A place to discuss all things ADM
01-13-2023, 04:03 PM
#4261
Administrator - "Tyson"
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01-13-2023, 04:09 PM
#4262
But thanks for pointing out the obvious.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 01-13-2023 at 04:31 PM.
01-13-2023, 04:23 PM
#4263
01-13-2023, 05:35 PM
#4264
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: West Los Angeles & Truckee, CA
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There is a 991 GT3/RS for sale thread - which is civil and will serve your 991 GT interest. And there is a 992 TTS ADM pricing / discussion thread too. I would say this thread is for those trying to understand the market pertaining to 992 GT cars.
The following users liked this post:
Manifold (01-13-2023)
01-13-2023, 06:11 PM
#4265
Rennlist Member
Why do I return to this thread?
Of course, price matters to me and affects the affordability of the car. However, what brings me back to the thread, despite the noise, is that I think the accessibility of these cars matters for what the car is, what it becomes, how it is used, and what community it brings to the brand.
I was a Porsche owner back when the first GT3 was released in Europe and I've been reading the forums about these cars since the release of the 996.2 GT3. These cars being relatively accessible for the first few generations got a lot of people into community and out on track. These people were stripping out the interiors of brand new cars in 2004, just for DE. Is that stupid? yes! Is that fun? hell yes! Everyone assumed the price of the car wouldn't hold, so they instead enjoyed the car. It was a better vibe on rennlist 18 years ago. Not saying it's not fun now, some of that spirit is still here, but it's harder to find.
When the market gets crazy, there are two options.
1. Have a real waitlist that fills up years ahead or have a lottery for the cars. This could be done at a national level instead of dealing with individual dealers. Make it difficult to resell in less than a year. Make it illegal to charge ADM (it is illegal in many countries, this isn't new). While not all enthusiasts will get a car, this will eliminate the flippers to a large degree and create a transparent process that is a little more fair and will keep the brand aspirational instead of exclusive creating more loyal customers for Porsche in good times and bad (especially young ones who might not have patience for dealer games).
2. Allow dealers and flippers to hoard cars and sell them off to effectively the highest bidder. Flippers will sell to flippers, or at least buyers whose calculation of ownership includes getting their money out. Those buyers are motivated to drive less and risk less on their investment. Younger buyers who aren't super-rich and buyers that are more upper-middle class than upper class will be excluded and start looking elsewhere. There will still be GT3s at track days (esp. bay area!) but fewer and the vibe will be a little different.
With the current supply and demand, I don't think we can have as nice a community and cars in the hands of as many enthusiast track day drivers without taking some of the steps in option 1. However, option 1 is incompatible with the ideas of "a dealer and a buyer can do whatever they want, it's America!" Option 1 is better for the brand in the long term because Porsche would be more able to capture market trends when they want (raising prices) or expand their customer base (leave prices low and let people with a slightly wider range of incomes have a chance at buying). And again, option 1 is certainly better for the community and customer experience.
What people don't realize is that option 2 isn't really what people call a "free market" in the strictest sense. In a free market there has to be an agent (seller) who can price the car lower and get more supply to outcompete the competition. With a limited number of cars, the few dealers who sell at MSRP aren't getting hundreds of cars more than the ones who don't, so we are missing a mechanism on the supply side for prices to lower. Each dealer or flipper has only a few cars, so when one decides to sell for a little lower, there isn't much pressure on the other sellers. (Prices can come down, but they take longer) Although they aren't an organized cartel (think diamonds and oil), with few enough cars and similar actions from all sellers (hold and gorge), we effectively have a cartel. This isn't free market capitalism in the version that creates all the things we love about capitalism (efficiencies and innovation!). This is crappy cartel capitalism where a few agents leech on the economy. The version of capitalism that's great is the one that keeps Porsches competing with McLarens, Corvettes, BMWs, Mercs, etc. to create the best products. And for Porsche to be the most competitive in the game at that level, in the long run, they need to rein in their dealers.
Of course, price matters to me and affects the affordability of the car. However, what brings me back to the thread, despite the noise, is that I think the accessibility of these cars matters for what the car is, what it becomes, how it is used, and what community it brings to the brand.
I was a Porsche owner back when the first GT3 was released in Europe and I've been reading the forums about these cars since the release of the 996.2 GT3. These cars being relatively accessible for the first few generations got a lot of people into community and out on track. These people were stripping out the interiors of brand new cars in 2004, just for DE. Is that stupid? yes! Is that fun? hell yes! Everyone assumed the price of the car wouldn't hold, so they instead enjoyed the car. It was a better vibe on rennlist 18 years ago. Not saying it's not fun now, some of that spirit is still here, but it's harder to find.
