gt38088

Once the gt3 gets superceded by the gt4 if you keep it in the corner it won't get out much. Too similar purpose - best diversify the portfolio and fill different niches to satisfy different needs, sensations, - do it now cos pretty soon we will have no self drive on public roads and we will all be dinosaurs.

gt38088

to further explain I was reading an interesting piece about auto pilot cars and how much could be saved - mega billions - but to implement (say no traffic jams and accidents) it you have to have all cars participating. That leads to mandatory auto pilot. :-(

993 Targa

Interesting about McLaren comments Macca. I wonder how flexible they are on the pricing these days since their prices online seem to be a way off versus bringing one from the UK. The 12C seems particularly steep. People seem to have forgiven them their quibbles now though.

964X33

Wash your mouth out!

O2GO

Been playing catchup on-line after a few busy days. Weather's not looking too good for next weekend :-(

Glad of news of David Rae. Txted him but didn't get a reply. Probably no telecomms (or charge). The sea floor rises are gobsmacking around Kaikoura. It's going to be a long long ride to get back to normal. First earthquake I've felt in Auckland.

Pel

Yes, will need to sell one, a world with self drive cars will be a sad one, I wonder how many years till we realistically see it? 15 years?

Fishing with dynamite mate, you will be missed on Monday.

Maxem

Bolted the dunlops on last night, if the weather was destined to be fine for the whole trip I would do the Toyo's but not too worried. The Dunlops are a good road / track mix and seem to suit a small and light car on track.

Macca

The insurance industry will be a key driver in this. Frankly I say bring it on. Many can surf the web or have a knap on the way to work. Heck they will even install bathrooms in them so you can shave. Women drivers will no longer use the rear vision mirror only for doing their make up. People who drive "real cars" wont beable to insure them any longer but at least they dont have to worry about dodgy drivers lane changing without indicators LOL! Better yet when you are asleep Uber can lease your ride to provide income via taxi services around town and park it on your induction charging pad a few hours before you roll out of bed....

996tnz

Fascinating stuff Graeme and progressing at an exponential rate.

Ford (I think) is almost on the point of bringing out active lane change assist with 'emergency steering assistance'. In other words, the car does those emergency lane change/moose avoidance manouvres for you once it decides you're trying it. Or thinks you should be.

Apart from one or two japanese constructors, no-one develops their own ABS and stability systems these days so almost all car brands are just getting dragged along in the same direction. And that direction is 'car knows best', across almost all systems. As I've intimated here before, the day may be closer than we think where we'll need to hold the equivalent of an F1 superlicence, a commercial pilot's medical clearance plus have at least ten years of no-fault driving to drive a primarily human controlled car. Contrast that with a system controlled one, where even a pulse may eventually just be optional. And get ready for our manually controlled driving to also be restricted to the quietest times and best weathers.

For my part, the longer it takes to get to that point, the better. But I am conflicted too actually. I don't want to go back to manual timing advance levers, manual cranks, or even manual chokes. I'll take rain sensitive wipers and even (fully defeatable) adaptive cruise control for braindead commutes in hour-long rush hour traffic jams. Being able to program a car's ventilation to come on half an hour before leaving the office is cool too. And I like cars that automatically adapt their tune to the octane that's in their tank, and ones that automatically switch the cabin air to recirculate while reversing. Even height-adjustable air suspension and adjustable dampers get my vote. And who doesn't like a great sound system. Active four wheel steering, automated transmissions (though they should have an instant sport button rather than just be 'adaptive'), are also fine by me if they're both good and predictably consistent in operation.

But some of the stuff that most people don't even blink at annoys me, particularly anything that dilutes or reduces my direct control of the car. Like non-fully defeatable ABS and stabiliity systems (with ice mode, emergency brake assist, accelerator lock out on braking, engine torque 'control', and handicapped handbrakes near the top of the list). Even that little artificial deadzone resistance that goes with the first mm or so of turning a steering wheel with electric steering assist bugs me (though I know it saves fuel). Integrated tracking and event data recording can take a running jump too as far as I'm concerned.

And yes, I know, some of those likes and dislikes do conflict. Hey, I also want to be able to just tell the car to take the kids to school, or to pick me and my mates up from the pub etc. But I'm looking to eat that cake while having it, which means full manual override and the associated controls. Already, it's very a rare new car that still allows that. The regulatory winds are only blowing in one direction, and it isn't towards real driving. Paradoxically then perhaps, I'm left hoping that automated cars get through their awkward adolescence as quickly as possible, so that they soon get good enough at driving around us humans that we'll be allowed to really keep driving ourselves when we want to.

