CGT Prices
05-27-2015, 08:27 AM
#1336
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Collectors vs Speculators
Gents,
just some observations re the recent discussion and also market Prices that I see here in Germany, where low-mileage CGTs now have asking Prices of above EURO 1million
1) Are there more people that have that kind of Money to invest (Chinese?)
2) Are the same People that already have one now buying a second?
3) Who is buying at these Prices? Speculators or Enthusiasts that really want to Keep the car?
Just asking myself because I saw a similar situation about a decade ago in a totally different market of collectibles (Calling Cards for Phone Booths) where the asking prices where literally rising weekly and everybody was just waiting for the next dealer to send out a new pricelist with even higher prices. Fuelled by speculators that only got into the game for the Money kept this alive for about 2 years before it literally imploded within weeks when too many People wanted to cash in at the same time.
Obviously, this kind of behaviour happens in lots of markets (also the stock market sometimes ;-) ... just saying that if I look at the prices for CGTS in specific and for the rarer Porsches in general, how quickly they have moved up over the last 12 months and by the number of People who are greedily asking about the latest and greatest value of whatever asset... I get cautious
enjoy your CGTs !!
just some observations re the recent discussion and also market Prices that I see here in Germany, where low-mileage CGTs now have asking Prices of above EURO 1million
1) Are there more people that have that kind of Money to invest (Chinese?)
2) Are the same People that already have one now buying a second?
3) Who is buying at these Prices? Speculators or Enthusiasts that really want to Keep the car?
Just asking myself because I saw a similar situation about a decade ago in a totally different market of collectibles (Calling Cards for Phone Booths) where the asking prices where literally rising weekly and everybody was just waiting for the next dealer to send out a new pricelist with even higher prices. Fuelled by speculators that only got into the game for the Money kept this alive for about 2 years before it literally imploded within weeks when too many People wanted to cash in at the same time.
Obviously, this kind of behaviour happens in lots of markets (also the stock market sometimes ;-) ... just saying that if I look at the prices for CGTS in specific and for the rarer Porsches in general, how quickly they have moved up over the last 12 months and by the number of People who are greedily asking about the latest and greatest value of whatever asset... I get cautious
enjoy your CGTs !!
05-27-2015, 09:33 AM
#1337
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Gents,
just some observations re the recent discussion and also market Prices that I see here in Germany, where low-mileage CGTs now have asking Prices of above EURO 1million
1) Are there more people that have that kind of Money to invest (Chinese?)
2) Are the same People that already have one now buying a second?
3) Who is buying at these Prices? Speculators or Enthusiasts that really want to Keep the car?
Just asking myself because I saw a similar situation about a decade ago in a totally different market of collectibles (Calling Cards for Phone Booths) where the asking prices where literally rising weekly and everybody was just waiting for the next dealer to send out a new pricelist with even higher prices. Fuelled by speculators that only got into the game for the Money kept this alive for about 2 years before it literally imploded within weeks when too many People wanted to cash in at the same time.
Obviously, this kind of behaviour happens in lots of markets (also the stock market sometimes ;-) ... just saying that if I look at the prices for CGTS in specific and for the rarer Porsches in general, how quickly they have moved up over the last 12 months and by the number of People who are greedily asking about the latest and greatest value of whatever asset... I get cautious
enjoy your CGTs !!
just some observations re the recent discussion and also market Prices that I see here in Germany, where low-mileage CGTs now have asking Prices of above EURO 1million
1) Are there more people that have that kind of Money to invest (Chinese?)
2) Are the same People that already have one now buying a second?
3) Who is buying at these Prices? Speculators or Enthusiasts that really want to Keep the car?
Just asking myself because I saw a similar situation about a decade ago in a totally different market of collectibles (Calling Cards for Phone Booths) where the asking prices where literally rising weekly and everybody was just waiting for the next dealer to send out a new pricelist with even higher prices. Fuelled by speculators that only got into the game for the Money kept this alive for about 2 years before it literally imploded within weeks when too many People wanted to cash in at the same time.
Obviously, this kind of behaviour happens in lots of markets (also the stock market sometimes ;-) ... just saying that if I look at the prices for CGTS in specific and for the rarer Porsches in general, how quickly they have moved up over the last 12 months and by the number of People who are greedily asking about the latest and greatest value of whatever asset... I get cautious
enjoy your CGTs !!
