John McM

I sold my Turbo 3.6 to a UK buyer. I think we agree that it was a good deal on both sides, however I was staggered at how quickly the costs mounted up for him. Add ~ 38% to the NZ price to get the UK on the road price and it needs to be a special car, which the Turbo 3.6 is, especially with the work done post landing. I don't think there will many if any better ones out there.

On the other hand, importing has been killed by the exchange rate. Anyone for a $118,000 Cayman R? No, I didn't think so given the NZ Market priced the last two at $85,000.

Macca

Its a bubble in UK. What you are experiencing is a "bull run". Its been driven from low yielding asset classes, cheap money and a sentimental buyer base whipped up by the auto media. The GBP is now strenthening, the economy is getting back on its feet. many will dissagree with me but I see this a non sustainable pricing situation. Being a serial ibvestor in the markets one of the first thing you are taught (suaually the hard way) is that for any asset classes things are cyclical and for every boom/bull run/rally there is a retracement often almost as significant sometimes even moreso than the engergy contained in the original rally. Its tehlaw of investing and as vintage sports cars have now simply become another assset class for the middle class/wealthy they too will follow a similar trend. The elemetry issue here is that when the sky is falling there arent any chicken licken enthusiasts with the money to prop up even the lower end of the high market expectations of the investors.

The worm is turning with the currencies. This was never a surpise. The next wave of vintage car sales in NZ will be with the tailwinds of a weak NZD, more than a residual appreciation in the market they are sold to I expect. My prediction is that for 18 montsh we will see folks selling into UK for gains (only the scarcer stuff where the forumula works - essentially take the UK price convert it to NZD and multiply it by 60% if you want a realistic idea - works on anything around 70K GBP or over). E.g. 996 GT3 = 75K GBP market val ein UK them divide by 0.425 to NZD and multiply by .6 gives you approx 105,000 NZD in your hand in NZ. For buyer in UK car will cost 75K x 0.6 = 45K GBP (into your hand) then he will pay 5K GBP to export the car, shipped and insured with compliance the other end, so now 50K GBP then 20% uk VAT on cost of vehicle and transport etc so now the vehicle owes the UK owner approximately 60K GBP - add on 2K for PPI NZ end, paying someone to run around and organise it and any sundries along the way (usually battery will fail in transit and often oil leaks occur due to extreme heat/humidity in containers for older cars - Thats my experience in the 4-5 x Porsche I have imported).

Now our UK buyer has a Non UK, KMPH 996 GT3 first registered in the antipodes with NZ service history, 65,000km and apparently no accident history and it owes him 62K GBP which is a 13K GBP discount over the upper end of teh trade asking price at the time he struck teh deal and 8K GBP more than a similar condition/mileage UK car bought privately in UK.

He NEEDS this 8-13K GBP discount (15-20%) over UK mareket ASKING price to justify the risks, the fact teh car will never be UK C16 new with Maltons or main agent service history (for example) and that at any tie his money or his car were at risk dealing with unknown folks, shipping and distance.

So you can see your extreme market 75K GBP minter UK GT3 at well know UK dealer is only going to Net a NZ seller around 105K NZD which frankly is within the price band (90-110k) I would give for a NZ car depending on condition and if it was originally clubsport spec from factory etc. Why take teh trouble?

The issue is because people are not understanding the economic translation.

Once the NZD drops below 0.40 we will see the above example become economically viable. Also as Ive been saying before NZ economy about to come in for a HARD LANDING. Price of goods imported will start ratching up fast now (cureency has devalued 15-18% this year alone but flow through effect yet felt at retail store front due to distributoir invetories). Farming is up the wazzoo and its looking like a 4+ year cycle - around 50% of all farmers will be underwater now on their debt. Good time for teh chinese investors to dwoop in and buy it all up. Reminds me of teh Bowie song "Man who sold the world". Change out World for NZ. Property market in Auckland is going same way. Business confidence very low right now. Economic growth is nil, currency will keep depreciating and NZ businesses under perform with consumer living costs increasing and inflation will likely over correct. Property market in Auckland is the only real short term saviour (but when it retracts will do so on teh same fibonaci curve basis of ourther asset classes after a major bull run I suspect) and Christchurch is the only medium term prospect but must be seen to be in its honemoon phase.

If you are lloking to hawk your old Porsche for a profit Id wait till next year to pick up the currency benefit but be relaistic with your expectations as per calculation above. Youhave to leave plenty in it for the next guy (or worse still a dealer in between) because its viewed as a "unknown quantity" (just like used imports are in NZ to some degree) and someone has to pony up the folding and take the front end risks (reasonable) in the first place and wants a reward!

Other than that like houses for Aucklanders far to much time IMO is spent taking about the value of assets on here rather than teh enjoyment of driving which means for most of us these cars are signifiacnt assets for us unlike other parts of teh world where they are toys!

All IMO of course :-)

Macca

John. Your UK buyer is in some ways demonstrative of the UK market (but not entirely as he is an enthusiast of sorts, a great guy, albiet a well heeled one who wants the best in his garage). He has to this day never driven a 964 or any generation let alone a turbo, still hasnt driven yours and from memory 5 years ago had never had a 911 in his garage.

