halfmonkey

Even with the Fed saying they're going to raise interest rates 75bps this week, we're still in a low interest rate environment. Compared that to some months ago where we were at unprecedented low levels at under 3% for fixed rates. I never thought I would see below 3% fixed rates in my lifetime.

So even with the Fed raising interest rates to say 4, 5, or even 6%, historically those are still low rates. If the Fed is going to aggressively combat this 8.6% inflation, they should have started raising interest rates like a year ago or more. Raising these rates will obviously have an affect on people spending and will slow it down a little but if they really want to curb spending, I don't think that will really happen until rates get above 7%. Historically 7% is still low but I think mentally once people start seeing 7%, 8%, and especially above 9%, that will really put downward pressure on inflation and then you will start to see ADM disappear. Until then, I think ADM is here to stay.

For those outside of CA, interest rates are so low that when you go to sell your house, people are bidding $100k over listing price right off the bat and in some cases that's not even within $50k of the highest bidder or someone paying with cash so $10k, $15k,$20k, or even $25k ADM on a car is pretty much par for the course in this environment. I mean, minivans are getting $5k ADM. Never in my life did I think I would live to see the day where minivans are selling over MSRP but here we are.

A funny side note although I forget where exactly I read this, is the best indicator of market performance is not stock market, news, CPI, or any other research. The best indicator is (and I'm trying to say this in the most PC way possible) a stripper. Apparently the article said that the adult entertainment industry is the best indicator of market performance because when things are going well, the strip joints are full and the dollars are flying. When the economy slow downs, the strippers know because they immediately see a slow down in business and the tips aren't as great. Go figure. So I guess some of you will need to go down to your local strip joint for research on the economy.

F1-DNA

According to this stripper it's happening now.. haha
https://www.indy100.com/viral/market...pers-recession

welikethetrack

I noted 5 days ago when their was 108 2022 gt3's for sale, there was 16 2022 gt4's for sale.

Now, there is 116 2022 Gt3's for sale, and 14 2022 GT4's for sale in the whole country...

As someone with a small ADM GT4 on order, I actually think GT4 and GT3 will be sticker by year's end with how ugly this economy will get. But, the gt4 your options will be a joke (very small) from what to choose from. GT3 owners are like 95% posers, GT4/spyder people are buying a very niche car without the hype, more like 95% Enthusiast! It's like the GT3 market in 2007 before they got "cool" and it was really just the enthusiast that owned and it and much less price sensitive. They won't be unloading GT4's if they fall in price. Gt3 owners get them because of financial reasons as they think they just HODL so much value they own them for free and look cool in the process. There will be a lot (even more) for sale by year's end. 116 is the low mark for the rest of the year on gt3 inventory. GG gt3 market, but I think GT4 market won't sink past sticker as I don't see much more than a dozen or so being for sale with the tiny production left.

I sold my 2019 gt3rs because I wanted a manual again and truly thought the gt4 is more fun and comfortable as a daily. Those have gone to dumb values because same posers that buy the GT3 to look cool and allegedly save money ran those values up. As an owner I didn't even understand it as they aren't even rare and they make Gt3/rs after gt3/rs year after year.

I am STOKED at the idea of getting the last small N/A GT car from Porsche. I truly don't think they even build a normal GT4 past Dec 2022. And I don't see GT4 owners "dumping" their cars anytime soon as it is more a recreational/sport car than a financial or ego decision like the Gt3 is for many.

So, yes I think you will be able to get sticker or very close, but your options will be very limited

F1-DNA

I agree. In the US right now there are between 40-60 used GT4’s for sale and many have been up there for a long time.

Thefullsend

If anyone wants a minimal spec 2022 GT4 at 20K ADM I can give you the info. Car will be delivered in August.

*991*

That 1300 mile 981 GT4 Msrp $103k just sold on BAT for $122k plus $5k bat fee. So if u really want a car buy em when u can ADM or not

Xxyion

Yeah my local car group was just talking about that. Pretty surprising. One of the members bought a 981 GT4 a few months ago with like 7k miles for around 107k. Bucket seats, roll cage. Pretty decently specced out. Definitely showing that the market really isn't slowing down at all. I mean sure this has 6k less miles and PCCB I think? But I don't think that alone should command a 13k premium.

TXshaggy

Yes, plus the color which is highly regarded. Sub 2000 miles; people love the low mile queens.

rusmani

Market is only "cooling" for people on the sidelines

Bearrun21

For the US-market, what it the noise (if any) of a fresh round of July allocations from Porsche?

Part 2, if a dealer has a demand order entered (with sold to customer name), any intelligence if Porsche gives that some type of priority?

Xxyion

no-one really knows, however that being said I wouldn't be surprised to see some allocations pop up. Myself a bunch of others got allocations in May.

Bob Z.

None and no!

TXshaggy

July allocations were gone a long time ago. The allocation month is the build month. Do you mean will any build allocations drop in July?

Every dealer has waiting lists a mile long. Dealer allocations are not determined by demand orders. Primarily volume and premier status. Demand orders don’t move the needle

UncleDude

I’m sure the two items you mention above are the most important, but the demand order must play a role at some level, otherwise why would they even have the process in place?

Xxyion

If it does play a role, its a super super super minor one. I believe all it does is give Porsche metrics on the demand for a specific vehicle. This allows their team to decide on how many to make, how long to make it for, and how many resources should be getting put towards the next one.

As far as playing a role for us as a buyer? As far as I'm aware it does absolutely nothing. As Porsche themselves even have stated, it does not guarantee a vehicle/build. Someone had a code chart floating around here and a demand order seems like its an equivalent to a V070(?) code which basically says that Porsche has received your order through your dealership and is aware you want one. But it doesn't guarantee a build or a vehicle.

Only the V200 code is the one that really matters. That one specifically states that a build date and delivery date has been estimated with a planned production date for your build. You'll know if you have an allocation when you get a build sheet with a V200 code on it. Then you're in business.