Diesel Cayenne and VW emission issue
01-31-2016, 04:00 PM
#466
Rennlist Member
And our fix is going to be very different from the 4 cylinder diesels, so they can't really be lumped into the same group. From the articles I've read, the 3.0l fix will be fairly easy and painless (knock on wood!). The "cheats" in this engine were supposedly legal, just not reported and pre-approved. Now, we know the EPA and CARB has to get their pound of flesh and can't just say, oh, OK, those are approved, so something will change. But hopefully, it'll just be a minor change so the regulators can show they've "done something" to force the evil corporation to bow to its will.
My comments are more focused on our CDs, not the whole VW spectrum. Yes, I know it's out there and by association, we have some value/reputation impact, but I would guess that, by and large, most people don't know Porsche and VW are part of the same conglomeration, so the value impact that VW owners are feeling won't be as stark for us (but I fully acknowledge that I could be completely wrong here!). Until I actually bought a Porsche, I didn't bother to learn the relationship between the companies, though I had a vague awareness that there was something there. I suspect most non-enthusiasts are the same, in that respect.
So, rather than use the 600K car number, our group is much, much smaller... for what that's worth.
That is between the government and VW and does not effect the owners. Right now the cars still pass the emissions tests for 2 reasons.
Firstly is that the tests have not been updated to cheat the cheat so they still pass the current tests.
Secondly no recall has actually been issued at this time so there is nothing to be fixed.
From the owner's perspective in regards to registering their car, that's all that matters. Everything else is noise until one of those two things change.
Neither will change until VW and CARB/EPA come to terms.
...
It's simple. Nothing has changed. Nothing.
Firstly is that the tests have not been updated to cheat the cheat so they still pass the current tests.
Secondly no recall has actually been issued at this time so there is nothing to be fixed.
From the owner's perspective in regards to registering their car, that's all that matters. Everything else is noise until one of those two things change.
Neither will change until VW and CARB/EPA come to terms.
...
It's simple. Nothing has changed. Nothing.
But as I said above, the EPA needs to look good on this, so they're going to mandate something here. They have to show they are doing something, even if its overall impact is nil (except to take a pound of flesh from the evil corporation... and us "rich" consumers who can afford Audis and Porsches, too, in this case). There will be mandates on this one and I bet the EPA will just basically adopt what CARB mandates.
https://www.ngvamerica.org/governmen...state-matters/
Nothing.Absolutely. We can make guesses about the future (from the final solution on), but they are simply educated at best. Until then, however, we know that there is a lot of internet based "experts" creating unfounded panic (as there is no information) driving the value on 100% legal vehicles.
The bubble in commodities though was fueled by central banks. Given credit cycles and the current glut in production combined with weak economic fundamentals globally we are at least a half decade from that possibility.
However, given the timing on the depreciation curve of early 958's combined with the diesel scandal AND cheap gas (a primary reason people considered them) they are going to take a bigger beating.
It's not like one can cite reliability (like 80's Mercedes diesels) as a justification for buying one since modern diesels are every bit as complex as a gas counterpart. So expensive gas is a pillar of propping up the argument for getting one. Not many people tow ALL THE TIME and any cayenne can tow something for a weekend warrior. It's a really long play at this point waiting for gas prices to rise.
However, given the timing on the depreciation curve of early 958's combined with the diesel scandal AND cheap gas (a primary reason people considered them) they are going to take a bigger beating.
It's not like one can cite reliability (like 80's Mercedes diesels) as a justification for buying one since modern diesels are every bit as complex as a gas counterpart. So expensive gas is a pillar of propping up the argument for getting one. Not many people tow ALL THE TIME and any cayenne can tow something for a weekend warrior. It's a really long play at this point waiting for gas prices to rise.
You are probably right on the perception part and fuel costs driving diesel sales. With diesel at par or less than regular gas (let alone premium), but still cheap, the fuel cost weight in overall consideration goes way down.
Note: I'm a strong believer in diesels. I don't think they're for everyone, but for anyone who will actually use the SUV as an SUV more than once or twice, it should be very high in the considerations when making the purchasing decision.
Last edited by skiahh; 01-31-2016 at 04:46 PM.
