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Well said. I 'hide' my winged car b/c I am embarrassed to drive it in my home town. No one would look twice at a touring next to Teslas, a horde of Cayenne turbos etc,
I just think that over time - the Touring allure / premium will fade. None of these 992s are limited or rare.
Don't get me wrong - I LOVE MT tourings - just wonder if the premium will sticking.
That's a very good point, real "track focused" cars from Porsche, Ferrari etc. always have a premium when you look at the collector car market. That would seem to give the winged car an edge long term, as the Touring isn't a rare special edition like the 911R or the rumored ST. On the other hand, we are heading into the end of the ICE and that does give the manual "track" "drivers" cars an edge as well. I think there will be a high demand for both as it looks like even Porsche is pushing the electric front pretty hard. It will be interesting to see how the winged vs Touring values play out over the next 10 years,
There are enough of us that don't want or enjoy a 1000hp EVs with giant LCD dashboards.
To add to this, merely looking at stock indices you might be fooled into thinking that the market is doing really well and that activity is strong. But that would be quite an incorrect reflection of what’s going on under the surface. Eight of the largest tech stocks now account for 30% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization and account for the shift from a bear to a tentative new bull market. This narrowing of market breadth is unsustainable. A market is healthy when more stocks are rising together.
Yes, but this is well known by professionals and even most retail investors.
You are stating the obvious. It's been mentioned in all kinds of financial media recently, including the WSJ this week.
And as far as most investors are concerned, their IRA money or investment accounts are most likely reflecting the INDEXES and not individual stocks, per their investment advisor.
With the exception of the keyboard "warriors" out there that are always bearish and yelling that the "sky is falling" - - - but have no skin in the game, the "doom and gloom" crowd that has been repeatedly shorting the market averages this year have been crushed.
Yes, but this is well known by professionals and even most retail investors.
You are stating the obvious. It's been mentioned in all kinds of financial media recently, including the WSJ this week.
And as far as most investors are concerned, their IRA money or investment accounts are most likely reflecting the INDEXES and not individual stocks, per their investment advisor.
With the exception of the keyboard "warriors" out there that are always bearish and yelling that the "sky is falling" - - - but have no skin in the game, the "doom and gloom" crowd that has been repeatedly shorting the market averages this year have been crushed.
Yes... the fact that most have exposure to the broader market instead of only megacap-8 stocks is precisely why I pointed this out.
Originally Posted by Diablo Dude
The NDX is currently +13.3% since this post in mid-March. It traded as high as 14,595 this morning.
Havent heard from Boltsfan and the other "doom and gloomers" for awhile now. I can imagine that USCtrojan has lost more money shorting the stock market than what most of us paid in an ADM.
You pointed out NDX performance. I am stating the "obvious" that this outperformance is not indicative of the broader market nor economy.
There is very little good news right now as it relates to the economy. Consumers are pulling back. On top of that, the resumption of student loans will cause a lot of people to have to further cut back on spending. Credit has been tightening and will continue to do so. Some people don't realize the magnitude of the credit tightening. Not only are the small and regional banks pulling back due to the run on deposits, the bigger banks are also pulling back. There is concern that new banking regulations will adopted, imposing further capital requirements to address the banking situation, so banks are not making as many loans in anticipation of needing to meet the new capital requirements. Commercial real estate is a complete mess right now. And on, and on, and on.
You are retired so all you probably do is read things here and there on the Internet about what's going on in the real world. That's fine, but you are also very selective as to what you point to in how the economy will be just dandy. On the other hand, I am in the business world living this sort of stuff everyday.
You're funny.
I'm "retired" yet have 7 figures in the equity market and two very concentrated stock specific positions.
I'm still very active in the markets, but you dont sound like you are given that you've missed a massive move this year.
You continue to make the "rookie" mistake of believing that there is a strong correlation between how the equity market moves and what the economy is doing.
I warned you months ago that "What is obvious, is obviously wrong.".... but you couldnt figure out what that meant. Well, case in point the market is up at 4300 SPX and 20% off the lows from last October and yet you continue to repeat all of the things that are wrong with the economy that every single institutional investor already knows. Mr. Market clearly doesnt care.
But you continue to parrot all of the things that are OBVIOUS . . . and really have nothing to do with making money in the market.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 06-09-2023 at 12:30 PM.
