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I got a good laugh out of the claim that 911 ST prices are also going to fall off a cliff. I don't most much anymore, but someone poke me when those are 10% off MSRP. Thanks.
You got it! I'll reserve 2 after they fall off the cliff..
I hope you don't think one day of the stock market is a predictor of the economy.
The people that have their buying power for discretionary items like GT cars tied to the financial markets either indirectly through option grants or direct investment would beg to differ with you. I've repeatedly pointed this out on numerous occasions, but it seems to go right over people's heads.
Case in point: The Nasdaq experienced its best FIRST HALF of a year in 40 years and the demand for Porsche GT cars has continued to be strong.- - - This is in stark contrast to the hundreds of posts over the last 12 months by a handful of posters here who repeatedly posted forecasts of "doom and gloom" and have been flat-out wrong. They may wish to revisit their "interpretation" of the yield curve, because the markets don't respond to it the way that the "casual" market observer thinks.
The massive rally since the beginning of the month is a reflection of this.
That's why I posted the post that I did a couple of weeks ago about how the 2 year was a screaming buy.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 11-14-2023 at 12:36 PM.
The people that have their buying power for discretionary items like GT cars tied to the financial markets either indirectly through option grants or direct investment would beg to differ with you. I've repeatedly pointed this out on numerous occasions, but it seems to go right over people's heads. Case in point: The Nasdaq experienced its best FIRST HALF of a year in 40 years and the demand for Porsche GT cars has continued to be strong.- - - This is in stark contrast to the hundreds of posts over the last 12 months by a handful of posters here who repeatedly posted forecasts of "doom and gloom" and have been flat-out wrong.
I may be atypical. My willingness to buy things like GT cars isn't really contingent on how the markets are doing because my investments are pretty conservative.
I may be atypical. My willingness to buy things like GT cars isn't tied much to the value of my investment portfolio, because my investments are pretty conservative.
If atypical, then why not refrain from making generalizations as you have done repeatedly.
If atypical, then why not refrain from making generalizations as you have done repeatedly.
I made some predictions about the economy. Obviously got the timing wrong. I don't expect that anyone here was relying on my predictions or giving them much weight, though I was in good company with my predictions. We'll see what next year brings.
The people that have their buying power for discretionary items like GT cars tied to the financial markets either indirectly through option grants or direct investment would beg to differ with you. I've repeatedly pointed this out on numerous occasions, but it seems to go right over people's heads. Case in point: The Nasdaq experienced its best FIRST HALF of a year in 40 years and the demand for Porsche GT cars has continued to be strong.- - - This is in stark contrast to the hundreds of posts over the last 12 months by a handful of posters here who repeatedly posted forecasts of "doom and gloom" and have been flat-out wrong.
Yeah but some high up (cleaning person perhaps) at Porsche predicted that prices for GT cars and specifically the S/T are going over a cliff? Is that in the second-hand market or are they going to start reducing MSRP's to keep ADMs strong for the dealers? I wonder what they know?
I would agree that there are many people with options and RSUs that have done well this past 18 months. In fact the market correction last year "helped" as RSU grants in many cases are priced in $$ and so a low stock price in 2022 translates into more shares granted and so when the market rebounds like it has - you get a "double bump" on the upside when they vest in 2023 and beyond (more shares and a higher stock price).
If atypical, then why not refrain from making generalizations as you have done repeatedly.
I think its OK to have a point of view and discuss - in a civil fashion. Many economists and experts make predictions and many are right and many are wrong. Mani seems a little pessimistic and that's fine - many people predicted a very bumpy landing as we took away free money to bring inflation down. Some economists thought inflation was transitory and they got that wrong. Its been far tougher (not just in the US i may add) to bring it under control. You also have a point of view. None of us are (or should be) basing our buying decisions (how much to pay) based on what anyone thinks on RL. In fact if you go back to the beginning of this 5 million page thread. People were shocked that ADMs were 30-50 over and most people suggested they'll build a ton of them and the economy would suffer and just be patient and prices would revert down / to MSRP. Bottom line - none of that happened and if anything prices have gone up 2+ years later.
I think its OK to have a point of view and discuss - in a civil fashion. Many economists and experts make predictions and many are right and many are wrong. Mani seems a little pessimistic and that's fine - many people predicted a very bumpy landing as we took away free money to bring inflation down. Some economists thought inflation was transitory and they got that wrong. Its been far tougher (not just in the US i may add) to bring it under control. You also have a point of view. None of us are (or should be) basing our buying decisions (how much to pay) based on what anyone thinks on RL. In fact if you go back to the beginning of this 5 million page thread. People were shocked that ADMs were 30-50 over and most people suggested they'll build a ton of them and the economy would suffer and just be patient and prices would revert down / to MSRP. Bottom line - none of that happened and if anything prices have gone up 2+ years later.
I continue to think a rough landing is more likely than not, but my decisions aren't based on 100% confidence that there will be a rough landing. For example, my company has a heavy workload and is in a mode to hire; if things slow down, we'll deal with that then. My car buying isn't much affected by the economy, since I don't pay ADM, I buy cars to drive (not for collection or investment), and I assume that my cars will depreciate.
Good thing that recession is coming to deflate the ADMs.
A big thank you to all those RL armchair economists out there.
not that I care too much about ADMs other than an interesting manifestation of economics, but the markets are rallying because CPI is lower, causing yields to go lower, and yields are lower because it implies long term inflation is coming down. There's a reason a yield curve inverts when people think a recession is coming. no idea if we'll have a recession or just a soft landing but this rally isn't based on 'economy is booming', it's a relief rally that's based on largely shelter costs not continuing to shoot up (which has been a long time coming), energy prices dropping, and interestingly on car prices dropping (it's a CPI component)
11-14-2023, 11:46 AM
