A place to discuss all things ADM
12-01-2022, 10:23 PM
#3331
This thread is the most entertaining thread on RL for me, I keep getting sucked into it....can't....stop...posting.
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welikethetrack (12-02-2022)
12-01-2022, 11:31 PM
#3332
I find it very interesting. Just not enough to post the same rhethoric every day. In legal speak, its called an attractive nuisance, Just funny truly, so no need for panty bunch.
12-01-2022, 11:32 PM
#3333
The following 2 users liked this post by Joe mac:
fijibubba (12-09-2022),
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12-01-2022, 11:32 PM
#3334
12-02-2022, 02:30 AM
#3335
12-02-2022, 11:15 AM
#3336
This thread is like the real housewives. Often cringe worthy, always entertaining.
12-02-2022, 12:45 PM
#3338
Rennlist Member
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
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12-02-2022, 01:08 PM
#3339
Just seen a lot more cattiness, name calling, and disrespect of other users in this thread than most others on this forum. If your opinion doesn't line up with someone else's in here, you'll usually be called a stupid, dumb, an idiot, etc. I like a healthy discussion and the predictions are fun, but some of the attitudes in here are a bit much for my liking.
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WCGhost (12-02-2022)
12-02-2022, 01:27 PM
#3340
Rennlist Member
Some of you are feeling the trunk of the elephant in your local market and deciding its a possum - dealers are individual businesses so you cant generalize your local experience and speak the truth to the deniers on Twitter, err I mean Rennlist 
So in some markets and with some GMs they may want to sell the odd M4 at a big discount. Cant say that is the market across the board. But some Halo cars do seem to sit and BMW for example doesnt care - take the X5M market - BMW needs that car to show it's a baller, but they always end up selling 10+% under sticker as their just arent enough people who want them but BMW needs to run the line and produce a MEQ. I've purchased 5 M-cars all at 5-8% below sticker (not during Covid). BMW sells 2.5+M cars globally each year. They build a TON of Mcars.
Check out what's happening more broadly in the US OEM/Dealer dynamic in the market to shed some light on what we might be seeing
-OEMs selling direct more now, or at least omni channel to have more impact on the consumer decisions. Experience centers are Apple Stores.
- Days inventory on dealer lots used to be 60+ at times, was as low as 6-10 post Covid as a sign of production shortages, distribution woes etc
- Days Inventory rising but OEMs plan to keep it tighter now around 30 days (ie not dump on dealers lots) at request of dealers who want to sell at MSRP vs trunk money/rebates and discounting all the time
- OEMs like this as they more and more want cars ordered to build to better match their supply chain and production lines to optimize the cost side
- With better marketing DTC (and all the influencers doing their job better than they could with dealers who generally suck) they drive higher prices per unit and higher options
- Higher new sales prices keeps used prices higher too across the board as supply is now tighter and discounts don't crush auction sales
This is the general market some of you are seeing, or not, expecting prices to drop to the pre-Covid dynamics. Things appear to have changed.
Halo cars like Porsche GT division, Honda Civic R, Corvette z06 etc have their own economics. Some divisions use them as loss leaders, Porsche no doubt makes money given MSRP + options of $20K+ on most 911s. Porsche keeps their supply low relative to demand to make their Halos a true market leader, not a loss leader like an X5M. Porsche sells 300K cars a year - and a majority are SUVs, so they drive higher prices and margins.
An entire industry exists to provide reasonable depreciation curve estimates for auto leasing to manage the risk in lending. All cars will follow it, albeit with different curves.
With the above industry backdrop, Porsche has expertly managed demand and supply on GT cars to artificially keep the GT cars off the normal curve, at least IMO until the new models drop in 7-year cycles, Then they drop a little but not to the curves BMWs experience for example. Witness 991.1 price levels, below MSRP but still above what a normal sports car would sell for. (My 2013 911 is still worth $75K+ or 61% of MSRP even though it is now 9 years old, BMWs hit that in 3-4 years )
So many people on this board know and love this, as it allows them to live like Billionaires speccing/buying 2 or 3 GT cars every release cycle (2-3 years) and selling em back at little loss to further fuel the demand. No one wants to talk about that here but Rennlist and other boards are actually a key part of the dynamic fed by influencers here and on Youtube to actually keep the ADM cycle going. And now the demise (or serious limiting due to CAFE) of the NA engines are ensuring even more fear of future scarcity vs limited demand. No one knows yet how this will play out.
Anyway, many of you might be prone to generalization based on the trunk of the elephant. Fills the day I'll admit and you can sound super right - for your slice of the world and the few deals you may have seen. The cycle isn't that hard to spot, but Covid has driven some structural changes we are starting to experience.
