A place to discuss all things ADM
06-09-2023, 06:21 PM
#6376
06-09-2023, 06:55 PM
#6377
I'm not a bear/naysayer/stock guru, but I think it's a bit uninformed to assume that a recession couldn't happen. Imminent? Perhaps not, but I'd wager you a bottle of your favorite whiskey (read: alcohol) of choice under $500 that we will see some sort of downturn by Q2 of 2024. If recent history is any guide, it doesn't take much for the market to sour.
Just gonna drop this right here:
"The S&P 500 is up 8.9% so far in 2023, or 9.7% including dividends. But the lion's share of that increase is due to the surging prices of a few of the largest companies. The big five that are responsible for the vast majority of the stock market's 2023 gains are Apple (up 36% this year), Microsoft (37%), Alphabet (39%), Amazon (44%), and current stock market darling Nvidia, which has surged 159% on AI-related excitement. Without them, the overall market (including dividend payments) would be up just 1.5% this year, according to data provided by Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. If you also remove the contributions from the two other largest tech companies — Meta (up 120% in 2023) and Tesla (66%) — the S&P 500 would be slightly underwater for the year."
Robust hiring. Inflation that is cooling but still fairly hot. China's sputtering post-COVID re-opening/recovery. Really the only silver lining is Americans are still spending with reckless abandon (present company included). Hopefully we're wrong because I'm only up about 8% in my portfolio for the quarter, but I'm still betting we won't get out of this completely unscathed.
Just gonna drop this right here:
"The S&P 500 is up 8.9% so far in 2023, or 9.7% including dividends. But the lion's share of that increase is due to the surging prices of a few of the largest companies. The big five that are responsible for the vast majority of the stock market's 2023 gains are Apple (up 36% this year), Microsoft (37%), Alphabet (39%), Amazon (44%), and current stock market darling Nvidia, which has surged 159% on AI-related excitement. Without them, the overall market (including dividend payments) would be up just 1.5% this year, according to data provided by Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. If you also remove the contributions from the two other largest tech companies — Meta (up 120% in 2023) and Tesla (66%) — the S&P 500 would be slightly underwater for the year."
Robust hiring. Inflation that is cooling but still fairly hot. China's sputtering post-COVID re-opening/recovery. Really the only silver lining is Americans are still spending with reckless abandon (present company included). Hopefully we're wrong because I'm only up about 8% in my portfolio for the quarter, but I'm still betting we won't get out of this completely unscathed.
06-09-2023, 07:15 PM
#6378
Burning Brakes
Eventually every market doom and gloom predictor I have known over the last 46 years was right but when I started in the equity portfolio management business in 1977 the Dow Average was around 750 and we would all debate whether it could ever reach 1,000…
the question for investors is what will the market averages be in say 2025 or even 2028? My bet without much hesitation the market for equity stocks will be a lot higher than it is today and a new 911 will cost tens of thousands more than today and will be electric.
the real cost of my Sports car obsession is not the price of my five Porsche sports cars but rather not having that $775,000 in the market over the next five years to appreciate effortlessly.
But at 71 and having some heart issues - I don’t care about the lost dollars and I figure in 2050 I can almost surely sell all these cars for more than my cost — okay maybe in 2075.
the question for investors is what will the market averages be in say 2025 or even 2028? My bet without much hesitation the market for equity stocks will be a lot higher than it is today and a new 911 will cost tens of thousands more than today and will be electric.
the real cost of my Sports car obsession is not the price of my five Porsche sports cars but rather not having that $775,000 in the market over the next five years to appreciate effortlessly.
But at 71 and having some heart issues - I don’t care about the lost dollars and I figure in 2050 I can almost surely sell all these cars for more than my cost — okay maybe in 2075.
06-09-2023, 07:45 PM
#6379
Rennlist Member
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
Posts: 13,025
Received 4,342 Likes
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2,474 Posts
I spent close to $20k on a short vacation this winter with my family. Less than a week and not that fancy or fun. Daliy market fluctuations come and go on my phone and are what they are.
BUT the enjoyment I got out of spec'ing my car...overthinking a $180 gas cap...agonizing over choosing PDK and a wing despite RL telling me I was throwing away money...was far far and away more exciting and satisfying to me. Getting trinkets in the mail from Porsche. Doing an unveiling with my dad. I hope my dealership doesn't read this but it was worth every penny.
Unplugging now and heading for a track day!
