Diablo Dude

Why would anyone be afraid of that clown Michael Flynn and the garbage that he spews?
Yeah, there's a difference between "normal and crazy".

Twitter

ipse dixit

It was actually below at one point at many dealers.

Diablo Dude

In other news, January Retail Sales were announced this morning at +3.0%
1.8% was the expectation. The 3.0% increase was driven by (wait for it .... wait for it) CAR SALES!

Manifold

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-in...ar-and-volume/

WCGhost

Who knows what will happen, this is what ChatGPT responded with.

"It is difficult to predict with certainty whether the prices of the Porsche 992 911 GT3 will decline this year, as it depends on various factors such as market demand, supply chain disruptions, and economic conditions.

However, it's worth noting that new cars, particularly high-end sports cars like the Porsche 911 GT3, tend to have a relatively stable pricing, especially in the short term. Prices may fluctuate slightly due to changes in demand or supply, but significant drops in price are less likely to occur.

That being said, if the global economy experiences a downturn or if demand for the 992 911 GT3 decreases, it is possible that prices may decline. Additionally, as newer models of the Porsche 911 are introduced, the prices of previous models may gradually decrease over time."

Overall, predicting the exact direction of Porsche 992 911 GT3 prices is challenging, and it's important to consider a variety of factors before making any purchasing decisions.

WCGhost

Not sure if that really is a good thing when consumer debt and delinquencies in the same spending categories continues to increase and reach record highs (those numbers you provided are also not adjusted for inflation). Credit card and auto loan delinquencies lead the increases. The scary part is that federal student loans have been on deferral for 3 years for millions of borrowers, people are spending as if they will not need to pay those back. When it comes time to pay those loans back, I assume more people will be delinquent or default on their credit card and auto loan debt as they would prioritize the student loan payment first. None of this is really too relevant for GT3 pricing, but I do not see the increase in retail sales as a significant positive for the overall economic picture given the the other variables being impacted, such as household debt seeing its largest increase in 20 years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/cons...e-as-well.html

Diablo Dude

The household debt surge was driven primarily by mortgage balances, as well as credit cards.

The people that are most impacted are younger borrowers who hold federal student loans and have racked up credit card debt and are having trouble meeting auto-loans.
I would suggest that those people are not in the market for a GT3, let alone a Porsche.

In any event, the overall share of borrowers who are in delinquency remains below pre-pandemic levels.
My overall point is that the broken "clock" crowd that has frequented this thread for the last 6 - 8 months have been calllng for a RECESSION and an economic collapse
have continued to be wrong. Let me repeat that one more time. They have been flat-out WRONG. The U.S. economy has continued to be resilient and has surprised with impressive job growth.

US Household Debt Surges as Young Borrowers Struggle With Loans By Bloomberg (investing.com)

BigRed911

Powell is an idiot.

Ascend

OT but anyone knows how to get a birkin/kelly bag at msrp? My friend wants one. 🥲

Boltsfan

I think it's more likely than not that there's a recession. At this point in time, to say that someone who believes that a recession will occur has been flat-out wrong is like declaring the winner of the Super Bowl at halftime. Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong. And, the impressiveness of the job market is, in fact, THE problem. That impressiveness will cause the Fed to prolong the agony, possibly hiking more than perhaps the underlying data indicated a month ago. The idea of a soft landing is nice, but the odds are slim. The Fed is committed to killing inflation; from a personal perspective, Powell doesn't want his legacy to be the guy who caused inflation to run rampant. He already screwed up by not moving much sooner, saying that inflation was transitory, which was mostly wrong. Some companies that need to refinance their debt will not be able to do so or at best will have to pay a ridiculously high interest rate, cutting deeply into corporate profits. Consumers are already spending more on credit cards and saving less. That doesn't bode well for the economy. How bad of a recession? It won't be like the GFR, I'm fairly certain. Perhaps mild or maybe moderate. No one knows right now.

usctrojanGT3

The Fed will take rates higher than most people think, probably into the 6%s because the service industry inflation is very sticky mainly due to the strong job market which we saw in the higher CPI and PPI rates in Jan. If we get another month of hot readings the Fed will probably hike their rate 1/2% in the next Fed meeting. The thing that the Fed can't figure is a structural shortage of workers due to many workers dropping out of the job market since COVID and as well as baby boomers retiring. The Fed needs to kill high inflation, high inflation is a lot worse than a mild/moderate recession. These higher rates will kill off zombie companies that have been kept alive with cheap debt and that should help to soften up the labor market. One thing is for sure, the Fed will go up too high on rates and will cause a recession and then will need to back pedal and cut rates once deflation kicks in.

Scrappy1972

Nothing in the financial markets and economy is ‘for sure’.

usctrojanGT3

That is a given but history has a way of repeating itself so the chances of the Fed engineering a soft landing is slim to none.

AlexCeres

it’s not 2008. Despite tripling interest rates, the economy is still adding jobs. There isn’t any evidence that going from 5 to 6%, a mere 20% increase, will be some kind of catastrophe. Will there be a recession ? Meh, maybe. Maybe not. The underlying economic fundamentals are very strong and any weakness artificially engineered and easily reversed. rates will stay high because the economy and profits are strong, or rates will get cut sharply and money cheap again because they over corrected on inflation.

the labor participation rate is quite low, historically, so there isn’t a great story for a structural labor shortage. A lot of people appear to have opted out of ****ty jobs which aren’t paying what labor considers fair market value. Pay for low end service jobs had not really kept up with inflation until Covid. A slowing economy with rising interest rates will help re-evaluate labor pricing negotiations. If folks really wanted to reprice labor and resolve structural shortages, they’d endorse vastly more immigration. It’d resolve inflation and social security at the same time. But people don’t value the things they claim THAT much.

Diablo Dude

Bingo.

The current H-1B visa regulations have clearly stifled growth in Silicon Valley over the last 5 years.
And now that there have been tech layoffs of 100,000, those immigrants will have to find another job within 60 days or be deported.
One of the dumbest labor laws that I've ever seen.