You pointed out NDX performance. I am stating the "obvious" that this outperformance is not indicative of the broader market nor economy.
Feel free to show me data quantifying the correlation between the economy and the equity market.
It's not the correlation that you and Boltsfan think it is.
Yes... the fact that most have exposure to the broader market instead of only megacap-8 stocks is precisely why I pointed this out.
The average investor is in a balanced portfolio with no (overweighted) specific stock risk and involved in passive INDEX funds reflecting the performance in the major market averages.
For them, the "broader market" is an INDEX FUND. And they are doing well because those funds are cap-weighted.
It doesnt matter that the INDEX is being pushed up by a handful of stocks.
For example, I currently own 26,000 shares of EXAS.
I'm not your "average" investor that is simply tracking the major market averages via INDEX funds in an effort to minimize risk and increase diversification.
But according to Boltsfan, I'm a retired guy that occasionally reads a few things "here and there" about the economy while he is living it every day in the business world.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 06-09-2023 at 12:40 PM.
Feel free to show me data quantifying the correlation between the economy and the equity market.
It's not the correlation that you and Boltsfan think it is.
Nowhere did I state the economy and equity markets were correlated. They are if anything, diverging. The credit markets have also diverged widely from equity markets - this is not sustainable.
Originally Posted by Diablo Dude
The average investor is in a balanced portfolio with no (overweighted) specific stock risk and involved in passive INDEX funds reflecting the performance in the major market averages.
For them, the "broader market" is an INDEX FUND. And they are doing well because those funds are cap-weighted.
It doesnt matter that the INDEX is being pushed up by a handful of stocks.
For example, I currently own 26,000 shares of EXAS.
I'm not your "average" investor that is simply tracking the major market averages via INDEX funds in an effort to minimize risk and increase diversification.
But according to Boltsfan, I'm a retired guy that occasionally reads a few things "here and there" about the economy while he is living it every day in the business world.
Again, reiterating the point I made: the current outperformance of a stock index does not mean the overall market is doing well. Limited breadth can precede a downturn and also masks investor anxiety.
Do what you want man. I'm a tech investment banker, what do I know?
Nowhere did I state the economy and equity markets were correlated. They are if anything, diverging. The credit markets have also diverged widely from equity markets - this is not sustainable.
Again, reiterating the point I made: the current outperformance of a stock index does not mean the overall market is doing well. Limited breadth can precede a downturn and also masks investor anxiety.
Do what you want man. I'm a tech investment banker, what do I know?
Whether or not something is "sustainable" in your opinion, has absolutely NOTHING to do with what is actually happening.
You (and others here) continue to ignore the performance of the U.S. equity market year to date. Mr. Market clearly doesnt care about the yield curve having been inverted for a full year.
You sound like youre rationalizing why you havent been involved in this market and making money.
Three weeks ago, data showed that investors werent positioned for a rally.
Systematic trend following funds have been raising their equity exposure to slightly above netural for the first time since late 2021.
Meanwhile, discretionary investors have been heavily UNDERWEIGHT the market. Equity exposure is at its lowest level in a year and at only the 9th percentile historically.
I'm well aware that limited breadth can precede a downturn.
But that is a bridge to cross once the market reverses its current uptrend.
Traders that have fought this uptrend since late last year (given everything that you and Boltsfan have highlighted) have gotten CRUSHED.
I'm a former floor trader of 10 years in NYC from a previous life.
I'm also a medical diagnostics investor that has made enough money that I never have to work again.
But hey . . . what do I know?
Enjoy your Weekend.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 06-09-2023 at 01:13 PM.
I've paid an ADM in the past, having made (and paid) for that decision I tended to enjoy the car less. There was definitely some resentment toward myself and a self loathing type of feeling whenever I'd look at it or drive it.
I like the Touring and wanted to be in the position for an allocation for one. When my number came up it was for a winged version. Objectively speaking the winged version is the higher performance option and the GT3 was designed with it in mind.
I don't think I won't enjoy the car. I plan to keep it for a long time and unfortunately, this was the best deal I could get given my specific circumstances.