When the market gets crazy, there are two options.
1. Have a real waitlist that fills up years ahead or have a lottery for the cars. This could be done at a national level instead of dealing with individual dealers. Make it difficult to resell in less than a year. Make it illegal to charge ADM (it is illegal in many countries, this isn't new). While not all enthusiasts will get a car, this will eliminate the flippers to a large degree and create a transparent process that is a little more fair and will keep the brand aspirational instead of exclusive creating more loyal customers for Porsche in good times and bad (especially young ones who might not have patience for dealer games).
2. Allow dealers and flippers to hoard cars and sell them off to effectively the highest bidder. Flippers will sell to flippers, or at least buyers whose calculation of ownership includes getting their money out. Those buyers are motivated to drive less and risk less on their investment. Younger buyers who aren't super-rich and buyers that are more upper-middle class than upper class will be excluded and start looking elsewhere. There will still be GT3s at track days (esp. bay area!) but fewer and the vibe will be a little different.
With the current supply and demand, I don't think we can have as nice a community and cars in the hands of as many enthusiast track day drivers without taking some of the steps in option 1. However, option 1 is incompatible with the ideas of "a dealer and a buyer can do whatever they want, it's America!" Option 1 is better for the brand in the long term because Porsche would be more able to capture market trends when they want (raising prices) or expand their customer base (leave prices low and let people with a slightly wider range of incomes have a chance at buying). And again, option 1 is certainly better for the community and customer experience.
What people don't realize is that option 2 isn't really what people call a "free market" in the strictest sense. In a free market there has to be an agent (seller) who can price the car lower and get more supply to outcompete the competition. With a limited number of cars, the few dealers who sell at MSRP aren't getting hundreds of cars more than the ones who don't, so we are missing a mechanism on the supply side for prices to lower. Each dealer or flipper has only a few cars, so when one decides to sell for a little lower, there isn't much pressure on the other sellers. (Prices can come down, but they take longer) Although they aren't an organized cartel (think diamonds and oil), with few enough cars and similar actions from all sellers (hold and gorge), we effectively have a cartel. This isn't free market capitalism in the version that creates all the things we love about capitalism (efficiencies and innovation!). This is crappy cartel capitalism where a few agents leech on the economy. The version of capitalism that's great is the one that keeps Porsches competing with McLarens, Corvettes, BMWs, Mercs, etc. to create the best products. And for Porsche to be the most competitive in the game at that level, in the long run, they need to rein in their dealers.
Last edited by Yargk; 01-14-2023 at 02:15 AM.
The following 4 users liked this post by Yargk:
01-13-2023, 06:12 PM
#4266
So, I'm a long time lurker who is looking to buy a 992 GT3. I've held off buying because where I am in SoCal, the ADMs got crazy/bubblelicious, and I'd rather spend my money on other things versus an ADM. This thread has been helpful since Manifold, Ascend, usctrojan and others (even Welikethetrack) have, in my opinion, provided some good perspective on the market. I'm willing to pay a little markup on a car, but if it never gets there, then so be it. I'll buy something else. The economy is probably going to continue to weaken (see Jamie Dimon's commentary today about a mild recession being a base case), and industries that have products that are directly tied to interest rates will continue to feel it. Maybe GT3s are (much) more immune but it's clear prices are going to continue going down due the Fed's mission to supress inflation, the absence of crypto money buying luxury goods, etc.
What I've not found particularly helpful are the posters who have already bought their GT3, some of whom paid ADMs, who spew vitriol to anyone who dares say anything about ADMs. As has been said, I don't get why they post in this thread. You have your car, why do you care if there are others who don't want to pay an ADM or as little of it as possible? Whether it's because you feel bad for paying it or you just think it's stupid that people don't pay one for whatever reason, that's no reason to come on here and drive out posters who provide different viewpoints. Go enjoy your car and leave this thread if you can't help but engage in attacks that don't add anything.
What I've not found particularly helpful are the posters who have already bought their GT3, some of whom paid ADMs, who spew vitriol to anyone who dares say anything about ADMs. As has been said, I don't get why they post in this thread. You have your car, why do you care if there are others who don't want to pay an ADM or as little of it as possible? Whether it's because you feel bad for paying it or you just think it's stupid that people don't pay one for whatever reason, that's no reason to come on here and drive out posters who provide different viewpoints. Go enjoy your car and leave this thread if you can't help but engage in attacks that don't add anything.