I guess time will tell.
05-27-2015, 09:36 AM
#1338
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In my view, as long as Central Banks keep pursuing "Zero Interest-Rate Policy", truly rare collectables will continue to rise irrespective of (or maybe due to) flat business conditions. More and more cash bypasses business loan placement and ends up in paper investments. As paper investments reach precarious P/E ratios, collectables actually look like a safer place to soak up cash.
I guess time will tell.
I guess time will tell.
05-27-2015, 11:37 AM
#1339
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In my view, as long as Central Banks keep pursuing "Zero Interest-Rate Policy", truly rare collectables will continue to rise irrespective of (or maybe due to) flat business conditions. More and more cash bypasses business loan placement and ends up in paper investments. As paper investments reach precarious P/E ratios, collectables actually look like a safer place to soak up cash.
I guess time will tell.
I guess time will tell.
so, lets see how long it takes for interest rates rise significantly again :-) if we look at Japan, it may take a while ;-)
05-27-2015, 12:43 PM
#1340
Your dollars are worth less and it is actually accelerating.
CGT's are just now being considered for what they are. When those two things combine, it is not surprising to me at least, on these price moves in hard assets.
I do think the 911 and its zillion variants has run too far too fast. When I see 1994 speedsters advertised for 200K I think bubble. When I see RS America's asking for 200K I see bubble.
When I see a CGT for 7-800K I feel someone can own and drive that for 15 years and make out very well in the end.
Companies crash and cars crash. I feel like I have better odds investing in multiple areas not just paper. You cant take out an insurance policy for that stock you bought, if it blows up then there is no hope for recovery in most cases. But I have them for my cars should something unfortunate happen....... I think people have become much more open to these hard assets as a true "store" of value regardless of true appreciation over the long term. Houses used to be considered a hard asset to invest in long term but I feel that game no longer appeals to the super rich. A house here, one there. But what kind of drag does that create to a persons cash flow? If I had the money, I would have $20 million in cars before I had $20 million in houses spread across the world, paying yearly taxes ect. That makes zero sense to me.
But buying a cool car, learning about it, investing personal time to connect with the car is an interesting proposition.
CGT's are just now being considered for what they are. When those two things combine, it is not surprising to me at least, on these price moves in hard assets.
I do think the 911 and its zillion variants has run too far too fast. When I see 1994 speedsters advertised for 200K I think bubble. When I see RS America's asking for 200K I see bubble.
When I see a CGT for 7-800K I feel someone can own and drive that for 15 years and make out very well in the end.
Companies crash and cars crash. I feel like I have better odds investing in multiple areas not just paper. You cant take out an insurance policy for that stock you bought, if it blows up then there is no hope for recovery in most cases. But I have them for my cars should something unfortunate happen....... I think people have become much more open to these hard assets as a true "store" of value regardless of true appreciation over the long term. Houses used to be considered a hard asset to invest in long term but I feel that game no longer appeals to the super rich. A house here, one there. But what kind of drag does that create to a persons cash flow? If I had the money, I would have $20 million in cars before I had $20 million in houses spread across the world, paying yearly taxes ect. That makes zero sense to me.
But buying a cool car, learning about it, investing personal time to connect with the car is an interesting proposition.
05-27-2015, 02:53 PM
#1341
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Your dollars are worth less and it is actually accelerating.
CGT's are just now being considered for what they are. When those two things combine, it is not surprising to me at least, on these price moves in hard assets.
I do think the 911 and its zillion variants has run too far too fast. When I see 1994 speedsters advertised for 200K I think bubble. When I see RS America's asking for 200K I see bubble.
When I see a CGT for 7-800K I feel someone can own and drive that for 15 years and make out very well in the end.
Companies crash and cars crash. I feel like I have better odds investing in multiple areas not just paper. You cant take out an insurance policy for that stock you bought, if it blows up then there is no hope for recovery in most cases. But I have them for my cars should something unfortunate happen....... I think people have become much more open to these hard assets as a true "store" of value regardless of true appreciation over the long term. Houses used to be considered a hard asset to invest in long term but I feel that game no longer appeals to the super rich. A house here, one there. But what kind of drag does that create to a persons cash flow? If I had the money, I would have $20 million in cars before I had $20 million in houses spread across the world, paying yearly taxes ect. That makes zero sense to me.
