Manifold

Stocks can go a good bit lower, unemployment can go up a lot, deflation can occur in some areas, sentiment has a lot of room to drop. We’ve yet to get close to ‘blood in the streets’ in the unwinding of the pandemic response. It’s as though people think really bad days can’t come again, because the Fed won’t let them, but I think there’s no way to avoid paying the price for the lost production during the pandemic.

Manifold

Wow, I’m honestly surprised to see that, rather than the GT3 being a rare and special 911 variant, it’s actually one of the most popular and common ones. Even the RS is one of the more common ones. GTS, Turbo, and Turbo S are much more rare. It’s good to see that Porsche apparently tried to increase production of the GT3 and RS to meet the demand, probably reducing production capacity for the other variants.

DodoBrd

sounds like what everyone was saying 6 months ago... but here we are, MSRP still out of reach for most

Boltsfan

Do you think what the Fed is doing with its actions is the equivalent of maneuvering a destroyer or an aircraft carrier? It takes time for these things to play out. There's the "R" word - we are waiting to see whether there will be a recession. In the immediate term, we're looking at corporate earnings, specifically, what their projections are (not necessarily historical earnings). The big banks have already come out, and it's been a bit mixed. JPMorgan said they think a mild recession is base case, while BofA seemed a little more bullish, though acknowledging that a recession could happen. Consumers are starting to use more debt than they had been before.

To address your specific question, there needs to be seller capitulation in order for pricing to drop. In part, it's how long they can hold out before they need to sell, e.g., they need to generate cashflow.

There's plenty more that could possibly happen.

Manifold

Many are off on the timing, but I think, more likely than not, that’s the direction we’re headed.

However, it could be argued that we’ve already largely paid the piper via the high 2021/2022 inflation which now appears to be locked into prices in many areas. Those of us sitting on a lot of cash have lost a lot of purchasing power with that cash. And I don’t think that wages have generally gone up as quickly as inflation, so loss of purchasing power there also.

rodsky

Not what I recalled. You (an arbitrary person) couldn't just walk into a dealership and order a 991.2 at MSRP a year after production started. You could get one at roughly $20K over by the end of the run - a new one that was on the floor already. Once Covid hit - there was brief period when prices dropped and then they started to shoot up (second hand market that is)..

Ascend

Microsoft just fired 10000 ppl. Wages going down too.

DodoBrd

nope, under 1k mile cars were trading below MSRP. My buddy picked up a CPO with 250 miles in early 2019 a few K below MSRP

DodoBrd

my point is… look at everything that HAS happened and you still can’t get a proper spec or build able allocation for less than $50-$60k

Boltsfan

Okay, but you asked what else needs to happen for pricing to go down more. I responded to that specific question with my thoughts.

darylbowden

I think some form of recession is inevitable. We are already seeing a severely weakening advertising market, which means that companies who advertise don't believe they can sell enough product to offset the advertising costs at existing CPMs. That ties directly to consumer confidence which has a huge impact on financial markets - if everyone believes we are heading into a recession, we are basically triggering that reality.

I think the thing that is interesting here is that we area only 15 years removed from a massive black swan event in the financial markets, so our recent memory of a recession was of a recession worse than most. So the question almost becomes are we heading into a regular recession OR has Covid and the related spending, debt, etc that came from trying to get ourselves out of the Covid markets created another black swan event so close to the last one? I don't think anyone can know that ahead of time, but what we do know is that there is no well-run company on earth which isn't preparing for it. Nobody wants to be the one who is out there spending recklessly when most everyone else is focused on austerity so that they can maintain their cash reserves in the face of the cost of borrowing currently.

darylbowden

Sure but rare doesn't mean better right? I think most would argue that the C2S is probably the best bang for the buck of almost any generation of 911 since they've been offered (993, 997-current), I just think in a world where money has been so cheap, people were more able to get their "dream car" as opposed to a "regular" C2S. It will be interesting to see if that stays the case.

It reminds me of the 997.2 era when they offered the GTS/GT3/RS and how few were bought compared to the base and S models (which were still lower for obvious reasons) because people were more tightly managing their money in an uncertain world. My gut says we will likely get back there, but with all of these things, we are all just looking at signals available to us and making the best predictions we can based upon them, but we can't really know until it happens (or not).

DodoBrd

sorry you didn’t pick up on the rhetoric

Ascend

I think the most important question is. When will this end? Or will it ever end?

Barring true collectibles, paying above MSRP for non limited car currently in production is abnormal and shouldnt last long or do you guys think that it will be normal to pay 60-70k on top of msrp for gt3 for the next decades to come?

ipse dixit

If one keeps saying it, at some point it's going to be true.

Yes, I think we can all agree that prices will eventually stabliize and reach parity with MSRP, but the question is when.

When this thread was started nearly 2 years ago, people were saying MSRP within 6 months. We are now way past 6 months and here we are still talking about getting to MSRP, and not at MSRP.

It's like lottery numbers. Keep playing and I suppose at some point, you're going to win.