A place to discuss all things ADM
#3151
Here's a sad story for you....I sold my 5K mile CGT in 2013 for $330K.....thought I did well in selling above my original purchase price and just didnt appreciate the car versus other options at that time. Anyhow, the run up on the CGT seems a little overdone but I still don't see well maintained ones losing more than 10-15% in the coming down cycle. Now, some of the other early model GTs that have run up to well above $500K seem far-fetched. What are your thoughts?
CGT was 700k to peak at 1.7M. I see it stabilizing at 1.2-1.3M
RS 4.0 traded hands at 450k pre covid then peak at 700k. I see it going down to 600k or lower.
Whats the other early GT models you are talking about? 997.2 GT3 RS is around high 200s.
Honestly I dont see CGT going back to pre covid 700k but who knows.
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Joe mac (11-26-2022)
#3152
Rennlist Member
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 13,409
Likes: 4,592
From: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
I remember when I thought RS 4.0 for $300k was in a bubble. I missed a lot of opportunities to buy certain cars (various air cooled 911s, the RS 4.0, 997.2 GT3RS, 997 GT2, etc.) at much lower prices than current prices, just didn't pull the trigger.
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Joe mac (11-26-2022)
#3153
Dont time the market. But I always do 😭😭😭
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Joe mac (11-26-2022)
#3154
Isn’t that the irony of this entire thread though? Everyone says they’re going to buy when prices collapse to MSRP or 20% below MSRP, but when those conditions arise due to whatever world issues, everyone gets cold feet.
The following 5 users liked this post by shrimp money:
AlexCeres (11-26-2022),
Ascend (11-25-2022),
carcommander (11-26-2022),
Manifold (11-25-2022),
Orca911 (11-25-2022)
#3155
That is true. Same for stocks. Really hard to buy after a hard drop.
#3156
I have known Samuel for a while, he is actually a very nice and straight forward guy. Even among brokers that know him that have mentioned his cars to me, they all have nothing but good things to say about him. However, as of late, he has been pricing his cars above market. He actually use to offer very competitive prices on GT3s when the 992 first came out ($30K ADM for new customers in March 2021). A lot of their cars are actually sold much below asking, they had a Guards Red 992 GT3 this summer they sold for ~$40K ADM, which for the summer that was one of the lowest priced cars, it never was listed below $100K ADM to public. They currently have had a low optioned touring for sale since August that they initially were asking $153K over on, still asking $130K over on it. I think they over paid for some cars so are stuck with them, and trying to make it up in other ways. There are a few people that go ahead and pay the crazy asking prices from them though, so it is worth it for them to at least try. A couple of these that were sold for full ask by BH, they were kids who got into NFTs, so i think those type of customers may be gone. He has always told me that he thinks prices will come down, he was actually surprised to see prices increased from +$30K to $100K. I think the dealers do not want to advertise selling a car for a lower ADM, otherwise the game ends sooner than theyd like. He has been doing this long enough to know that this will not last, that is what has been communicated to me. He actually is one of the few sales people who says prices may come down or prices will come down, depending on when you ask him. Other dealers will say prices will stay where they are, or they are not sure.
“He has always told me that he thinks prices will come down, he was actually surprised to see prices increased from +$30K to $100K”
Love his videos though!
#3157
Rennlist Member
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 13,409
Likes: 4,592
From: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
I expect GT prices to continue to trend down - there will be less and less people willing to pay big premiums to get these cars. If they don't work as investments, they're just cars.
- 992 gt cars are nice, but they're not 'the last great cars', and are competing with 997 and 991 gt and non-gt cars, as well as other brands. Anyone who thinks 991.1 GT3 isn't fast enough for the road is nuts, and 991.2 GTS is even faster than the 991.1 GT3.
- If someone wants an engaging manual NA 911 for the road, their options include 997 and 991.1 cars, which are PLENTY fast for the road and they turn just fine (992 not needed).
- I think that a lot of guys buying 992 GT3 RS for the road (prior to sufficient road tests) will find it to be too harsh, so there will be lightly used ones for sale, which will bring prices down (for the guys who plan to track it, more power to you!). From a practical standpoint, many guys who want a 911 RS may prefer 991.1 or 991.2 over 992, or may start looking at McLarens.
- GT4 RS may hold value better because it's so unique in the Porsche lineup.
Last edited by Manifold; 11-26-2022 at 10:29 AM.