BUT the enjoyment I got out of spec'ing my car...overthinking a $180 gas cap...agonizing over choosing PDK and a wing despite RL telling me I was throwing away money...was far far and away more exciting and satisfying to me. Getting trinkets in the mail from Porsche. Doing an unveiling with my dad. I hope my dealership doesn't read this but it was worth every penny.
Unplugging now and heading for a track day!
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McNamara (06-10-2023)
06-09-2023, 07:48 PM
#6380
Rennlist Member
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
Posts: 13,025
Received 4,342 Likes
on
2,474 Posts
Eventually every market doom and gloom predictor I have known over the last 46 years was right but when I started in the equity portfolio management business in 1977 the Dow Average was around 750 and we would all debate whether it could ever reach 1,000…
the question for investors is what will the market averages be in say 2025 or even 2028? My bet without much hesitation the market for equity stocks will be a lot higher than it is today and a new 911 will cost tens of thousands more than today and will be electric.
the real cost of my Sports car obsession is not the price of my five Porsche sports cars but rather not having that $775,000 in the market over the next five years to appreciate effortlessly.
But at 71 and having some heart issues - I don’t care about the lost dollars and I figure in 2050 I can almost surely sell all these cars for more than my cost — okay maybe in 2075.
the question for investors is what will the market averages be in say 2025 or even 2028? My bet without much hesitation the market for equity stocks will be a lot higher than it is today and a new 911 will cost tens of thousands more than today and will be electric.
the real cost of my Sports car obsession is not the price of my five Porsche sports cars but rather not having that $775,000 in the market over the next five years to appreciate effortlessly.
But at 71 and having some heart issues - I don’t care about the lost dollars and I figure in 2050 I can almost surely sell all these cars for more than my cost — okay maybe in 2075.
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revolve77 (06-15-2023)
06-09-2023, 08:11 PM
#6381
+$72K over msrp for Buyer. Small sample
size but for those who care (I don’t) it may be a marker.
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/20...t3-touring-39/
size but for those who care (I don’t) it may be a marker.
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/20...t3-touring-39/
06-10-2023, 01:34 AM
#6382
+$72K over msrp for Buyer. Small sample
size but for those who care (I don’t) it may be a marker.
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/20...t3-touring-39/
size but for those who care (I don’t) it may be a marker.
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/20...t3-touring-39/
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/20...t3-touring-40/
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Diablo Dude (06-10-2023)
06-10-2023, 07:50 PM
#6383
It looks forward. It's quite possible that it has already "discounted" a Recession back in Q4 of last year when the SPX declined to 3500 in October.
The market is up at 4300 SPX not only because the Fed has chosen to "pause" rate hikes for the time being, but also because the analyst community is projecting earnings growth to return in the second half of the year. Currently, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 is 8.2%. If 8.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest year over year earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q1 of 2022 (9.4%) At the sector level, 9 of the 11 sectors are predicted to report year over year earnings growth in Q4-2023. Moreover, 5 of these 9 sectors are expected to report double-digit earnings growth for the quarter. This is what is DRIVING THE MARKET.
Yes, this currently rally is displaying narrow breadth.
But that breadth can in fact expand and fund managers who have been underweight and underperforming this year will be forced back into the market with bids.
The people that have been repeatedly pointing out the obvious in the economy dont understand that the market has already discounted the obvious.
This is why they dont understand why the market is up at 4300. They dont understand what the market is shooting for looking forward.
Insight/2023/06.2023/06.09.2023_Earnings%20Insight/01-s%26p-500-earnings-growth-q1-2023-q4-2023.png?width=1224&height=704&name=01-s%26p-500-earnings-growth-q1-2023-q4-2023.png)
Insight/2023/06.2023/06.09.2023_Earnings%20Insight/02-s%26p-500-earings-growth-q4-2023.png?width=1222&height=703&name=02-s%26p-500-earings-growth-q4-2023.png)
Insight/2023/06.2023/06.09.2023_Earnings%20Insight/03-top-contributors-to-s%26p-500-q4-2023-earnings-growth-eps-year-over-year.png?width=1223&height=704&name=03-top-contributors-to-s%26p-500-q4-2023-earnings-growth-eps-year-over-year.png)
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 06-10-2023 at 08:06 PM.
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AlexCeres (06-11-2023)
06-10-2023, 09:00 PM
#6384
Rennlist Member
I'm not a bear/naysayer/stock guru, but I think it's a bit uninformed to assume that a recession couldn't happen. Imminent? Perhaps not, but I'd wager you a bottle of your favorite whiskey (read: alcohol) of choice under $500 that we will see some sort of downturn by Q2 of 2024. If recent history is any guide, it doesn't take much for the market to sour.