01-31-2016, 05:43 PM
#467
Rennlist Member
True, but this is the Cayenne forum, not the VAG forum and there aren't even 600K CDs in the world. I'd wager there aren't 600K CDs, Q5/Q7s and Touraegs in the world.
And our fix is going to be very different from the 4 cylinder diesels, so they can't really be lumped into the same group. From the articles I've read, the 3.0l fix will be fairly easy and painless (knock on wood!). The "cheats" in this engine were supposedly legal, just not reported and pre-approved. Now, we know the EPA and CARB has to get their pound of flesh and can't just say, oh, OK, those are approved, so something will change. But hopefully, it'll just be a minor change so the regulators can show they've "done something" to force the evil corporation to bow to its will.
My comments are more focused on our CDs, not the whole VW spectrum. Yes, I know it's out there and by association, we have some value/reputation impact, but I would guess that, by and large, most people don't know Porsche and VW are part of the same conglomeration, so the value impact that VW owners are feeling won't be as stark for us (but I fully acknowledge that I could be completely wrong here!). Until I actually bought a Porsche, I didn't bother to learn the relationship between the companies, though I had a vague awareness that there was something there. I suspect most non-enthusiasts are the same, in that respect.
So, rather than use the 600K car number, our group is much, much smaller... for what that's worth.
This.
13 states have legally adopted the CARB rules for their own states for OEMs. Two of them for aftermarket stuff, too. That means that you are correct, most states will not force you to do it, but since the 13 are all the west coast states (CA, OR, WA) and all the northeast states (except NH) have, that's a LOT of people and, I'd guess the majority of Cayenne owners.
But as I said above, the EPA needs to look good on this, so they're going to mandate something here. They have to show they are doing something, even if its overall impact is nil (except to take a pound of flesh from the evil corporation... and us "rich" consumers who can afford Audis and Porsches, too, in this case). There will be mandates on this one and I bet the EPA will just basically adopt what CARB mandates.
https://www.ngvamerica.org/governmen...state-matters/
Fixed it for you.
Diesels are inherently stronger engines so, in theory, should have better reliability and longevity. The modern complexity, though, does potentially add (subtract?) from that, though, and - quite literally - only time will tell!
Gas has reached under $1.00/gal in a few places which is unreal. Not complaining but definitely does damp down the demand for fuel economical vehicles. However I would think that the new mileage standards supposed to be in place after 2017-2020 make higher gas mileage vehicle more commonplace. VW however has made the TDI's a central part of their sales/marketing theory so am sure the $$ hit is significant. Was at an Audi dealer yesterday and TDI is like a bad word around there currently. No cars on the floor, no idea when they will get any, no idea what to do when someone comes in with one other than to offer less on the dollar for them in trade...due to uncertainty as many have suggested.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/...-in-reputation
You are probably right on the perception part and fuel costs driving diesel sales and also interest. With diesel at par or less than regular gas (let alone premium), but still cheap, the fuel cost weight in overall consideration goes way down.
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/01/...-even-further/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskat...gina-1.2840284
Note: I'm a strong believer in diesels. I don't think they're for everyone, but for anyone who will actually use the SUV as an SUV more than once or twice, it should be very high in the considerations when making the purchasing decision.
And our fix is going to be very different from the 4 cylinder diesels, so they can't really be lumped into the same group. From the articles I've read, the 3.0l fix will be fairly easy and painless (knock on wood!). The "cheats" in this engine were supposedly legal, just not reported and pre-approved. Now, we know the EPA and CARB has to get their pound of flesh and can't just say, oh, OK, those are approved, so something will change. But hopefully, it'll just be a minor change so the regulators can show they've "done something" to force the evil corporation to bow to its will.
My comments are more focused on our CDs, not the whole VW spectrum. Yes, I know it's out there and by association, we have some value/reputation impact, but I would guess that, by and large, most people don't know Porsche and VW are part of the same conglomeration, so the value impact that VW owners are feeling won't be as stark for us (but I fully acknowledge that I could be completely wrong here!). Until I actually bought a Porsche, I didn't bother to learn the relationship between the companies, though I had a vague awareness that there was something there. I suspect most non-enthusiasts are the same, in that respect.
So, rather than use the 600K car number, our group is much, much smaller... for what that's worth.
This.