This is a guy that has claimed to be #1 on his dealer's list for a 992 GT car at MSRP. If that is true, then why is he here?
Or maybe you find "value" in a poster (Ascend) who posts here every day and claims that he wouldnt even pay MSRP for a GT car... which begs the question why is he here?
And then there's that "We Like The Track" troll that you mentioned above who has been a broken clock for over 6 months and just underwent a reality check and self-ban.
Sounds like you are falling prey to confirmation bias.
The 992 GT3 performs at a level unmatched by any other brand of GT car at this price point. This key point appears to go ignored by the posters that you've mentioned. There's virtually no substitute.
Never mind that only 2,900 992 GT3's have been produced.
Never mind that there are stop-orders on PCCB's, LWB's, PTS, and continued supply-chain issues, etc.
Never mind that allocations are for all practical purposes, done. See you in late 2024 or early 2025.
And what will the ADM be then for the 992.2 which could very well be the last NA/ICE GT sports car built by Porsche. And what will the new MSRP be then?
As for the Fed and the financial markets . . . I learned a long time ago back on Wall Street that "what is obvious, is obviously wrong".
You might want to think about that for a moment.
Good Luck on your search for a GT3.
It's a truly phenomenal sports car.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 01-13-2023 at 07:25 PM.
01-13-2023, 07:27 PM
#4267
Perhaps you find "value" in someone repeating themselves over 200 times in the past three months (Manifold), but most here dont.
This is a guy that has claimed to be #1 on his dealer's list for a 992 GT car at MSRP. If that is true, then why is he here?
Or maybe you find "value" in a poster (Ascend) who posts here every day and claims that he wouldnt even pay MSRP for a GT car... which begs the question why is he here?
And then there's that "We Like The Track" troll that you mentioned above who has been a broken clock for over 6 months and just underwent a reality check and self-ban.
Even USCtrojan, who is on the anti-ADM "bandwagon" has had to admit that he pays an "ADM" when he sells his car back to his out of state dealer.
Since this seems to work for him given how many cars he turns-over within a year or two, I would suggest that his case is an "outlier" and it might not be all that suitable for someone like yourself, or others. Perhaps you find "value" in his economic comments. I've never had a problem with them or his opinion. But I would strongly suggest that his "situation" with trading in and out of Porsche's is quite different from most of us.
If you find "value" in an economic forum and are looking for views that confirm your own narrative, I would suggest going elsewhere and not looking for what you "want to hear" on a forum where a GT sportscar has a ton of demand for it by a tremendous amount of wealthy people with performance at a price point that no other brand can match. This is important and worthy of repeating one more time: The 992 GT3 performs at a level unmatched by any other brand of GT car at this price point. This key point appears to go ignored by the posters that you've mentioned. There's virtually no substitute.
Moreover, there have been posters here that have posted various "data" points along the way that have confirmed the demand for Porsche GT cars. Whether it has been auctions from BAT or something as simple as myself sharing that it's taken me 4 months to secure a PPF appointment at my local installer here in the Bay Area. But more often than not, the posters that you've named IGNORE these data points. That seems rather strange to me. Ask yourself why that is. Could it be because they dont want to hear it? Because they are biased?
Never mind that only 2,900 992 GT3's have been produced.
Never mind that there are stop-orders on PCCB's, LWB's, PTS, and continued supply-chain issues, etc.
As for the Fed and the financial markets . . . I learned a long time ago back on Wall Street that "what is obvious, is obviously wrong".
You might want to think about that for a moment.
Good Luck on your search for a GT3.
It's a truly phenomenal sports car.
This is a guy that has claimed to be #1 on his dealer's list for a 992 GT car at MSRP. If that is true, then why is he here?
Or maybe you find "value" in a poster (Ascend) who posts here every day and claims that he wouldnt even pay MSRP for a GT car... which begs the question why is he here?
And then there's that "We Like The Track" troll that you mentioned above who has been a broken clock for over 6 months and just underwent a reality check and self-ban.
Even USCtrojan, who is on the anti-ADM "bandwagon" has had to admit that he pays an "ADM" when he sells his car back to his out of state dealer.
Since this seems to work for him given how many cars he turns-over within a year or two, I would suggest that his case is an "outlier" and it might not be all that suitable for someone like yourself, or others. Perhaps you find "value" in his economic comments. I've never had a problem with them or his opinion. But I would strongly suggest that his "situation" with trading in and out of Porsche's is quite different from most of us.
