Ascend

I think the most crazy run up post covid was CGT and F40

CGT was 700k to peak at 1.7M. I see it stabilizing at 1.2-1.3M

RS 4.0 traded hands at 450k pre covid then peak at 700k. I see it going down to 600k or lower.

Whats the other early GT models you are talking about? 997.2 GT3 RS is around high 200s.

Honestly I dont see CGT going back to pre covid 700k but who knows.

Manifold

I remember when I thought RS 4.0 for $300k was in a bubble. I missed a lot of opportunities to buy certain cars (various air cooled 911s, the RS 4.0, 997.2 GT3RS, 997 GT2, etc.) at much lower prices than current prices, just didn't pull the trigger.

Ascend

Dont time the market. But I always do 😭😭😭

shrimp money

Isn’t that the irony of this entire thread though? Everyone says they’re going to buy when prices collapse to MSRP or 20% below MSRP, but when those conditions arise due to whatever world issues, everyone gets cold feet.

Ascend

That is true. Same for stocks. Really hard to buy after a hard drop.

1985Targa

Really thoughtful comment - but sorry Samuel lost me as credible market prognosticator when you said:
“He has always told me that he thinks prices will come down, he was actually surprised to see prices increased from +$30K to $100K”

Love his videos though!

Manifold

Yes, lower next year or two, below 3,500, maybe below 3,000. I'm looking at trends over years, not just weeks and months.

I expect GT prices to continue to trend down - there will be less and less people willing to pay big premiums to get these cars. If they don't work as investments, they're just cars.

- 992 gt cars are nice, but they're not 'the last great cars', and are competing with 997 and 991 gt and non-gt cars, as well as other brands. Anyone who thinks 991.1 GT3 isn't fast enough for the road is nuts, and 991.2 GTS is even faster than the 991.1 GT3.

- If someone wants an engaging manual NA 911 for the road, their options include 997 and 991.1 cars, which are PLENTY fast for the road and they turn just fine (992 not needed).

- I think that a lot of guys buying 992 GT3 RS for the road (prior to sufficient road tests) will find it to be too harsh, so there will be lightly used ones for sale, which will bring prices down (for the guys who plan to track it, more power to you!). From a practical standpoint, many guys who want a 911 RS may prefer 991.1 or 991.2 over 992, or may start looking at McLarens.

- GT4 RS may hold value better because it's so unique in the Porsche lineup.

Maverick787

Damn, many of you guys need to be on CNBC vs driving cars …….lots of gymnastics on the market that no one ever gets right. I just know in 2008 when all the crap hit I held and was in the middle of the divorce ex wanted the property and I kept all investment accounts. Her attorney was like year these accounts underwater take the property …….well I retired at 52 she’s still working and will so for a long time. 😎. Market comes back historically.

Targa32

Ontario Porsche ( California) has in their showroom - a gray GT3 touring - new- and is asking $65,000 over msrp. I would bet $50,000 over would do the trick. Ask for Primo - tell him Jeff sent you. I was called by a dealer ai bought two cars from in the last several years and offered an allocation for a GT3 for $60,000 over and again the salesman said “around $60,000 over”. Again seemed like $50,000 would seal the deal. Obvious that the markup has dropped by at least 50%.

With all these new models - GT3-RS and the Dakar and the America, the 911 T and GT4-RS that Porsche is spreading their high end buyers across a lot of possible options. Then throw in the new Z06 Vette and high interest rates, and the free money getting more scarce. Last- all the Flippers” are gone that we’re chasing new cars from the dealers and almost all the flippers that put down 10% and have lost their equity, are listing their car in the pre-owned market.

my guess is that dealers will be openly asking $25,000 over msrp in January.

The stock market will very likely bounce back in 2023- inflation is going to decline, the FED will stop the interest rate increases and the trillions in cash accumulating by institutions will flood back into the dividend paying equities. Cars and Rolex watches will again depreciate as they should and if you call a plumber they will actually show up at your house.

last prediction- Governor Brown of California will run when Biden retires and will win the Presidency. Why? Because my wife and her friends like his hair.