13 states have legally adopted the CARB rules for their own states for OEMs. Two of them for aftermarket stuff, too. That means that you are correct, most states will not force you to do it, but since the 13 are all the west coast states (CA, OR, WA) and all the northeast states (except NH) have, that's a LOT of people and, I'd guess the majority of Cayenne owners.
But as I said above, the EPA needs to look good on this, so they're going to mandate something here. They have to show they are doing something, even if its overall impact is nil (except to take a pound of flesh from the evil corporation... and us "rich" consumers who can afford Audis and Porsches, too, in this case). There will be mandates on this one and I bet the EPA will just basically adopt what CARB mandates.
https://www.ngvamerica.org/governmen...state-matters/
Fixed it for you.
Diesels are inherently stronger engines so, in theory, should have better reliability and longevity. The modern complexity, though, does potentially add (subtract?) from that, though, and - quite literally - only time will tell!
Gas has reached under $1.00/gal in a few places which is unreal. Not complaining but definitely does damp down the demand for fuel economical vehicles. However I would think that the new mileage standards supposed to be in place after 2017-2020 make higher gas mileage vehicle more commonplace. VW however has made the TDI's a central part of their sales/marketing theory so am sure the $$ hit is significant. Was at an Audi dealer yesterday and TDI is like a bad word around there currently. No cars on the floor, no idea when they will get any, no idea what to do when someone comes in with one other than to offer less on the dollar for them in trade...due to uncertainty as many have suggested.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/...-in-reputation
You are probably right on the perception part and fuel costs driving diesel sales and also interest. With diesel at par or less than regular gas (let alone premium), but still cheap, the fuel cost weight in overall consideration goes way down.
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/01/...-even-further/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskat...gina-1.2840284
Note: I'm a strong believer in diesels. I don't think they're for everyone, but for anyone who will actually use the SUV as an SUV more than once or twice, it should be very high in the considerations when making the purchasing decision.
http://www.autoblog.com/2015/11/25/c...x-diesel-cars/
http://article.wn.com/view/2016/01/1...30000_US_cars/
However Porsche still is hopeful for a fix. Since the CD's are urea based yes it is correct that the fix is simpler. I think however it will involve both a software flash as well as new catalytic converter/exhaust system which may well likely affect mileage/performance and at some point would trigger a new emissions test to see if they meet the updated standards. Problem here as most have already said I think will be getting approval from CARB and EPA. Sounds like EPA will let CARB take the lead in the process if what has occurred up to this point continues.
http://www.trucktrend.com/news/1601-...ne-diesel-fix/
http://article.wn.com/view/2016/01/1...ftware_and_ne/
I am not an engineer so have no clue as to how the combo of the two will work and affect current performance of the CD's and what the new numbers will be. However one thing is still a known is that all of this is unknown and variable and until both the EPA and CARB accept and set new standards submitted by VW/Porsche/Audi. Some hit to the VW/Porsche image and unfortunately value of these cars will occur (probably less to the later due to numbers and brand prestige). But it is likely I agree that the EPA will have some say so in how this goes down and what sort of fix is implemented and recall done given the magnitude of perceived ineptitude and non-compliance over something they should have known about...as has already been mentioned they must be seen as doing something especially with the real possibility that many of the older 2.0L TDI's cannot be easily fixed/modified without loss to owners (seeking to trade) or VW (cost to modify). I see the Katrina arbiter has already been appointed by the govt...forget his name Fienstein??? Legally this will drag on for a bit more I think.
http://article.wn.com/view/2016/01/1...sel_emissions/
Last edited by mdrobc1213; 01-31-2016 at 05:58 PM.
01-31-2016, 05:58 PM
#468
Rennlist Member
I did include the entire population of VW corporate product to illustrate that tens of thousands of owners may be stuck with their cars. The Porsche/Audi 3.0L numbers I've seen are from 30,000 to 85,000.
01-31-2016, 06:20 PM
#469
Rennlist Member
The bubble in commodities though was fueled by central banks. Given credit cycles and the current glut in production combined with weak economic fundamentals globally we are at least a half decade from that possibility.
However, given the timing on the depreciation curve of early 958's combined with the diesel scandal AND cheap gas (a primary reason people considered them) they are going to take a bigger beating.
