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Dang, and this is in Texas where cost of living is dirt...
Originally Posted by Freddie Two Bs
I say ADMs aren't gonna come down much at all. Porsche trades 25% above its IPO price from two months ago. Ferrari is only down like 7% ytd, a great performance vs the index. LVMH is flat for the year, which this year is a phenomenal outcome.
Basically luxury goods totally continue to kill it with no signs of stress.
Mom and pop might hurt a bit and they'll decide not to borrow against the equity of their $400k house and trim expenses but they weren't gonna buy a GT3 anyway.
Also I'm gonna send my kids to Food Manager school instead of college.
It’s wild that you can make $125k as a food service manager. No degree, just hard working and put in the hours. If you were single, you could really stack up money there because you could eat breakfast, lunch, and dinner for free.
With the clowns in charge of this country everything could be double or half in the next two years.
I think half, and that makes cars plummet in price.
On the other hand supply is short on GT cars. I’ve done 4 European Deliveries this year and each time I was told during the factory tour that the production line runs at 50% of usual speed and stoppage due to parts missing. That pretty much tells us there is at least 50% reduction, but what they do produce are the cars with higher margins / the models they have all the parts for. But supply down for the foreseeable future.
We will see how many GT4RS and GT3RS buyers remain standing if we go 2008 type economy next year?
This time of course it could be completely different but in 2007 a GT3RS was $75K over sticker of $125K
By 2010 you got a new RS at sticker and by 2012 I bought a 997 4.0RS at sticker.
Could be so much fun buying stuff 2023-2027.
50% up or 50% down is pretty much the same for me in terms of buying power and I think in the RS income bracket it’s the same for many?
With the clowns in charge of this country everything could be double or half in the next two years.
I think half, and that makes cars plummet in price.
Nothing is going to be doubling in price the next year or two.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Jerome Powell, a Trump appointee) is currently trying to cut demand in an effort to bring the inflation down that they themselves created when they increased the money supply (M2) by an unprecedented 40% between 2020 and 2021. They were asleep at the wheel when inflation reared its ugly head and they ignored it in an attempt to recoup all of the job losses during Covid. Powell believed that the inflation that we were experiencing was simply transitory and would go back down as soon as supply-chain issues resolved themselves. In December of 2021, he admitted that inflation was no longer transitory. By then, the CPI was already cooking along at 6.8%
In March of 2022, the FED finally started raising interest rates in order to withdraw liquidity in the system. But they only raised rates 1/4 of a point. They've been playing catch up ever since, with three 75 basis point raises in a row and another 50 basis point raise in the Fed Funds rate coming this month. The upcoming expected raise will get the target rate range for Fed Funds to between 4.25 - 4.5%. Many market participants and economists believe that the rate of Fed Funds needs to get over 5% in order to start cooling off the economy.
Wages have been strong and rising and the unemployment rate has refused to budge from very low levels, currently 3.7%.
The FED cant increase the supply of labor. So the only tool that the FED has in its arsenal is to raise interest rates (and sell $100 Billion of bonds per month) to a point that increases the unemployment rate and cuts demand. This is basic Econ. 101
In fact, the spread between the 2 and 10 year treasury yield has inverted to depths not seen since 1981.
That inversion hit a whopping 85 basis points yesterday ( 2 year: 4.25% and 10 year: 3.40% )
Banks borrow short to lend long. It's not profitable to do so when the curve is inverted.
The bond market is clearly signaling Recession for sometime next year.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 12-08-2022 at 12:01 PM.
On another note, the biggest Porsche dealer in all of the San Francisco Bay Area (Carlsen in Redwood City) located in the backyard of Google, only has 1 GT3 allocation for 2023.
Supply/Demand.
Wrong seats, tranny and standard interior = flipper spec
I wonder though what will happen to all that inventory (140+ on cars.com) come next year and some have been on the market for 90+ days.
I don't recall even back in 991.1 days having this much inventory for sale in a single year.
You know the country is in a ****ty place when the whole economy teaters one person at the Fed.
It's always been like this.
Since 1913 when Congress created the Federal Reserve and gave it total independent power.
The Federal Reserve Chairman is the most powerful person in this country, perhaps the world.
He is literally accountable to no one.
It's terribly sad that so many people in the United States are uneducated and actually believe that the President sets interest rates, mortgage rates, and gas prices.
Never has this been shown to be more prevalent given posts that I've read on social media this year.
Welcome to Dumberica!
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 12-08-2022 at 12:16 PM.
Since 1913 when Congress created the Federal Reserve and gave it total independent power.
The Federal Reserve Chairman is the most powerful person in this country, perhaps the world.
He is literally accountable to no one.
It's terribly sad that so many people in the United States are uneducated and actually believe that the President sets interest rates, mortgage rates, and gas prices.
Never has this been shown to be more prevalent given posts that I've read on social media this year.
Welcome to Dumberica!
Agree, and it's quite obvious the Fed has gone pretty progressive in what their mandate should be in the past few years... in addition to dialing in monetary needs and inflation, the Fed is also focused on unemployment, ESG bullcrap, and ensuring equality of wages across gender and race.
Blockchain was supposed to be a nice alternative, but that too seems to be taking some heavy blows recently.
Agree, and it's quite obvious the Fed has gone pretty progressive in what their mandate should be in the past few years... in addition to dialing in monetary needs and inflation, the Fed is also focused on unemployment, ESG bullcrap, and ensuring equality of wages across gender and race.
Blockchain was supposed to be a nice alternative, but that too seems to be taking some heavy blows recently.
Seeking full employment has not been a recent (progressive) mandate.
In 1977, Congress amended the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 to include the following (refined) objective.
It's became known as the "dual-mandate"
1.) Price Stability
2.) Full Employment
But over the last 15 years, I would say that that "dual-mandate" has changed to this:
1.) Price Stability
2.) Full Employment
3.) Equity Market
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 12-08-2022 at 12:52 PM.
Here's hoping because I moved up the list when I bought the wife a Macan S (and took all their stupid add-ons and MF bump despite Tier 1 Credit -- although after nearly destroying the rims on my X5 Competition the wheels and tires was a must). Once we signed the paperwork on the Macan, my SA informed me that the expected wait time for an allocation dropped from 24 months to 12 months. ADM is currently $50K. I'd probably pay that but would love to see it cut in half. Also exploring the World (Cult?) of Ferrari as a friend has a great relationship with several dealers. If we can't get an allocation or the ADM stays put (or goes up), it's going to be hard to justify $250K-$275K for a P-car when a "comparable" (read: non-super/hypercar) Ferrari can be had for a smidge more.
I believe Manual Transmissions have been commanding a higher resale price than PDK. Not much more you can do with the interior on a winged car unless going with CXX
12-07-2022, 08:59 PM