If you find "value" in an economic forum and are looking for views that confirm your own narrative, I would suggest going elsewhere and not looking for what you "want to hear" on a forum where a GT sportscar has a ton of demand for it by a tremendous amount of wealthy people with performance at a price point that no other brand can match. This is important and worthy of repeating one more time: The 992 GT3 performs at a level unmatched by any other brand of GT car at this price point. This key point appears to go ignored by the posters that you've mentioned. There's virtually no substitute.
Moreover, there have been posters here that have posted various "data" points along the way that have confirmed the demand for Porsche GT cars. Whether it has been auctions from BAT or something as simple as myself sharing that it's taken me 4 months to secure a PPF appointment at my local installer here in the Bay Area. But more often than not, the posters that you've named IGNORE these data points. That seems rather strange to me. Ask yourself why that is. Could it be because they dont want to hear it? Because they are biased?
Never mind that only 2,900 992 GT3's have been produced.
Never mind that there are stop-orders on PCCB's, LWB's, PTS, and continued supply-chain issues, etc.
As for the Fed and the financial markets . . . I learned a long time ago back on Wall Street that "what is obvious, is obviously wrong".
You might want to think about that for a moment.
Good Luck on your search for a GT3.
It's a truly phenomenal sports car.
So, pot, meet kettle. I've read repetitive messages from all sides. Part of it is due to the "battle" in viewpoints, so yes, people are going to repeat themselves, including you.
I certainly have my views on where GT3 prices may be headed, but I didn't start reading this thread to get "validation." I'm not perfect in terms of analyzing situations and ultimately coming to conclusions - no one is. But, I want to hear different viewpoints to inform my decision and not operate in an echo chamber. Sometimes, I change my mind based on what I've heard. That's why I don't want posters to self-exile because they get beaten up. I want to hear their views. What's your view on prices? Do you think GT3s are a $275k-300k car, depending on spec? Yes, it's an awesome car and yes, it's limited but we just went through a period of so much stimulus, extremely low interest rates, a Fed that should have acted much sooner, etc. that created asset bubbles in many different areas. It's clear that the GT3 market, along with the rest of the car market, was over-inflated. Sometimes it takes time for bubbles to burst, or perhaps slowly deflate. The PPF installer that you keep mentioning - let's see if they are as busy later this year. Even if they are still busy because they are the cream of the crop of PPF installers, there are going to be other PPF installers that aren't going to be as busy.
I have no illusions that I will ever get an allocation. I think it's within the realm of possibility that I will find a GT3 on the resale market that is $25k over MSRP, taking into account the mileage, spec, etc. It may take a while, but I'm willing to wait, or it may not happen. While a GT3 is on the top of the list, I'm also willing to consider other cars that while they may not be as good, they are still great cars.
Finally, I don't follow what you said about what is obvious is obviously wrong. Are you saying there won't be recession, aka there will be a soft landing?
The following 4 users liked this post by Boltsfan:
01-13-2023, 07:54 PM
#4268
So, I'm a long time lurker who is looking to buy a 992 GT3. I've held off buying because where I am in SoCal, the ADMs got crazy/bubblelicious, and I'd rather spend my money on other things versus an ADM. This thread has been helpful since Manifold, Ascend, usctrojan and others (even Welikethetrack) have, in my opinion, provided some good perspective on the market. I'm willing to pay a little markup on a car, but if it never gets there, then so be it. I'll buy something else. The economy is probably going to continue to weaken (see Jamie Dimon's commentary today about a mild recession being a base case), and industries that have products that are directly tied to interest rates will continue to feel it. Maybe GT3s are (much) more immune but it's clear prices are going to continue going down due the Fed's mission to supress inflation, the absence of crypto money buying luxury goods, etc.
What I've not found particularly helpful are the posters who have already bought their GT3, some of whom paid ADMs, who spew vitriol to anyone who dares say anything about ADMs. As has been said, I don't get why they post in this thread. You have your car, why do you care if there are others who don't want to pay an ADM or as little of it as possible? Whether it's because you feel bad for paying it or you just think it's stupid that people don't pay one for whatever reason, that's no reason to come on here and drive out posters who provide different viewpoints. Go enjoy your car and leave this thread if you can't help but engage in attacks that don't add anything.