But buying a cool car, learning about it, investing personal time to connect with the car is an interesting proposition.
CGT's are just now being considered for what they are. When those two things combine, it is not surprising to me at least, on these price moves in hard assets.
I do think the 911 and its zillion variants has run too far too fast. When I see 1994 speedsters advertised for 200K I think bubble. When I see RS America's asking for 200K I see bubble.
When I see a CGT for 7-800K I feel someone can own and drive that for 15 years and make out very well in the end.
Companies crash and cars crash. I feel like I have better odds investing in multiple areas not just paper. You cant take out an insurance policy for that stock you bought, if it blows up then there is no hope for recovery in most cases. But I have them for my cars should something unfortunate happen....... I think people have become much more open to these hard assets as a true "store" of value regardless of true appreciation over the long term. Houses used to be considered a hard asset to invest in long term but I feel that game no longer appeals to the super rich. A house here, one there. But what kind of drag does that create to a persons cash flow? If I had the money, I would have $20 million in cars before I had $20 million in houses spread across the world, paying yearly taxes ect. That makes zero sense to me.
But buying a cool car, learning about it, investing personal time to connect with the car is an interesting proposition.
Been down the road of multiple homes and all it did was create stress.
Stress that I wasn't using them enough
Stress from maintenance and total carrying costs
Stress from owning and feeling obligated to go there to justify ownership
Multiple personal homes are not investments imo, income producing rental properties different story.....
05-27-2015, 03:39 PM
#1342
Yup, that's my thinking.
Been down the road of multiple homes and all it did was create stress.
Stress that I wasn't using them enough
Stress from maintenance and total carrying costs
Stress from owning and feeling obligated to go there to justify ownership
Multiple personal homes are not investments imo, income producing rental properties different story.....
Been down the road of multiple homes and all it did was create stress.
Stress that I wasn't using them enough
Stress from maintenance and total carrying costs
Stress from owning and feeling obligated to go there to justify ownership
Multiple personal homes are not investments imo, income producing rental properties different story.....
I would rather own a bunch of reits that can raise rents (dividends) as a liquid hard asset class in RE. Trade in and out as NAV diverges from the stock value. This way you get management to do the leg work while you collect the rents. No closing costs, lawyers, tenants, headaches ect ect. Passive investment into RE is where I am at.
The cars are for enjoyment, with some inflation protection, in a real store of value that wont drag your cash flows down. There are usually sales comps that help put a quick value on a car if a sale is needed so they tend to be more liquid than RE is.
I think a lot of rich people find it hard to keep sane when paper wealth is going all over the place erratically, and being able to go into the garage and see the value is something that is quite appealing to many these days. There is also a pride of ownership that has value in itself. Having said that, my feeling is prices stabilize for a long time from here even after interest rates rise. Since these assets are generally cash buys, I dont see a mass exodus of owners flooding the market with cars.
I can remember being offered a LTW 73RS, white with blue graphics for $125,000 in the 90's. The broker we worked with thought that was the dumbest buy of all time and I passed........ Shoulda woulda coulda........
IDK thats all I have to contribute. Oh and that the CGT is the best vehicle ever created by man........
Peter, please inform us on your take btwn the CGT and F40 when possible...... Congrats!
05-27-2015, 10:18 PM
#1343
IMHO, the CGT market just got ahead of itself over the last 6-9 months...My prediction is that the car will level off for some time while buyers and sellers get used to the new high water mark. I feel that sellers are currently asking prices that is ahead of the market and once the market settle a little bit, these higher asking prices may move down closer to the real market.
I have a couple of friends with CGT's and two of them are starting to talk about selling theirs...saw one last week and he said he is holding out to see if the market continues to rise before he brings it to market - we may see more cars come to market, especially after the summer.
My advice to them - Life is too short...enjoy the car!
I have a couple of friends with CGT's and two of them are starting to talk about selling theirs...saw one last week and he said he is holding out to see if the market continues to rise before he brings it to market - we may see more cars come to market, especially after the summer.
My advice to them - Life is too short...enjoy the car!
