A place to discuss all things ADM
06-12-2023, 03:38 AM
#6391
The market is a discounting machine.
It looks forward. It's quite possible that it has already "discounted" a Recession back in Q4 of last year when the SPX declined to 3500 in October.
The market is up at 4300 SPX not only because the Fed has chosen to "pause" rate hikes for the time being, but also because the analyst community is projecting earnings growth to return in the second half of the year. Currently, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 is 8.2%. If 8.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest year over year earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q1 of 2022 (9.4%) At the sector level, 9 of the 11 sectors are predicted to report year over year earnings growth in Q4-2023. Moreover, 5 of these 9 sectors are expected to report double-digit earnings growth for the quarter. This is what is DRIVING THE MARKET.
Yes, this currently rally is displaying narrow breadth.
But that breadth can in fact expand and fund managers who have been underweight and underperforming this year will be forced back into the market with bids.
The people that have been repeatedly pointing out the obvious in the economy dont understand that the market has already discounted the obvious.
This is why they dont understand why the market is up at 4300. They dont understand what the market is shooting for looking forward.
It looks forward. It's quite possible that it has already "discounted" a Recession back in Q4 of last year when the SPX declined to 3500 in October.
The market is up at 4300 SPX not only because the Fed has chosen to "pause" rate hikes for the time being, but also because the analyst community is projecting earnings growth to return in the second half of the year. Currently, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 is 8.2%. If 8.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest year over year earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q1 of 2022 (9.4%) At the sector level, 9 of the 11 sectors are predicted to report year over year earnings growth in Q4-2023. Moreover, 5 of these 9 sectors are expected to report double-digit earnings growth for the quarter. This is what is DRIVING THE MARKET.
Yes, this currently rally is displaying narrow breadth.
But that breadth can in fact expand and fund managers who have been underweight and underperforming this year will be forced back into the market with bids.
The people that have been repeatedly pointing out the obvious in the economy dont understand that the market has already discounted the obvious.
This is why they dont understand why the market is up at 4300. They dont understand what the market is shooting for looking forward.
Besides the Fed waging their losing war against inflation, the other significant threat was the debt limit chaos, and that’s been resolved with a whimper. The economy is facing much smaller issues than 2008.
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Diablo Dude (06-12-2023)
06-12-2023, 08:22 AM
#6392
Rennlist Member
Just now we have the first vacancy (2 months after eviction of last tenant) ever. We had a waitlist 6 months ago. I’m sure it will be filled in the next two weeks but it’s starting to show signes of weakening.
Batting down the hatches as they say. Did that 3 years ago, so I’ve been early = wrong so far but im selling, not buying. Invested in local startup bank, may help with financing a bit.
The last time I got out was Jan 2008 and bought back (assets about 25c on dollar, and Dow under 7000) in 2010-2016. Was a good ride, after doubling again in the last 3 years, maybe it will happen again.
Last edited by TRAKCAR; 06-12-2023 at 08:42 AM.
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IRunalot (06-13-2023)
06-12-2023, 12:24 PM
#6393
Rennlist Member
06-13-2023, 12:45 AM
#6394
the market probably expects any such recession to be short and relatively mild, as these things go, since it’d be entirely artificially engineered by the Fed. The economic fundamentals are all too good. People are employed at record levels, and employed people spend money. Prices are high, profits are high. I continue to expect the heads-I-win, tails-you-lose outcome for the folks buying super cars. Either rates stay high because profits stay high, or rates get cut because profits tumble. Either way, there will be money floating around to drive up prices on hot luxury goods.
Besides the Fed waging their losing war against inflation, the other significant threat was the debt limit chaos, and that’s been resolved with a whimper. The economy is facing much smaller issues than 2008.
Besides the Fed waging their losing war against inflation, the other significant threat was the debt limit chaos, and that’s been resolved with a whimper. The economy is facing much smaller issues than 2008.
I thought we already had 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth
my portfolio been looking like **** for 18 mo
feels like it already happened
06-13-2023, 02:51 AM
#6395
06-13-2023, 08:54 AM
#6396
Rennlist Member
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
Posts: 13,027
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I don’t know what V200 status is. Have a lot of cars, and the next GT3 isn’t a ‘dream car’, just another really good car among many. Heck, it’s more my wife’s car than mine, cuz I’m getting a 991.2 3RS this week. Build locks in a week, and car will be delivered in August if not delayed, that’s all I need to know. Went over the build last night with her, she likes what I picked, she has similar (good) taste.
DD’s jealousy is palpable. Should spend less time hating on RL and more time driving his nice car in the beautiful Bay area. Take a coastal drive, it’s epic. Everyone needs to do things that are good for their mental health, no shame in it. Life can be hard.
DD’s jealousy is palpable. Should spend less time hating on RL and more time driving his nice car in the beautiful Bay area. Take a coastal drive, it’s epic. Everyone needs to do things that are good for their mental health, no shame in it. Life can be hard.
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06-13-2023, 10:26 AM
#6398
Burning Brakes
Anyone looking for a rather unusual PTS Touring for $270k?
https://tacticalfleet.com/2022-porsc...nerid=71870873
red brakes, no leather, no FAL
https://tacticalfleet.com/2022-porsc...nerid=71870873
red brakes, no leather, no FAL
06-13-2023, 12:41 PM
#6399
Rennlist Member
I still don't get why everybody is continually being ******** in here. This thread is basically the same people being petty. I have my allocation for what I wanted at MSRP and am picking up in Germany in July so I'm leaving this toxic *** thread.
06-13-2023, 02:23 PM
#6400
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GTJake (06-15-2023)
06-13-2023, 02:56 PM
#6401
Anyone looking for a rather unusual PTS Touring for $270k?
https://tacticalfleet.com/2022-porsc...nerid=71870873
red brakes, no leather, no FAL
https://tacticalfleet.com/2022-porsc...nerid=71870873
red brakes, no leather, no FAL
06-13-2023, 04:21 PM
#6402
Burning Brakes
yeah, seems original owner did PTS and then ran out of money. Car probably only has $180k MSRP and they want $90k over
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usctrojanGT3 (06-13-2023)
06-13-2023, 11:05 PM
#6403
Race Car
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Diablo Dude (06-13-2023)
06-13-2023, 11:10 PM
#6404