What I've not found particularly helpful are the posters who have already bought their GT3, some of whom paid ADMs, who spew vitriol to anyone who dares say anything about ADMs. As has been said, I don't get why they post in this thread. You have your car, why do you care if there are others who don't want to pay an ADM or as little of it as possible? Whether it's because you feel bad for paying it or you just think it's stupid that people don't pay one for whatever reason, that's no reason to come on here and drive out posters who provide different viewpoints. Go enjoy your car and leave this thread if you can't help but engage in attacks that don't add anything.
Though my posts tend to be a bit in between the extremes here, and I tend to change my opinion as we get more data about the market and I as I learn more about the GT3 market, an evolving thought process is not really accepted here either. Hopefully you do learn a few things that are useful in getting your car though. I have come across a handful of things in this forum that are very useful, you just have to read through it, and eventually you will realize how the messages mostly become circular. Then the people who were here for a while will get upset for reading the same thing again, from a new poster, yet will continue posting. From what I have seen the rest of the forum is not like this, so hopefully once we get our cars we can focus on those threads more.
The following 3 users liked this post by WCGhost:
01-13-2023, 08:24 PM
#4269
I had the exact same experiences when first joining and posting here, there are a lot of guys on this board that have opinions, make projections, but if others make projections or express even opinions which conflict the slightest bit with theirs, they tend to lose it. I find it less controversial to just post about the current market instead of projections or opinions. I mean i recently posted about how In my opinion dealers are more to blame than buyers, and someone came and started saying I was factually incorrect lol, there is no sense of comradery here, it is not an us against them place, it is a me against you place, and it is very competitive for some reason.
Though my posts tend to be a bit in between the extremes here, and I tend to change my opinion as we get more data about the market and I as I learn more about the GT3 market, an evolving thought process is not really accepted here either. Hopefully you do learn a few things that are useful in getting your car though. I have come across a handful of things in this forum that are very useful, you just have to read through it, and eventually you will realize how the messages mostly become circular. Then the people who were here for a while will get upset for reading the same thing again, from a new poster, yet will continue posting. From what I have seen the rest of the forum is not like this, so hopefully once we get our cars we can focus on those threads more.
Though my posts tend to be a bit in between the extremes here, and I tend to change my opinion as we get more data about the market and I as I learn more about the GT3 market, an evolving thought process is not really accepted here either. Hopefully you do learn a few things that are useful in getting your car though. I have come across a handful of things in this forum that are very useful, you just have to read through it, and eventually you will realize how the messages mostly become circular. Then the people who were here for a while will get upset for reading the same thing again, from a new poster, yet will continue posting. From what I have seen the rest of the forum is not like this, so hopefully once we get our cars we can focus on those threads more.
Last edited by av12345; 01-13-2023 at 08:26 PM.
01-13-2023, 08:39 PM
#4270
Some of you guys need to admit to yourselves that you waste too much time on social media and not use the “but I don’t post often” excuse - it doesn’t take much more additional time to participate in a discussion versus reading it like an eavesdropper. And why someone who’s not shopping for a car or interested in prices would even read an ADM discussion is beyond me.
and why you post nonesense without thinking of the nonsense you post is beyond me as well. guess in some worlds, we are even
01-13-2023, 08:41 PM
#4271
so, you come to THIS THREAD for value in understanding any of that?! No way you could be this dense. This is a BS forum with a bunch of us throwing BS at the wall. No way an engineer like you would find value in this fodder that you would actually take to the market, would you?!
The following users liked this post:
Diablo Dude (01-13-2023)
01-13-2023, 08:50 PM
#4272
Let's be clear about one thing though, Mani. Not everyone coming here is going to buy a GT3 any time soon (maybe like you?) and not everyone here panicks when reading that values are dropping (no **** they are dropping), but we all come here to read the BS. Plain and simple
01-13-2023, 09:05 PM
#4273
You dont see numbers like that if the economy is about to go into a Recession. But dont mind me, I clearly havent provided any objective value here as opposed to the posters that you enjoy following like Manifold, Ascend, USCtrojan, and We Like The Track.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Now back to your regularly scheduled "programming".
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 01-13-2023 at 09:11 PM.
01-13-2023, 09:07 PM
#4274
My guess is diablo spent his life saving + 401k on his gt3 so he gets very angry when he is told the obvious fact of gt3 price dropping lol.
Dude, look at what happened to 991.1 gt3. Exact same thing will happen to your investment of life 😂
01-13-2023, 09:15 PM
#4275
I guess someone's got to replace "We Like The Track" as the KingTroll of this thread.
Tell us more about your 997RS that you lied about owning.... or that MB GTR that you lied about owning.
lol
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 01-13-2023 at 09:49 PM.