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Porsche-Carr...m=111681057841
05-27-2015, 10:27 PM
#1344
Rennlist Member
people are getting way ahead of themselves here talking about 1million euros ask ? huh ? I have been offered 3 cars from brokers over past 5 week all with under 1500 miles all looking for 700k... here is another one on ebay... if there are 4-5 not being sold at 700k yet (not talking 4 years from now) how exactly are people talking about 1 million euros?
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Porsche-Carr...m=111681057841
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Porsche-Carr...m=111681057841
05-27-2015, 10:36 PM
#1345
my bad this says starting bid of 700k thought it said by it now..
but as I said been offered several past 5-6 weeks looking for 700k all super low mile cars... where does this talk of 1million Euros come from ? seems pretty far fetched....
but as I said been offered several past 5-6 weeks looking for 700k all super low mile cars... where does this talk of 1million Euros come from ? seems pretty far fetched....
05-27-2015, 10:42 PM
#1346
Rennlist Member
1 million EUR / $1.1 million USD? Unlikely. Maybe if things continued trending in the same direction for a few years.
The Fayence Yellow with 250 miles listed at $950k has been sitting ever since it was originally listed at $896k earlier in March (yes, they raised the list price).
05-27-2015, 11:24 PM
#1347
Drifting
CGT's as other cars have seen a dip / slow down - wouldn't read into it.
1M is a BIG number - OTH a line of US buyers would form quickly for a 1M white CGT perhaps other PTS.
We need someone to come up with an OWNERS registry at least in the US. Be interesting to see how many cars are left - think everyone would be surprised.
1M is a BIG number - OTH a line of US buyers would form quickly for a 1M white CGT perhaps other PTS.
We need someone to come up with an OWNERS registry at least in the US. Be interesting to see how many cars are left - think everyone would be surprised.
05-28-2015, 12:02 AM
#1348
CGT's as other cars have seen a dip / slow down - wouldn't read into it.
1M is a BIG number - OTH a line of US buyers would form quickly for a 1M white CGT perhaps other PTS.
We need someone to come up with an OWNERS registry at least in the US. Be interesting to see how many cars are left - think everyone would be surprised.
1M is a BIG number - OTH a line of US buyers would form quickly for a 1M white CGT perhaps other PTS.
We need someone to come up with an OWNERS registry at least in the US. Be interesting to see how many cars are left - think everyone would be surprised.
I don't think there has been a dip or slowdown there just never was a real market at 800k... a market at 800k plus would imply many people were able to buy and sell at those prices.... just stories of 1 or 2 or 3 cars changing hands there does not make a market... a low mile car going from one dealer at 600k ask, to another at 700k ask, then going to antler dealer at 800k ask also does not make a market.. this is just games... yes the cars are strong and being appreciated but gimme a break half the people on these boards pumping cars like a CGT saying they are 800, 900, 1million Euros are brokers/dealers just trying to create hype so they can sell the cars they have on the market... the real CGT market is 500-700k depending on the details and miles etc... 1 million euros ? not a shot thats the market today or ever has been...
this same nonsense has been going on with may p cars past 12 months... smoke and mirrors...
05-28-2015, 12:32 AM
#1349
Drifting
I don't think there has been a dip or slowdown there just never was a real market at 800k... a market at 800k plus would imply many people were able to buy and sell at those prices.... just stories of 1 or 2 or 3 cars changing hands there does not make a market... a low mile car going from one dealer at 600k ask, to another at 700k ask, then going to antler dealer at 800k ask also does not make a market.. this is just games... yes the cars are strong and being appreciated but gimme a break half the people on these boards pumping cars like a CGT saying they are 800, 900, 1million Euros are brokers/dealers just trying to create hype so they can sell the cars they have on the market... the real CGT market is 500-700k depending on the details and miles etc... 1 million euros ? not a shot thats the market today or ever has been...
this same nonsense has been going on with may p cars past 12 months... smoke and mirrors...
this same nonsense has been going on with may p cars past 12 months... smoke and mirrors...
Watch the video of the 458 replacement around Fiarano - suggest turning the sound off.
Then there are those 918 guys who sold to grab a 918 the market absorbed those units and prices raised - the same thing will happen with the 599GTO vs the F12's newest version.
Believe drivers / collectors will go back to the end of an era cars and pay much more than current prices.
Pimping pumping bragging up the CGT - it's none of those if it's true
05-28-2015, 12:32 AM
#1350
Burning Brakes