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AlexCeres (11-26-2022)
#3158
Damn, many of you guys need to be on CNBC vs driving cars …….lots of gymnastics on the market that no one ever gets right. I just know in 2008 when all the crap hit I held and was in the middle of the divorce ex wanted the property and I kept all investment accounts. Her attorney was like year these accounts underwater take the property …….well I retired at 52 she’s still working and will so for a long time. 😎. Market comes back historically.
#3159
Ontario Porsche ( California) has in their showroom - a gray GT3 touring - new- and is asking $65,000 over msrp. I would bet $50,000 over would do the trick. Ask for Primo - tell him Jeff sent you. I was called by a dealer ai bought two cars from in the last several years and offered an allocation for a GT3 for $60,000 over and again the salesman said “around $60,000 over”. Again seemed like $50,000 would seal the deal. Obvious that the markup has dropped by at least 50%.
With all these new models - GT3-RS and the Dakar and the America, the 911 T and GT4-RS that Porsche is spreading their high end buyers across a lot of possible options. Then throw in the new Z06 Vette and high interest rates, and the free money getting more scarce. Last- all the Flippers” are gone that we’re chasing new cars from the dealers and almost all the flippers that put down 10% and have lost their equity, are listing their car in the pre-owned market.
my guess is that dealers will be openly asking $25,000 over msrp in January.
The stock market will very likely bounce back in 2023- inflation is going to decline, the FED will stop the interest rate increases and the trillions in cash accumulating by institutions will flood back into the dividend paying equities. Cars and Rolex watches will again depreciate as they should and if you call a plumber they will actually show up at your house.
last prediction- Governor Brown of California will run when Biden retires and will win the Presidency. Why? Because my wife and her friends like his hair.
This is my story today and I am sticking to it.
last- thought- why all the rush to own a GT3? Noisy, rides harshly, no back seats, and even at msrp - too valuable to take on a track with all the guys running 2010 Caymans.
The best sports car - all things considered- is the new 911T. Too fast for the street, lightest weight, lots of room in the cabin, manual trans if you want to drive the car for fun and all the suspension goodies that help on a mountain road where PCA Sunday drives head on club events.
With all these new models - GT3-RS and the Dakar and the America, the 911 T and GT4-RS that Porsche is spreading their high end buyers across a lot of possible options. Then throw in the new Z06 Vette and high interest rates, and the free money getting more scarce. Last- all the Flippers” are gone that we’re chasing new cars from the dealers and almost all the flippers that put down 10% and have lost their equity, are listing their car in the pre-owned market.
my guess is that dealers will be openly asking $25,000 over msrp in January.
The stock market will very likely bounce back in 2023- inflation is going to decline, the FED will stop the interest rate increases and the trillions in cash accumulating by institutions will flood back into the dividend paying equities. Cars and Rolex watches will again depreciate as they should and if you call a plumber they will actually show up at your house.
last prediction- Governor Brown of California will run when Biden retires and will win the Presidency. Why? Because my wife and her friends like his hair.
This is my story today and I am sticking to it.
last- thought- why all the rush to own a GT3? Noisy, rides harshly, no back seats, and even at msrp - too valuable to take on a track with all the guys running 2010 Caymans.
The best sports car - all things considered- is the new 911T. Too fast for the street, lightest weight, lots of room in the cabin, manual trans if you want to drive the car for fun and all the suspension goodies that help on a mountain road where PCA Sunday drives head on club events.
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#3160
I think the most crazy run up post covid was CGT and F40
CGT was 700k to peak at 1.7M. I see it stabilizing at 1.2-1.3M
RS 4.0 traded hands at 450k pre covid then peak at 700k. I see it going down to 600k or lower.
Whats the other early GT models you are talking about? 997.2 GT3 RS is around high 200s.
Honestly I dont see CGT going back to pre covid 700k but who knows.
CGT was 700k to peak at 1.7M. I see it stabilizing at 1.2-1.3M
RS 4.0 traded hands at 450k pre covid then peak at 700k. I see it going down to 600k or lower.
Whats the other early GT models you are talking about? 997.2 GT3 RS is around high 200s.
Honestly I dont see CGT going back to pre covid 700k but who knows.
#3161
I have known Samuel for a while, he is actually a very nice and straight forward guy. Even among brokers that know him that have mentioned his cars to me, they all have nothing but good things to say about him. However, as of late, he has been pricing his cars above market.
the dealers don’t care about all these histrionics because there are plenty of other guys waiting to take your place for every car.
you’re all deeply confused. Wake me when Lambo and Ferrari aren’t sold out for 2 years, McLaren nearly so, and I can schedule a PPF next week and my dealer has a deep stock of floor inventory.