Yep - all th experts are giving their predictions on the stock market? So heck here is mine. I am a guy with an mba that has only had one job for 47 years - since graduating with my Masters in investment and finance. Managing money in equities. I believe chartists are fools or simple lying as any rational person knows past movements short term is random and unconnected to future movement. I invest in stocks as businesses. Companies that grow earnings much more often than not appreciate. Simple. Buy the stocks that will increase earnings. But under all the short term movements is the constant growth in the accumulated assets from earnings and therefore their value increases. In 1977 when I started as a stock broker the Dow average was at 750.
in terms of the economy- no recession. Finally people are going back to work, they spend money and help restore the supply chain such that products become more readily available and therefore falling inflation. Shutting down this economy was the dumbest move in our history. And was all political and not medical. They shut down the economy and borrowed trillions and handed it out to keep businesses afloat and people from losing everything - stopped debt payments. The goal was to provide an excuse for ballot harvesting and by mail voting as the Dems have more voters but the problem is they don’t vote while Republicans are fewer but they are more diligent about voting. And this worked.
Remember the riots? All poised to also convince voters that when Trump is President chaos follows him - even disease and death. It worked.
In terms of Porsche availability- most dealers are now holding some new 911’s on their floor and from my dealers they are willing to sell them at Msrp.
we will be back to the conditions pre - Covid when dealers would give you a courtesy discount of several thousand dollars. And allocations were not that difficult to obtain for almost any model.
I have a couple 911’s being delivered in the next two weeks or so and both are at MSRP - but then I am a good ongoing customer not a one time buyer. And I fully expect my cars to devalue as they should they are used and Porsche has new better ones constantly for sale.
On the stock market buy companies that pay dividends- even a small amount- shows market maturity and don’t trade the market swings - as the March is always higher and sitting on the curb won’t get you up the hill. No option trading, no charting foolishness— buy companies with strong market positions and which have inflation proof growth - and hopefully some real organic growth as well.
last - don’t buy expensive cars like I do - have you seen what it costs for an oil change these days?
why should you enjoy your money - your kids will do it for you. I would be interested in knowing how much of the money 50 to 80 year old guys spend on fancy cars comes from inheritance - my guess is a high percentage.
I am more excited that my 911 T has the gloss black aero kit than I am that my largest position for myself and my clients - Microsoft has moved from $250 to $330 in just weeks. Perspective is everything right!
this car is on the sunshine ace headed to Houston and then to PECLA for delivery in early July. My big regret lately is I should have made the wheels gloss black to match with the gloss aerokit pieces. But oddly the only way you could get the side mirrors is in this titanium silver color and matching those to the wheels and the 911 T strip below the doors might work out okay.
The value of the 1,000 largest companies in America will continue to rise no matter who is President and salaries will rise and tax receipts will rise and despite the deficit the country will not crumble - not in the lifetime of anyone in this forum that is buying $100,000 plus sports cars ….
the real problem for all of us on this forum is time…. As it is definitely disappearing like sand in a bottle turned upside down.
I am more excited that my 911 T has the gloss black aero kit than I am that my largest position for myself and my clients - Microsoft has moved from $250 to $330 in just weeks. Perspective is everything right!
I spent close to $20k on a short vacation this winter with my family. Less than a week and not that fancy or fun. Daliy market fluctuations come and go on my phone and are what they are.
BUT the enjoyment I got out of spec'ing my car...overthinking a $180 gas cap...agonizing over choosing PDK and a wing despite RL telling me I was throwing away money...was far far and away more exciting and satisfying to me. Getting trinkets in the mail from Porsche. Doing an unveiling with my dad. I hope my dealership doesn't read this but it was worth every penny.
Unplugging now and heading for a track day!
I spent close to $20k on a short vacation this winter with my family. Less than a week and not that fancy or fun. Daliy market fluctuations come and go on my phone and are what they are.
BUT the enjoyment I got out of spec'ing my car...overthinking a $180 gas cap...agonizing over choosing PDK and a wing despite RL telling me I was throwing away money...was far far and away more exciting and satisfying to me. Getting trinkets in the mail from Porsche. Doing an unveiling with my dad. I hope my dealership doesn't read this but it was worth every penny.
Unplugging now and heading for a track day!
overthinking a gas cap was more fun than a vacation with your family?
06-09-2023, 12:01 PM