My most memorable on-road passenger ride was on a 1908 Cadillac a few years ago. Here's hoping that in a hundred years' time, there's still a place on the road for the centenarians we are buying new today...

gt38088

I reckon the technology will be ready within 5 years but the political side of the implementation will be the thing holding it back. Unfortunately the masses aren't like us and will think its great especially since fewer ppl will need to buy cars for personalized transport.

The technology will certainly be able to drive around the avoiding humans but that partly defeats the purpose and gains like under full automation you won't need traffic lights and traffic will flow much more efficiently - it will be the humans that cause the jams so the gains can't be fully implemented unless there are no dumb humans driving. Alas Walt the signs are bad...

PHG

which way you heading this Xmas Jason

996tnz

Here's one reasonably official stab at a timeline for Australia:



From an organisation dedicated to accelerating that timeline as much as possible: http://advi.org.au/, and originally sourced from the Europeans: http://www.ertrac.org/uploads/docume...iving-2015.pdf

A related and pretty readable discussion paper on what Aussie regulators are expected to look at is here:https://www.claytonutz.com/ArticleDo...-2016.pdf.aspx

If that timeline plays out, we're looking at more ten years than fifteen Pel. I had thought that mass adoption would lag those milestones by the average passenger car age of 14 years, but I suspect that some of the advantages of fully automated cars will help drive down the average age of our national fleet, so maybe a ten year lag between seeing one or two examples of level 4 or 5 automated vehicles on the drive in to work, and the point where more than a quarter of the fleet came out that way or have been upgraded or retro-fitted.

I am looking forward to the convenience aspects of course. This will revolutionise many more aspects of our lives than we foresee. Mostly in ways we'll appreciate, but naturally too in some that we won't.

996tnz

The biggest limitation of current driver 'assistance' or automation systems is the high degree of inference they still rely on, ie their zero or poor environmental and situational awareness. A car measures a wheel locking up faster and at lower Gs than a coded threshold, so throws the braking system into ice mode for instance, and so puts a ceiling of about 0.2G on permitted deceleration, for at least half a second (ie 14 meters of road at 100 kph). Now the driver may know that it's a summer's day and they just braked heavily over some bumps, unweighting the rear wheels and so allowing that sudden momentary lockup, but the system wasn't equipped and coded to work that out. So it figures you're on ice or on a surface slick with coolant or oil and takes away most of your braking ability in a helpful effort to keep the car more steerable. The system also doesn't know that you're headed into a tight right-hander off a long straight, with only a few trees screening a precipitous drop beyond the narrow berm of course. And some researchers still wonder why single-driver run off road crashes went up markedly with the introduction of ABS.

Newer systems have more sensors, including various combinations of radar, lidar, IR, ultrasound etc, but all still reflect their coders' assumptions around what those inputs actually mean. And the more complex the controlling systems become, the more room they provide for any mistaken assumptions to stack on top of each other. That's even before various customisers and tweakers get to work on modifying them, or setting out to trick them deliberately, along the lines of various exploits already seen:

https://www.wired.com/2015/07/hacker...-jeep-highway/

https://www.wired.com/2015/08/hacker...on-car-gadget/

etc

This is not new of course. Automated pilot assistance systems have brought down more than a few aircraft, generally because the system had a different idea of what people wanted the plane to do than those piloting it.

Example 1, pilots doing a low flyby at an airshow, but ground proximity sensors convince the plane it should be in final stage landing mode. So it severely limits throttle response as it was programmed to. Cue crash into forest past runway's end, despite the pilots' system-blocked efforts to apply power in an effort to pull up.

Example 2, pilots in early ascent after take-off try to throttle back the engines momentarily to cut runaway engine fires post bird strike - per instructed best practice. The plane's automated control systems know it is in early take-off phase though, so refuse to allow the throttles to be cut by more than about 10 or 20 per cent. Cue crash as the engines kept burning.

Once upon a time you had to buy a ticket to get a front row seat to these sorts of scenarios but they are increasingly just waiting to be found in the kit we have in our garages. And that's just before anything physical actually breaks or malfunctions. Even the big Koenigsegg One:1 crash at the Nurburgring was put down to just a single failed ABS sensor. An older study found that about a quarter of ABS equipped cars that were either older than 10 years, or had more than about 160,000 kms on the clock, had faults in their ABS systems. So that doesn't bode too well for the reliability of more complex new generation control systems either.

Chris_chch

Before the robots take over... Anyone know this car? Looks to have spent the last 20 years dong not a whole lot... Also has conflicting origin? Says NZ New, but first registered in 86? Rad color!

http://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/used...1203332438.htm

996tnz

Yes a great colour. Between his previous SC ownership and the PCNZ sticker on that car, Paul may have some knowledge of it?