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#3162
if he’s selling all his cars, then he is by definition NOT ”pricing above market”. Literally, not how economics works.
the dealers don’t care about all these histrionics because there are plenty of other guys waiting to take your place for every car.
you’re all deeply confused. Wake me when Lambo and Ferrari aren’t sold out for 2 years, McLaren nearly so, and I can schedule a PPF next week and my dealer has a deep stock of floor inventory.
the dealers don’t care about all these histrionics because there are plenty of other guys waiting to take your place for every car.
you’re all deeply confused. Wake me when Lambo and Ferrari aren’t sold out for 2 years, McLaren nearly so, and I can schedule a PPF next week and my dealer has a deep stock of floor inventory.
Last edited by WCGhost; 11-26-2022 at 07:51 PM.
#3163
Ontario Porsche ( California) has in their showroom - a gray GT3 touring - new- and is asking $65,000 over msrp. I would bet $50,000 over would do the trick. Ask for Primo - tell him Jeff sent you. I was called by a dealer ai bought two cars from in the last several years and offered an allocation for a GT3 for $60,000 over and again the salesman said “around $60,000 over”. Again seemed like $50,000 would seal the deal. Obvious that the markup has dropped by at least 50%.
With all these new models - GT3-RS and the Dakar and the America, the 911 T and GT4-RS that Porsche is spreading their high end buyers across a lot of possible options. Then throw in the new Z06 Vette and high interest rates, and the free money getting more scarce. Last- all the Flippers” are gone that we’re chasing new cars from the dealers and almost all the flippers that put down 10% and have lost their equity, are listing their car in the pre-owned market.
my guess is that dealers will be openly asking $25,000 over msrp in January.
The stock market will very likely bounce back in 2023- inflation is going to decline, the FED will stop the interest rate increases and the trillions in cash accumulating by institutions will flood back into the dividend paying equities. Cars and Rolex watches will again depreciate as they should and if you call a plumber they will actually show up at your house.
last prediction- Governor Brown of California will run when Biden retires and will win the Presidency. Why? Because my wife and her friends like his hair.
This is my story today and I am sticking to it.
last- thought- why all the rush to own a GT3? Noisy, rides harshly, no back seats, and even at msrp - too valuable to take on a track with all the guys running 2010 Caymans.
The best sports car - all things considered- is the new 911T. Too fast for the street, lightest weight, lots of room in the cabin, manual trans if you want to drive the car for fun and all the suspension goodies that help on a mountain road where PCA Sunday drives head on club events.
With all these new models - GT3-RS and the Dakar and the America, the 911 T and GT4-RS that Porsche is spreading their high end buyers across a lot of possible options. Then throw in the new Z06 Vette and high interest rates, and the free money getting more scarce. Last- all the Flippers” are gone that we’re chasing new cars from the dealers and almost all the flippers that put down 10% and have lost their equity, are listing their car in the pre-owned market.
my guess is that dealers will be openly asking $25,000 over msrp in January.
The stock market will very likely bounce back in 2023- inflation is going to decline, the FED will stop the interest rate increases and the trillions in cash accumulating by institutions will flood back into the dividend paying equities. Cars and Rolex watches will again depreciate as they should and if you call a plumber they will actually show up at your house.
last prediction- Governor Brown of California will run when Biden retires and will win the Presidency. Why? Because my wife and her friends like his hair.
This is my story today and I am sticking to it.
last- thought- why all the rush to own a GT3? Noisy, rides harshly, no back seats, and even at msrp - too valuable to take on a track with all the guys running 2010 Caymans.
The best sports car - all things considered- is the new 911T. Too fast for the street, lightest weight, lots of room in the cabin, manual trans if you want to drive the car for fun and all the suspension goodies that help on a mountain road where PCA Sunday drives head on club events.
Last edited by WCGhost; 11-26-2022 at 07:40 PM.
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EMdoc (11-26-2022)
#3164
Haha, yes he probably under priced his initial allocations, I think everyone did. He mentioned he bought back an earlier car he sold for more more than he initially sold it for. I think they had this window of where they could flip the GT3s at ridiculous prices fairly quickly, but it looks like that game of musical chairs ended and they are stuck with this high priced touring they have been asking $130K-$154K+ on I also noticed they are not really taking on used 992 GT3 inventory, so assuming they want to sell this car first. I am sure if they do end up taking a loss on this car, that they have made plenty of money this summer from GT3s and markups.
Last edited by WCGhost; 11-26-2022 at 08:02 PM.