peterp

Do the math on how many gallons of gas equivalent energy the Model S battery holds to go 300 to 400 miles.

Consider that batteries are built once, last 20 years, and are now designed to be recyclable. EVs are already viable as proven by Teslas going for years without subsidies. Tesla (not the government) also built the most majority of effective charging infrastructure across the US. Your data sources aren’t science and are lying to you.

Without question we need a battery cost breakthrough to make them more universally viable. For people who buy or lease new cars every few years, they are extremely viable, never seen anybody go back to ICE for daily driving. after owning a Tesla.

QwikKotaTX

Seeing as the Model S has only been around for ~10 years, that 20 year battery life statement is meaningless.

The batteries may be recyclable but the mining of the materials on the front end is what is terrible for the environment let alone involving child labor in poor working conditions.

peterp

And drilling and fracking for oil is perfectly clean . And it gets burned up immediately.

After use in cars, the batteries are used for low-recharge-cycle energy storage. So 10 years in cars (already proven), 10+ years in storage, then recycling.

philbert996

Remember that the government knows what is best for you!
You'll drive an EV and save the planet.

GC996

Well, in spite of the fears of not having any fuel for the 996, prices continue to hold their own. Potential buyers arent losing any sleep. Looks like the upcoming 996 BAT auctions look to be pretty firm. What i really like is the 996 Turbo is finally getting some love.

bdronsick

Batteries lasting 20 years is about as likely as the market ever wanting an electric Rolex, or Harley

Green ideology is entrenched; that’s painfully obvious from this thread. But it will never displace ICE. Never

marosmith

👏❤️

GC996

Welcome back Bdron. Don't know if you were in Chile working on the efuel project or negotiation the IMSA efuel deal. But its good to see you on the thread.

EVOMMM

Ok so the real solution is HYDROGEN power then
peterp electrify your Porsche your too much of an advocate not to
bdron and GC im with you
anyway I’m almost 60 so getting a ev is unlikely maybe a hybrid
until I’m buried I will continue to burn gas through my glorious soundtrack on my Porsches

GC996

The long term answer may be hydrogen or some other process that has yet to be invented.

But over the next 5-10 years, every car manufacturer seems to be gearing up for the next phase of hybrids which are considered a subset of EVs within the industry data.

1.4 billion ICE vehicles will eventually dwindle over the next decade being replaced by Battery EV and Hybrid EV. A common sense bet would be that hybrid EV sales will end up dwarfing battery EV sales over the next 10 years for many reasons.

One of which is the distance mileage advantages of the hybrid over the EV which can't be ignored.

The second is that once the automakers get behind what they are doing in F1, WEC, IMSA etc with the synthetic fuel powered turbo hybrids that take the best of ICE and EV technology, they will market the hell out of it and people will get excited and buy a hybrid EV over a battery EV. As racing technology goes, so goes retail car technology production.

But none of this addresses the aggregate environmental mess created by mining, manufacturing and disposal of batteries. Doesn't seem to be a line item in the emmisions number just yet. So everyone feels good buying a Battery EV and Hybrid EV. But this will change.

In the meantime, we will have synthetic fuels sometime in the future to power our classic cars and hybrids. Synthetic fuel production capacity and the speed that the 1.4 billion ICE vehicles in the world are exchanged for battery EVs and Hybrid EV over the next decade will determine how long we keep petrol fuel on the market. Who knows, maybe the politicians agree on a mix of synthetic amd petrol gas with a phase out over time.

Alot of variables and alot of money (expenses amd revenues) at stake for the car manufacturers, oil companies, businesses and consumers.

wdb

My wife just bought a hybrid and I have to say the drivetrain is entertaining. It has enough KW to drive full electric for short distances at low speeds, which it did quite a bit when we were toodling around towns on Cape Cod. It may or may not start the engine while sitting in the garage waiting to back out, which is a bit eerie. When it does run, the engine does not make any kind of pleasant sounds, and it delivers power through a CVT. But it has plenty of HP and LB/FT, and it returns nearly 40MPG, both of which make my wife very happy. The best thing about it IMO is that it has finally gotten her to stop being cheap about buying gas! It takes premium, and since she's already having to pay the higher price she's decided to actually buy the stuff at Top Tier locations. Mostly.

Back to prices. My targa follow is up to $24K with a bit over a day to go. I'm really interested to see where it ends up. Mostly I'm curious if targas will ever become thought of as special cars within the 996 generation.

peterp

I’m not an advocate for EV (my 996 and vintage car aren’t going anywhere). I’m just setting the record straight. I happen to have a background in engineering, but nobody needs that because the math is as basic as it gets.

The battery in Tesla’s heavy Model S luxury car holds the equivalent energy of 2.9 gallons of gas and it will go 300-400 miles on that 2.9 gallons. That’s all you need to know. ICE will not ever come close. I hope we still have ICE’s for specialty cars, and I’m super excited about hydrogen fuel for my ICE “forever” cars, but ICEs are not the future for mainstream daily transportation.

As far as energy use goes, if you pay 12 cents a kWh for electricity, it will cost you only $13 to charge a Model S from dead to fully charged. If you look at the breakdown of power from your utility, you will likely see a meaningful percentage of renewables, so recharging is largely clean also.

If you pay $200 a month for electricity, each full charging for 300-400 miles of range is only about 6% of what you already pay monthly. The energy impact of EV’s is gradual and the grid will scale as needed. It would be ridiculously wasteful and expensive to build excess grid capacity far in advance, that just sits idle when EV production is limited by battery cost/logistics.

All of this is basic math and not debatable.

EVOMMM

Peter I’m just playing life is serious enough
but overall costs without subsidies and long term use costs I believe are about the same the difference is there are companies that can rebuild my 25year old gas car
but will a 25 year old EV be rebuilt or junked for bigger and better technology
I don’t see as of today this happening they wil be trashed like my old electric razor

GC996

Agreed.

ICE as a standalone with new car sales has reached its peak market share.

But to your point on the Tesla getting the equivalent of 100-130 MPG, now take that platform and add a next generation ICE engine to it to create a hybrid, one that is powered by synthetic fuel and you now have the capability to continuously recharge the battery and go on a 1500 mile journey with 15 gallons of synthetic fuel.

This is why hybrids will dwarf battery EVs in sales when the car industry rolls out the 2nd phase of hybrids over the next few years.

peterp

Until they solve they have a breakthrough on battery cost, EV’s are not practical for everyone. There are a ton of people who buy or lease a new car every few years and that’s the sweet spot. The Tesla battery warranty is 8 years, so they don’t have to worry about battery issues or resale value tanking at the end of 4ish year cycle.

EV’s don’t currently work (in my opinion) as 25 year cars like ICE’s can. The EV maintenance will be less and repairs are usually very straightforward because there just aren’t that many components compared to ICE and EV’s are far simpler. That said, battery replacement, when it is eventually needed, is absolutely outrageous - can be as high as $25k or more, and I think replacements can be hard to find new. I’d assume used battery replacements might be available, but I don’t think EVs are good for 25 year ownership.

Also, for those who can’t charge at home, it’s not worth it to own an EV because there will be little or no “fuel” savings if you have to use 3rd party chargers with heavy markup on electricity charges. For those who can charge at home though, they will typically rarely ever need to use a supercharger because you can start every day with a full tank.

My sister-in-law has had her Model Y for two years and has had to use a Tesla Supercharger only once, during an out of state trip. It was 20 minutes to get an 85% charge. Teslas are livable for occasional long trip use because of its Supercharger network. Non-Teslas are far less easy to use for long trips because the charging availability and quality can be pretty spotty.