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By the time my 2024RS arrives they will be 3 deep at the dealership and they’ll throw in free floor mats at MSRP. Just like in 2010, when just 2 years prior an RS went 50% over sticker.
Then again, that can all be avoided with a couple more 1.7T bills for “the current thing” and zero % interest again soon. Better yet, CBDC fugazi’s with negative % interest 👍👍.
A more interesting bet in my view, even if it's still some time away, would be where will speccable 992.2 allocations be when the first batch is released.
I'm actually a pretty happy person.
I just find all of the ADM "nanny's" here talking out of their **** and trying to validate themselves and why they'll never own a 992 GT car.
As I said earlier, who cares about how others spend their money?
Why is this so important to them?
Actually, you couldnt be more wrong about me.
I'm even happier given that my 2023 GT3 Touring just came into the Port of Benicia early Friday morning.
I will be driving it on some of the greatest roads known to mankind soon!
Here's a pic that I took around 10:15 AM when I drove over to the port and they just started to move the cars out.
I think that people get confused by the CPI inflation number, because it's annualized rate of price change, not an actual price.
If we have significant inflation or deflation for a short period, it's not necessarily a big deal. For example, 12% inflation or deflation rate is a lot, but if it only lasts for a month, that's about a 1% price change, which people will hardly notice. If it lasts for a couple years, it's about a 25% change in prices over those two years, which is a lot.
So it's useful to look at the actual CPI (price index) over time.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
(using log scale for CPI axis, constant inflation rate plots as a straight line, with steeper slope indicating higher inflation rate)
Looking at the past 3 years, you can see about a 1% price dip at the beginning of the pandemic (deflation), then a big 16% rise in prices (about 8% annual inflation rate) for two years until last summer, then slowing of inflation since then.
Zooming out and going back to the recession associated with the real estate bubble, you can see sharp inflation followed by sharp deflation in 2008, and then the inflation rate was pretty steady and relatively low for about a decade until 2020, with a 16% increase in prices during that whole decade, which is as much price increase as we had in just 2 years during the pandemic, and you can see the sharp increase in inflation rate during the pandemic.
Zooming out further and going back to the 1940s, you can see that we had a sustained period of high inflation from the late 1960s until about 1982, followed by a lower inflation rate (for decades), but no deflation, so the price increases from the high inflation period became 'locked in' to prices. We didn't have another period of sustained high inflation until the pandemic. The question now is whether the lower inflation rate since this past summer will continue, or will prices go sideways for a while (0% inflation), or will we have some deflation to undo some of the price increases (which will restore some of the lost buying power of cash). Based on the Fed's stance, I don't think we're going back to a period of high inflation rate any time soon. We see home prices and used car prices and markups on new cars trending down, and we may have a significant recession in 2023, so I don't rule out the possibility of a period of CPI deflation.
I think that people get confused by the CPI inflation number, because it's annualized rate of price change, not an actual price.
No one involved in the financial markets is confused about what the CPI (or PCE) reflects.
And no one I know cares about where the CPI rate has been. That's a waste of time. The markets only care about where it is going and how soon it will get there.
For example, the CPI rose just 0.1% last month from October's level. If it were to continue to rise at a 0.1% monthly rate, year over year, the CPI would hit 4.1% in March and drop below 3% by May. - - - If inflation grows at a 0.2% month over month clip, the CPI would be under 4% by May.
Bottomline: In three short months, the CPI number could be below what the FED is projecting by end of the year.
Definitely something to keep in mind. It suggests that the Fed may be farther ahead in its battle against inflation than many investors give it credit for.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 12-26-2022 at 12:19 PM.
Atlanta GDPNow is currently indicating 3.7% GDP growth for Q4 as of 12/23
Quite a disparity between that number and the Blue Chip consensus that had spent much of Oct/Nov at 0.5% and is now at 1.0%
12-25-2022, 01:23 AM
