ipse dixit

CIFY

Diablo Dude

Much of what you've stated is already known by market participants.

It's why the yield on the 10 year note has increased back up to 3.83% from just 3.39 on Feb. 1st and why Fed Funds Futures are at a terminal rate (for August) of 5.28%
This is literally the same terminal rate that the Fed had guided to back in December ( 5.00 - 5.25% ). So the market is in lock-step with the Fed. The only thing that has changed are the market participants that had been anticipating a rate cut by the end of the year. Those people are gone.

I've noticed that you're posts here have often regurgitated the same bearish thesis time and time again.
I've warned you about "what is obvious, is obviously wrong", but you've been dismissive. Interestingly enough, you dont believe that the inflation rate can come down even with a strong unemployment rate. Yet, inflation has been coming down regardless.
That's a fact.

I find it interesting that there's still a handful of anti-ADM posters on this board still posting their (conflated) narrative of the potential GT car buyer and the impending doom of a Recession.

We repeatedly hear posters talking about student debt and credit card debt surging, as if those people are in the market for a Porsche GT car. They continue to talk about how the economy is weakening and heading for Recession. They've been a broken clock for literally 8 months straight. I dont know if you trade the financial markets, but if you do and you've placed the kind of bearish bets that correspond with your thesis, you've clearly suffered a lot of pain since the beginning of the year. The "gloom and doom" crowd would have never in their wildest dreams imagined the strongest increase in Retail Sales in 2 years at 3.0% for January, let alone an S&P 500 index trading as high as 4195 this year. That's a FACT.

These are the same people who conveniently ignore the prospect that adjusting for taxes and inflation, total household income will most likely rise at a 2.5% annual rate in the first quarter and a 2.3% rate in the second quarter. - - - All this, after contracting 6.4% last year.

I've seen forecasts of inflation-adjusted incomes growing at a 5.3% annual rate in Q1.
Its one of the reasons that Goldman Sachs has lowered their estimate of a probability of a Recession to 25% from 35%.

The funny part of all of this is that we've seen people then take their opinion about how the economy will wind up in Recession, and this will bring down ADM's and allow for people to buy GT cars at MSRP.

They've been like a broken "clock" for months and months and yet they still think they have credibility when it comes to posting the same thing over and over again.
Perhaps they'll finally be "right" about a Recession . . . and I'm sure that they'll be the first to show up here and tell you so.
Never mind that allocations for the 992.1 are toast and this past week saw a Touring trade for $82,000 over.

Just came back from a spirited post breakfast drive this morning in glorious 64 degree weather here in the Bay Area

Sadly, I put mileage on my car and it's depreciating while I speak.
I guess I better put it on BAT and get my ADM back before the Recession
starts and those people with student debt and charge card debt wont be able to buy my car.

AlexCeres

A lower minimum wage won’t do **** if the problem is people refusing to accept current market wages. It’s like Porsche cutting MSRP and the market rate the dealers charge remaining unchanged. It’d be a gimmick. Indeed many of the service jobs I see unfilled are because the owners refuse to offer more than the minimum wage. Offering less is not going to magically make those jobs more interesting.

AlexCeres

H-1B did what it was intended to do, which is reduce the negotiating power of extremely expensive high skill and difficult to replace labor. FANG made a lot of money on it. A lot of tech folks have the same difficulty understanding basic supply and demand as this forum. Corporate ain’t never doing you favors.

TRAKCAR

It should soften, but it will come in shocks and crashes, prices crashing up and crashing down.

Just because the White House changed the definition of a recession doesn’t mean we’re not in one.
GDP + 4% with real CPI at 10% lol.

5+% on cash is inflationary.. higher for longer only until something breaks or gets launched.

They changed the calculation yet again this month calculating CPI, all the job growth numbers are more parttime job for the same working people and a reduction in real unemployment.

unemployment numbers are twisted, labor participation has plummeted.

It takes a few years but 2024 and 2025 demand will be nothing like it is today, China’s re opwinding Hail Mary isn’t working, Europe is worse off and the White House likes nothing more then giving shots and selling war.

So no judgment for the people paying $100K over because who knows what tomorrow brings…
But deals are coming for those that wait, it’s like that every time.

Manifold

And I think Porsche expects that demand will fall, which is why they didn’t gear up to pump out a surplus of cars and substantially raise MSRP beyond inflationary increase. I see no reason to believe that we’re in a new era where demand will remain far above supply for many years.

