, depending on what comes out of that and if there are other dominos to fall, we are potentially in for some corrections in other asset types. I do not think any car value has gone straight up in value, there were usually ups and downs and the right time to buy from a purely financial prospective. If I were to guess between up or down on the direction of the GT3s value in short term even given supply chain constraints, I would put my money on down.
Last edited by WCGhost; 10-03-2022 at 01:10 AM.
10-03-2022, 02:09 AM
#2448
Burning Brakes
Funny because South Bay was the dealership that offered me 2018 Gt3 for 30k off sticker because it sat there brand new for almost a year
I think everyone suggesting Porsche can just jack the prices up and save ur resale value u care so much about is forgetting that in normal times they can’t move Porsche very easily. South Bay was also begging me for 2020 carrera s orders at 7% off sticker when they came out in a great economy. We got a Macan there for like 12% off, they offered me a speedster for sticker, they had a pts grey touring there that sat forever….
theres just residual Covid stuff going on still where people went car crazy, the tides are turning fast. The most true thing I ever heard frim a hedge fund manager about markets is trends last longer than you will ever believe both up and down….so buckle up. If the car value matters so much to you just sell it.
i feel people here really don’t know what’s to come. I just picked up a GT car at a tiny adm of 7k and I can assure u I will take a bath at resale time lol
I think everyone suggesting Porsche can just jack the prices up and save ur resale value u care so much about is forgetting that in normal times they can’t move Porsche very easily. South Bay was also begging me for 2020 carrera s orders at 7% off sticker when they came out in a great economy. We got a Macan there for like 12% off, they offered me a speedster for sticker, they had a pts grey touring there that sat forever….
theres just residual Covid stuff going on still where people went car crazy, the tides are turning fast. The most true thing I ever heard frim a hedge fund manager about markets is trends last longer than you will ever believe both up and down….so buckle up. If the car value matters so much to you just sell it.
i feel people here really don’t know what’s to come. I just picked up a GT car at a tiny adm of 7k and I can assure u I will take a bath at resale time lol
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10-03-2022, 12:12 PM
#2449
Fair enough, and good points I am aware of, more so hoping you are wrong than thinking you will be. I am curious how many buyers there are in your demographic vs. mine being in my mid 30s and open to waiting it out. My hope is that those who do not want to wait and have the money to buy with current ADMs will eventually move on to the next new thing like an RS or whatever else comes out and the 992 GT3 prices come back down to what they were in early 2021, which was $25-$30K over. I have not lived through as many economic cycles as you have, but the one that drove my career towards distressed debt and distressed M&A was the 2008 crisis when I was coming out of undergrad, I've since moved on to more growth oriented areas of finance, but will say when you work a decade plus in distressed debt and RX, you tend to have a pessimistic view on these types of assets engrained into you.
I was coming out of undergrad at Cal during the 1981 - 1982 Bear Market.
Was trading stock options in between classes and during the summer break.
A middle-class kid who was able to hang-out staring at a Quotron machine at a Shearson office in my hometown.
At 22, I learned that the most powerful person in the country was not the President, but the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
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10-03-2022, 12:37 PM
#2450
But there are some historical metrics to use as guidance.
Since 1929, the average length of a Bear Market from peak to trough is 344 days.
This recent slide began on January 3rd, 2022.
But I am keenly aware that November, December, and January are three of the most positive months of the year historically and October has been a noteworthy Bear Killer.
Moreover, not all stocks bottom at the same time. During my first foray into the financial markets, tech-bellwether IBM bottomed 10 months before the beginning of the Bull Market that started in August of '82. It's a market of stocks and not a stock market. - - - At the end of the day, the single biggest signal that the trend has reversed will be when the market is able to rally on bad news, and that may well happen long before the Fed is done with its tightening cycle.
Just some food for thought.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 10-03-2022 at 12:44 PM.