Just gonna drop this right here:
"The S&P 500 is up 8.9% so far in 2023, or 9.7% including dividends. But the lion's share of that increase is due to the surging prices of a few of the largest companies. The big five that are responsible for the vast majority of the stock market's 2023 gains are Apple (up 36% this year), Microsoft (37%), Alphabet (39%), Amazon (44%), and current stock market darling Nvidia, which has surged 159% on AI-related excitement. Without them, the overall market (including dividend payments) would be up just 1.5% this year, according to data provided by Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. If you also remove the contributions from the two other largest tech companies — Meta (up 120% in 2023) and Tesla (66%) — the S&P 500 would be slightly underwater for the year."
Robust hiring. Inflation that is cooling but still fairly hot. China's sputtering post-COVID re-opening/recovery. Really the only silver lining is Americans are still spending with reckless abandon (present company included). Hopefully we're wrong because I'm only up about 8% in my portfolio for the quarter, but I'm still betting we won't get out of this completely unscathed.
Just gonna drop this right here:
"The S&P 500 is up 8.9% so far in 2023, or 9.7% including dividends. But the lion's share of that increase is due to the surging prices of a few of the largest companies. The big five that are responsible for the vast majority of the stock market's 2023 gains are Apple (up 36% this year), Microsoft (37%), Alphabet (39%), Amazon (44%), and current stock market darling Nvidia, which has surged 159% on AI-related excitement. Without them, the overall market (including dividend payments) would be up just 1.5% this year, according to data provided by Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. If you also remove the contributions from the two other largest tech companies — Meta (up 120% in 2023) and Tesla (66%) — the S&P 500 would be slightly underwater for the year."
Robust hiring. Inflation that is cooling but still fairly hot. China's sputtering post-COVID re-opening/recovery. Really the only silver lining is Americans are still spending with reckless abandon (present company included). Hopefully we're wrong because I'm only up about 8% in my portfolio for the quarter, but I'm still betting we won't get out of this completely unscathed.
FYI, every month for the past 9 years I've been on rennlist there's been a poster predicting a recession coming soon/ in the next 3 months, next 6 months, just you wait and see, blah, blah, lol.
You know what? I'm thinking its not that easy to predict what'll happen in the future and more often than not we get it wrong. I'll just thank my lucky stars I can afford these GT cars and go for a drive.
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AlexCeres (06-12-2023)
06-10-2023, 10:30 PM
#6385
I now exclusively read this thread for my financial updates
06-10-2023, 10:40 PM
#6386
Rennlist Member
06-10-2023, 11:35 PM
#6387
Race Car
Eventually every market doom and gloom predictor I have known over the last 46 years was right but when I started in the equity portfolio management business in 1977 the Dow Average was around 750 and we would all debate whether it could ever reach 1,000…
the question for investors is what will the market averages be in say 2025 or even 2028? My bet without much hesitation the market for equity stocks will be a lot higher than it is today and a new 911 will cost tens of thousands more than today and will be electric.
the real cost of my Sports car obsession is not the price of my five Porsche sports cars but rather not having that $775,000 in the market over the next five years to appreciate effortlessly.
But at 71 and having some heart issues - I don’t care about the lost dollars and I figure in 2050 I can almost surely sell all these cars for more than my cost — okay maybe in 2075.
the question for investors is what will the market averages be in say 2025 or even 2028? My bet without much hesitation the market for equity stocks will be a lot higher than it is today and a new 911 will cost tens of thousands more than today and will be electric.
the real cost of my Sports car obsession is not the price of my five Porsche sports cars but rather not having that $775,000 in the market over the next five years to appreciate effortlessly.
But at 71 and having some heart issues - I don’t care about the lost dollars and I figure in 2050 I can almost surely sell all these cars for more than my cost — okay maybe in 2075.
If no, markets will keep going up.
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AlexCeres (06-11-2023)
06-11-2023, 11:25 AM
#6388
Rennlist Member
Was talking to my buddy who has ~100 flex space units mostly for small business, 1500 to 5000sf, his occupancy is over 95% but he hasn't had one inquiry for space in the last 45 days. This is small town USA.
Peter
Peter
06-11-2023, 08:41 PM
#6389
Seems like a decent deal given the basic color one that went for $93K over a week ago. $93K for a white car seems excessive given the PTS prices.
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/20...t3-touring-40/
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/20...t3-touring-40/
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WCGhost (06-13-2023)
06-12-2023, 01:49 AM
#6390