So he bought a 3.6T landed all in for at the time 25K GBP less than similar UK market price. Has since probably spent 35K+ GBP on it. For agruements sake lets say it owes him 150K GBP in a few months when its completed. Assume the bull market retraces for these cars like it has done previously. How many true enthousiasts are prepared to pay 150+K GBP in a downward market trend for an old turbo (remember a new 991 GT3RS is 135K GBP + options and a new Cayman GT4 is 65K GBP plus optipons inthe UK)?

When I was young I read about the booming car market (would have been 1990ish). A japanese fellow set a record for a 2.7RS 1973 at 670K USD (USD was very strong back then). E type Jags were selling 60K GBP (3:1 exchange) and even in NZ the top E types were asking speculatively 120K NZD (some were exported to UK and Japan). This was teh second bubble after the 1985-1989 bubble when new cars of limited number like F40 & 959 and even stock 930 were selling the day they left the showroom for 30-80% over list.

By 1992 you wouldcbe a fool to pay over 180-200K USD for a 2.7RS and many paid well under. E types hit bottom in the 30-40K NZD range for a series 1 of reasonable provenenace.

There is no saying when this cycle will end or if it will end the same way, slowly, quickly, big drop, gradual drop.

But the rule of thumb that is nver broken when something like vintage cars moves out of its histporic classication to an "investment" asset classification is that what goes up always comes down. It doenst matter if its commoditie sor Appple shares over teh course of their lifetime they may grow in value but there will be corrections short/medium term.

I have no doubt in 2035 a 2.7RS may be worth 3 million USD. I also have no doubt that between now and then they will be worth half what they are today at least a couple of times.

It will be intersting to see where this all goes over the next few years. Im prepared (unlike many) to make a prediction here. The market will stay strong a while longer, at least into 2016, but by 2017 I expect we will see some changes in market dynamics. Once we see the end to this period of deflation , cheap money and stagnent global growth I expect we will see a period of rampant inflation, more expensive debt and cyclic commodity market performance which will have a trickle down effect to various asset classes. Art and Vintage sports cars are fickle classes, they rise impressively and fall impressively. It will be interesting for time to tell...

nzskater

Got my car back today. Damn it's fun to drive. Tempted to take a day off work just to go thrash it around (but can't, got to fund the habit somehow ). Really looking forward to Saturday, regardless of weather.

A relevant note - for those talking about theoretical lap times (as I know they're all best guesses), it would be worth reviewing your insurance policy on timing...

Macca

Great news Jake.

Prestigo will not pay out if a timing device is present in the car (within view of the driver) and displaying the current lap time/performance.

We all switch the screen to read live GPS speed or something similar (there are a few choices) whilst curcilating the track. Most of us do not review the actual lap times until after the event or at teh very least when we are not on teh track per se.

If you run a cam in your car as many of us do there is not getting away with this particularly if your camera is mounted to take in a view of the driver and the dash etc

Macca

I see the NZD is breaking some records today.

John McM

The positive here is that the weather forecast can't get any worse for Saturday. I proactively told Doug to take whichever car he felt comfortable in and the RS60 won. I may yet take the Cayenne as Paul declined to accept BB's presence on track.

I expect the Club will be very proactive on the day and keep it safe so take it easy and in the spirit meant if the day is called short. If you see a drifting Cayenne behind you, get out of the way. At 2.5 tons you and your car will come off worse if the beast gives you a tickle up.

Macca

John. You went from almighty C4 to BB (fail) to Cayenne because it's raining? All of this after lobbying an air cooled exclusive group and now you are bailing? Nice you let Doug off the hook :-)

In all seriousness if anyone is uncomfortable with the forecast and driving in the train on the track - don't drive. I mean that in the nicest way. After Taupo last year and April Playday the day before RSG this year (Porsche carnage both days) I personally would be considering closely my participation in either of my cars or at least choosing which sessions I drove and which I sat out on. for those relatively new to the sport don't let peer pressure or bravado make a poor decision for you - use your head on the day...

John McM

We're not talking rain, we're talking deluge. Paul will make sure that participants understand what aquaplaning is as people just didn't seem to get it in April. I'm tempted to take Herman to show what 25 year old Porsche technology is capable of but the Cayenne stereo on loud with the seat warmer on has a certain appeal.

O2GO

You never fail to amuse me John. I've taken my Cayenne S to Puke racetrack and I tell you they sure do perform.

I'm completely undecided between 964 and RS60. In any respect I will be on road tyres and trying to sit it out if it's too wet. I think I'd prefer the 964 but the RS60 has smarts which may save me if I **** it up and I need to try her on a track some time before the SITT. BB is fantastic in the wet based on my experience with her on NITT. We need some PORSCHE banners to disguise her under LOL.

John McM

Saturday 9am and Noon

Spokes

Upside...If the SW/E pushes under that Northerly moisture we are in for a dump of snow down south

Pel

Perhaps Doug & yourself keep the rivalry on level playing field and take Cayennes!

nzskater

I second that. Cayenne sprints in the wet!

Macca

Bloody good idea I say!!