This is my story today and I am sticking to it.

last- thought- why all the rush to own a GT3? Noisy, rides harshly, no back seats, and even at msrp - too valuable to take on a track with all the guys running 2010 Caymans.

The best sports car - all things considered- is the new 911T. Too fast for the street, lightest weight, lots of room in the cabin, manual trans if you want to drive the car for fun and all the suspension goodies that help on a mountain road where PCA Sunday drives head on club events.

usctrojanGT3

Yeah, I missed a 11k mile silver CGT that was just fully serviced at Porsche Palm Springs in Nov 2020 for $699k by 1 day.

AlexCeres

if he’s selling all his cars, then he is by definition NOT ”pricing above market”. Literally, not how economics works.
the dealers don’t care about all these histrionics because there are plenty of other guys waiting to take your place for every car.

you’re all deeply confused. Wake me when Lambo and Ferrari aren’t sold out for 2 years, McLaren nearly so, and I can schedule a PPF next week and my dealer has a deep stock of floor inventory.

WCGhost

I think you may be misunderstood, list pricing is different from selling. Pricing as in he is listing his cars well above market, he is selling them at market from the guys I have spoken to. He usually adds their IG handles when he sells a car and takes videos of them, I have messaged a few GT3 customers, they are selling at market. If you look at the touring he listed at $340K it had a $186K sticker, to me this is an example of pricing above market, because the GT3 touring is not $154K+ over on a used example. You also made the assumption he actually sells these cars at asking, it has not sold since August, but I am sure when it does it will sell at market, they have been slowly decreasing the price on it. Another example is the Guards Red GT3 they had sitting all summer, it was listed at $110K over, it was being offered by brokers to me at $45K over and eventually sold for less than this. The prices dealers are getting are within the same range, the dealers who are listing cars at double the ADM are not actually selling them for this much, they are just dealers that rather have you negotiate, vs. others don't want to play the game and just list it closer to what they know they will sell it for. Hope this clears things up. Market price is still very high and those cars that did sell sold for a lot, I am simply saying they are not selling for the even higher list prices he has.

WCGhost

The car at Porsche Ontario was a decent spec, other than the red accents. I saw it yesterday before seeing this post, and was told it had sold last night. That car sold relatively quickly. So if the ADM was $50K, that seems like a number that will still move a car quickly if new and on the ground. Also, I have called some other dealers and they absolutely have allocations. The information on here saying allocations are gone, is completely false. The price for these remaining allocations is nearly six figures. Other dealers who had just sold out of their allocations, requested to take my info down in case they get more. The other piece of info I got was that production is not ending until September, and they said that date can be pushed back since they are behind, they said Porsche has not been providing definitive dates. $25k by January would be a dream, i think they will be openly asking for $50K by January just based on how quickly a good spec like the one at Porsche Ontario was sold, and less for a landed car. You may end up being right, and I hope you are, as the people who have quoted new allocation prices to me seemed like they had some room, but were just seeing where they could start the bidding essentially. Also, it sounds like they are expecting more cars next year, and depending on how much they can increase production and how far back they are pushing production could really change things.

WCGhost

Haha, yes he probably under priced his initial allocations, I think everyone did. He mentioned he bought back an earlier car he sold for more more than he initially sold it for. I think they had this window of where they could flip the GT3s at ridiculous prices fairly quickly, but it looks like that game of musical chairs ended and they are stuck with this high priced touring they have been asking $130K-$154K+ on I also noticed they are not really taking on used 992 GT3 inventory, so assuming they want to sell this car first. I am sure if they do end up taking a loss on this car, that they have made plenty of money this summer from GT3s and markups.

usctrojanGT3

What's where the big mark ups came from, idiot dealers overpaying for slightly used flipped cars. Just like idiots with more money than brains, dealers need to stop doing that or else they'll end up losing money.