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10-12-2022, 01:55 AM
#2452
Burning Brakes
I guess you missed the pcarmarket auction today: https://www.pcarmarket.com/auction/2...che-911-gt3-5/
tell the dealer to kick the nearest rocks he can find and then pound sand
see you later 992 adm’s
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10-12-2022, 02:18 AM
#2453
You could get a touring brand new for $70K over, and that was over a month ago before the market was softening. +$90K on a touring is what prices were in the early summer. $300K is what dealerships would love to get, I would be amazed if they sold for this now.
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10-12-2022, 02:35 AM
#2454
lol 90k
I guess you missed the pcarmarket auction today: https://www.pcarmarket.com/auction/2...che-911-gt3-5/
tell the dealer to kick the nearest rocks he can find and then pound sand
see you later 992 adm’s
I guess you missed the pcarmarket auction today: https://www.pcarmarket.com/auction/2...che-911-gt3-5/
tell the dealer to kick the nearest rocks he can find and then pound sand
see you later 992 adm’s
not really comparable to a good touring spec. Not that a used touring is worth 90k over to me, just saying, I’d definitely pay some amount over for a pts manual touring
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10-12-2022, 09:25 AM
#2455
10-12-2022, 09:43 AM
#2456
While I agree the market is softening, Depends on the setting. My car storage manager turned down $150K over offer for my car on day of arrival 3 weeks ago. Avg car price in there is $250K thru $2MM. My car is not for sale, Too da-n hard and expensive to secure a blank allocation and a grueling wait follows. Terrible buying experience that is uickly forgotten the first time one hits 9K. This car, it’ll get converted to a dot2 or next series GT car if still ICE and MT.
$90k is wishful thinking at the moment. Good luck!
$90k is wishful thinking at the moment. Good luck!
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porschedetective (10-12-2022)
10-12-2022, 10:37 AM
#2457
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ADM is for people too impatient to wait a year or so for the economy to weaken and supply chains to improve. The 'life is short' stuff is just rationalization for being impatient.
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10-12-2022, 12:10 PM
#2458
If you wait a year, you won't be able to build your own car. Not a dot1 at least. For some people, myself included, the ability to PTS color and spec my own car to the last detail was worth the price of admission, (and the wait) especially being a first time GT car buyer. For anything in the future, you can bet your best lap time that I am not paying ADM ever again. However, you can't tell a man what to do with his money or when/where to spend it. I don't agree with that. For a lot of people a $300K car ADM included is less than a rounding error. My attorney has cases where he makes that in a week and the guy drives a base Panamera, go figure. Different strokes for different folks.
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10-12-2022, 12:34 PM
#2459
Burning Brakes
While I agree the market is softening, Depends on the setting. My car storage manager turned down $150K over offer for my car on day of arrival 3 weeks ago. Avg car price in there is $250K thru $2MM. My car is not for sale, Too da-n hard and expensive to secure a blank allocation and a grueling wait follows. Terrible buying experience that is uickly forgotten the first time one hits 9K. This car, it’ll get converted to a dot2 or next series GT car if still ICE and MT.
$90k is wishful thinking at the moment. Good luck!
$90k is wishful thinking at the moment. Good luck!
thanks
10-12-2022, 12:38 PM
#2460
Burning Brakes
If you wait a year, you won't be able to build your own car. Not a dot1 at least. For some people, myself included, the ability to PTS color and spec my own car to the last detail was worth the price of admission, (and the wait) especially being a first time GT car buyer. For anything in the future, you can bet your best lap time that I am not paying ADM ever again. However, you can't tell a man what to do with his money or when/where to spend it. I don't agree with that. For a lot of people a $300K car ADM included is less than a rounding error. My attorney has cases where he makes that in a week and the guy drives a base Panamera, go figure. Different strokes for different folks.
first time GT buyer, paid massive ADM, and talking about pts….with all due respect I think u should sell your car yesterday so you don’t resent Porsche in 6 months
EDIT: I do put a lot of value in being able to spec my own cars, I do agree with you there. But that means on the flip side I don’t understand how anyone is paying these dumb dumb prices for used 991 or 992 especially when you could or could have spec ur own cheaper
Last edited by welikethetrack; 10-12-2022 at 12:42 PM.