WenigerAberBeser

that article is pretty lame… 2 paragraphs lol. It basically says 9.3% of loans extended to sub-prime consumers were >30 days delinquent. I mean, of course they are because they are sub-prime.

macro though, I think your point is right, tons of people took out loans for everything in the past 2 years because why not? Cheap money! 2023 will be interesting to see what happens and how many over extended themselves

how that affects the used 992 gt3 market, who knows

Boltsfan

Oh, Double Ds. Should I call you Cathie Wood? Or maybe Tom Lee? Are you a permabull? As I have said many times, I readily admit that I don't know all of the answers and am making educated guesses, so the fact that you are so sure about what will happen makes me question everything you say. I am repeating myself because you either don't hear what I say or forget what I have said, but I analyze things and make conclusions as to what likely may or may not happen. If you want to label me, okay, I guess that I lean towards the bearish camp but beyond that, you're just flat out inaccurately characterizing me. As for trading, I've traded equities for over 25 years now. I'm a buy and hold kind of guy, with occasional repositioning as I see fit. I bought a lot at the recent lows but have also had my hand cut catching a falling knife at times. So whether it's currently a bear market rally that runs out of steam or a true rally, I am agnostic because I'm holding for the long term.

Just because inflation has rolled over (or at least for the time being appears to have done so) doesn't mean that we are anywhere close to a 2% rate, which Powell has made very clear is the target, barring him doing an about face. You do realize that, right?

Other than the uber, filthy rich, we don't live in an economic bubble. What happens to people who have student loans, etc. will ultimately affect the broader economy. Yes, they aren't the ones who are buying GT3s or other similar kinds of cars, but the ones who may be in the market, like executives at companies, small business owners, etc., will be affected in some way by what happens in the broader economic environment. Does that not compute?

It's funny that you don't seem to acknowledge that the market for GT3s, along with other high-end cars, was over-inflated by excesses. There was so much free money flowing out there, including those damn PPP loans that some people abused/defrauded the gov't and bought high-end cars, which certainly happened more than the stories you are starting to hear about. Markets ultimately normalize. It's called reversion to the mean.

Manifold

Good perspectives on economic and markets stuff on the Wealthion channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/Wealthion?app=desktop

Most of the guests are bearish over the past year+, but Adam tries to get guests to make the bullish case also. Fundamentals seem to support the bearish case. Some rise in stock prices is simply due to inflation, and doesn't reflect good earnings outlook.

AlexCeres

there isn’t any evidence the high end car market has seen since 2019 nor will see through 2025 supply meeting demand. Not for Porsche, Ferrari, McLaren or Lambo. Not even for new Vettes. Prices reflected free cash and were inflated for sure, lolz G Wagon, but demand isn’t going to crater with a brief recession. Several years of underfill across many marques is not going away quickly. Hell my dealer has a 1.5 - 2 year wait for an Carrera. Aside from some Crypto jockeys, no serious buyers in these markets care.

could that change ? Maybe. Has it ? Nope.

WenigerAberBeser

not to mention that if there is a recession, a lot of guys ‘waiting’ for a deal will get cold feet

shrimp money

…and they’ll be the same guys posting on here about their coulda, shoulda, woulda, ones that got away.

Diablo Dude

Bingo.

According to Mannheim, used car prices at the wholesale level jumped a surprising 4% over the last 2 weeks. But Im sure one of the usual "suspects" will dismiss this data point.

https://www.kcra.com/article/used-ca...again/42967688

Diablo Dude

Ive been trading the markets professionally since 1984. The reason that I dont place any value in the points that you've repeatedly tried to make is because youre constantly comparing "apples" to "oranges" in your narrative and youre always conflating.

You also dont seem to recognize that there is no other car in the GT space that comes close to offering the performance of a GT3 at this price point. Thats why dealers have been able to command an ADM. Period.

As for reversion to the mean, that sure didnt work out well for Long Term Capital Management.

Manifold

For the road, cars that compete with the current GT3 are all of the other current Porsche sports car, as well as the Porsche sports cars from prior generations. And there are plenty of cars from other brands that compete also. You can only go so fast on public roads, and the GT3 is not the fastest, smoothest, most planted, wildest, most confidence inspiring, loudest, quietest, most practical, least practical, attractive, exotic, etc. It's just a car among many cars, not a holy grail.

Addendum: for the track, I do think that Porsche GT cars (at MSRP) pretty much have no rivals, except maybe the turbo/S cars.