maroli

Rolexes have given up half their gain since mid 2020 on aggregate. So we're sitting approximately halfway between pre-pandemic and the peak. Same with 991.2 GT3 prices; down 10-15% but still 10-15% higher than 2019. Not sure either will ever get back to 2019 pricing but equally think we're still due for more drops.

https://watchcharts.com/watches/brand_index/rolex

Manifold

If we don’t have a period of general deflation, some of the increases in prices may become locked in. Sustained high inflation really sucks.

maroli

Agreed, not sure we want prices to return to 2019 because of what that would imply about the larger economy

Ascend

I am sure that currently produced cars will come down to pre covid level but I wonder about F40 and CGT.

CGT was 700k, peaked at 1.6M and now dropped a little to 1.3M. Will it come down to pre covid? Sometimes the collectible cars price never come down to previous level.

Maverick787

Will be hit and miss 2020 was a good buying year, I got my Speedster 8/2020 MSRP PTS delivery miles it was a dealer flip that sat for close to a year. My white gold Daytona last June I could have sold for 60k, and MSRP I think I paid about 29k in Europe sub MSRP in 2018. Just watch the movie will be interesting to say the least.

AlexCeres

there is no circumstance in which the Fed will intentionally allow a period of general deflation. This inflation battle is all about cutting off future compounding inflation. The Fed doesn’t want deflation, and the powers that be simply won’t allow it. Can’t allow it. The governments would be all voted out (at best) Prices are never going back.

Ascend

General deflation likely wont happen but i think general price drop in luxury goods will happen. Patek phillipe and Rolex prices are dropping.

Manifold

I don’t see that being their intention, but I could happen.

ipse dixit

Not an economist, nor do I even pretend to play one in real life, but I feel like the drop in prices for luxury goods was due to low interest rate environment in the past fews years coupled with the volatility in the stock market. Luxury goods became the de facto safe investment to park your money.

Now, with rising rates, there's just less free money and liquidity to go around.

The really wealthy are still consuming luxury goods, but there's less demand overall b/c most of the rif-raff who have been buying because of the low interest rates/free money have now gone into hibernation.

welikethetrack

what ADM did you pay for your touring?

shrimp money

Are you saying, when the tide goes out, we see who wasn't really baller?

Ascend

This is what luxury watch market is now. Back in 2013, watches for bought to be worn and cars were bought to be driven. Very different world. I heard about guys putting a protective plastic cover on their rolexes while wearing them. Are you kidding me?

ipse dixit

Some interesting discussion on allocation and ADMs

@41:00

WCGhost

Congrats dude, as much back and forth as there is in this thread among us all, glad to see you get your car and in a beautiful spec at that.

welikethetrack

Definitely a nice looking gt3. Funny how in an ADM thread, he won't tell us what he paid though...

Also...driving around with the seat wrapping still on is pretty cringe lol