One fun (if superficial) read here https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4...november-2022/
So in some markets and with some GMs they may want to sell the odd M4 at a big discount. Cant say that is the market across the board. But some Halo cars do seem to sit and BMW for example doesnt care - take the X5M market - BMW needs that car to show it's a baller, but they always end up selling 10+% under sticker as their just arent enough people who want them but BMW needs to run the line and produce a MEQ. I've purchased 5 M-cars all at 5-8% below sticker (not during Covid). BMW sells 2.5+M cars globally each year. They build a TON of Mcars.
Check out what's happening more broadly in the US OEM/Dealer dynamic in the market to shed some light on what we might be seeing
-OEMs selling direct more now, or at least omni channel to have more impact on the consumer decisions. Experience centers are Apple Stores.
- Days inventory on dealer lots used to be 60+ at times, was as low as 6-10 post Covid as a sign of production shortages, distribution woes etc
- Days Inventory rising but OEMs plan to keep it tighter now around 30 days (ie not dump on dealers lots) at request of dealers who want to sell at MSRP vs trunk money/rebates and discounting all the time
- OEMs like this as they more and more want cars ordered to build to better match their supply chain and production lines to optimize the cost side
- With better marketing DTC (and all the influencers doing their job better than they could with dealers who generally suck) they drive higher prices per unit and higher options
- Higher new sales prices keeps used prices higher too across the board as supply is now tighter and discounts don't crush auction sales
This is the general market some of you are seeing, or not, expecting prices to drop to the pre-Covid dynamics. Things appear to have changed.
Halo cars like Porsche GT division, Honda Civic R, Corvette z06 etc have their own economics. Some divisions use them as loss leaders, Porsche no doubt makes money given MSRP + options of $20K+ on most 911s. Porsche keeps their supply low relative to demand to make their Halos a true market leader, not a loss leader like an X5M. Porsche sells 300K cars a year - and a majority are SUVs, so they drive higher prices and margins.
An entire industry exists to provide reasonable depreciation curve estimates for auto leasing to manage the risk in lending. All cars will follow it, albeit with different curves.
With the above industry backdrop, Porsche has expertly managed demand and supply on GT cars to artificially keep the GT cars off the normal curve, at least IMO until the new models drop in 7-year cycles, Then they drop a little but not to the curves BMWs experience for example. Witness 991.1 price levels, below MSRP but still above what a normal sports car would sell for. (My 2013 911 is still worth $75K+ or 61% of MSRP even though it is now 9 years old, BMWs hit that in 3-4 years )
So many people on this board know and love this, as it allows them to live like Billionaires speccing/buying 2 or 3 GT cars every release cycle (2-3 years) and selling em back at little loss to further fuel the demand. No one wants to talk about that here but Rennlist and other boards are actually a key part of the dynamic fed by influencers here and on Youtube to actually keep the ADM cycle going. And now the demise (or serious limiting due to CAFE) of the NA engines are ensuring even more fear of future scarcity vs limited demand. No one knows yet how this will play out.
Anyway, many of you might be prone to generalization based on the trunk of the elephant. Fills the day I'll admit and you can sound super right - for your slice of the world and the few deals you may have seen. The cycle isn't that hard to spot, but Covid has driven some structural changes we are starting to experience.
One fun (if superficial) read here https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4...november-2022/
Last edited by Chris C.; 12-02-2022 at 01:47 PM.
The following 2 users liked this post by Chris C.:
Diablo Dude (12-02-2022),
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12-02-2022, 01:29 PM
#3341
Rennlist Member
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Chris C. (12-02-2022)
12-02-2022, 01:33 PM
#3342
Rennlist Member
deleted
Last edited by Chris C.; 12-02-2022 at 01:50 PM.
12-02-2022, 01:49 PM
#3343
Rennlist Member
Some dealers do secure non-refundable deposits. I paid one. But in CA this is true - but IMO it causes them to not treat customers seriously as there is less trust in a deal happening,
12-02-2022, 02:06 PM
#3344
Just seen a lot more cattiness, name calling, and disrespect of other users in this thread than most others on this forum. If your opinion doesn't line up with someone else's in here, you'll usually be called a stupid, dumb, an idiot, etc. I like a healthy discussion and the predictions are fun, but some of the attitudes in here are a bit much for my liking.
The following 2 users liked this post by Ascend:
Therosser77 (12-02-2022),
WCGhost (12-02-2022)
12-02-2022, 02:25 PM
#3345
Rennlist Member
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
Posts: 13,286
Received 4,472 Likes
on
2,547 Posts
Just seen a lot more cattiness, name calling, and disrespect of other users in this thread than most others on this forum. If your opinion doesn't line up with someone else's in here, you'll usually be called a stupid, dumb, an idiot, etc. I like a healthy discussion and the predictions are fun, but some of the attitudes in here are a bit much for my liking.