It's not like one can cite reliability (like 80's Mercedes diesels) as a justification for buying one since modern diesels are every bit as complex as a gas counterpart. So expensive gas is a pillar of propping up the argument for getting one. Not many people tow ALL THE TIME and any cayenne can tow something for a weekend warrior. It's a really long play at this point waiting for gas prices to rise.
However, given the timing on the depreciation curve of early 958's combined with the diesel scandal AND cheap gas (a primary reason people considered them) they are going to take a bigger beating.
It's not like one can cite reliability (like 80's Mercedes diesels) as a justification for buying one since modern diesels are every bit as complex as a gas counterpart. So expensive gas is a pillar of propping up the argument for getting one. Not many people tow ALL THE TIME and any cayenne can tow something for a weekend warrior. It's a really long play at this point waiting for gas prices to rise.
01-31-2016, 08:03 PM
#471
At this point, you can't make an economic argument supporting the diesel. It just moves the car better than the standard V6 and is dirt cheap to run. I like the bladder busting range and even when we don't use it for highway trips, a tank of fuel lasts us about a month. Certainly, any savings from the diesel can be wiped out by the abusive dealer oil change prices at the 5k service intervals. I just look forward to the Porsche loaners.
I have no choice now except to keep the car and drive it to 100k. It's fine; it's a great car and we've only had 1 problem so far (emissions related.. lol).
02-01-2016, 07:43 PM
#473
Rennlist Member
To the point of whether you are able to smog and register a CD in CA, my registration for my 2013 came up right after all the excrement collided with the whirling blade and I was able to get the CA smog inspection done and the tags without a problem. Seems like we are in limbo right now until the fix comes out and a recall is issued.
The bigger issue is compliance and enforcement once a fix is agreed by all parties, then it is less clear what documentation will be needed to prove the CD was actually repaired. PCNA has it listed by VIN for affected vehicles but not sure if VIN's will also be with CA emission testing (very doubtful), so it remains to be seen how the "fix" will be verified for future SMOG tests in CA - or any other state for that matter. I'm pretty sure CARB will not be requesting tailpipe tests as too many shops will have to spend money on equipment to make those tests and it defeats CARB's mid 90's initiatives in developing the ODBC II system, so we're back to the ODBC II and software.
And finally I would not be surprised at all to see, as part of the CARB/EPA settlement, the gov agencies require Porsche to meet a certain threshold percentage of all VIN's requiring emissions repair to be completed within a defined time period and if they do not, an assessed monetary penalty to Porsche (same principle applied to all 3L v6 diesels from Audi and VW) in an effort to compel compliance - the burden of compliance is on the manufacture, not the public. All this is pure speculation on my part, of course, but it is not hard to realize that compliance with the fix could be as big an issue as the fix itself.
02-02-2016, 10:53 AM
#475
02-02-2016, 01:59 PM
#477
That, unfortunately, won't matter to the question at hand. Even if they don't sniff the tail pipe they can still require that the recall be performed before registration. It's a national database that will have all the recalled VINs that the dealers will update when they perform the recall.
If the EPA doesn't mandate it I think you have a fighting chance in GA for them not requiring it. VA on the other hand could go either way and I think will probably line up behind CARB in the end
Hmmm... My company has an office in Atlanta and I have South GA family. Maybe I should get off my *** and move
02-02-2016, 04:35 PM
#479
Three Wheelin'
And you haven't done a DPF+DEF+CAT delete yet why?
That, unfortunately, won't matter to the question at hand. Even if they don't sniff the tail pipe they can still require that the recall be performed before registration. It's a national database that will have all the recalled VINs that the dealers will update when they perform the recall.
If the EPA doesn't mandate it I think you have a fighting chance in GA for them not requiring it. VA on the other hand could go either way and I think will probably line up behind CARB in the end
Hmmm... My company has an office in Atlanta and I have South GA family. Maybe I should get off my *** and move
That, unfortunately, won't matter to the question at hand. Even if they don't sniff the tail pipe they can still require that the recall be performed before registration. It's a national database that will have all the recalled VINs that the dealers will update when they perform the recall.
If the EPA doesn't mandate it I think you have a fighting chance in GA for them not requiring it. VA on the other hand could go either way and I think will probably line up behind CARB in the end
Hmmm... My company has an office in Atlanta and I have South GA family. Maybe I should get off my *** and move