A place to discuss all things ADM
09-21-2021, 01:49 PM
#556
Technical fans are not up to fundamental research or too lazy and they all eventually lose money.
As noted - take a chart book from five years ago and test your system and you will find your results are random walk. The shorter term your horizon the more random the results.
looking at past data that is the distillation of an endless number of unforeseeable events - deaths, price changes for commodities, interest rates, mergers - financial results and on and on is just to any rational person pointless.
I was a NASDAQ market maker for 25 years and we did not use charts - we looked for a way to find a spread that was to our advantage.
As noted - I have been in the business for 45 years and I operated my own brokerage firm for decades and now a RIA advisory firm for the pas20 plus years and I have never met someone who got rich day trading using charting - but I know many that lost fortunes. Also an MBA with a focus on equity investing.
Typically chartists are having fun when the market is strong and generally most stocks are rising so they sell this one for that one and that one rises and they say it was because of their charting prowess - until the market goes into a protracted period and then they lose a bunch of money and panic and sell and so on.
good luck - you will need it- some chartists can get lucky- but in 45 years I have not met one yet.
You will find that most of these Porsche’s are bought by guys that had equity shares or stock options for a company and over the years this company prospered and their shares appreciated. The guys with an interest in companies that failed are not buying a porsche.
No point in arguing- I wish you the best of luck and get Back to discussing Porsche’s and allocations and so on. Something that is actually fun.
As noted - take a chart book from five years ago and test your system and you will find your results are random walk. The shorter term your horizon the more random the results.
looking at past data that is the distillation of an endless number of unforeseeable events - deaths, price changes for commodities, interest rates, mergers - financial results and on and on is just to any rational person pointless.
I was a NASDAQ market maker for 25 years and we did not use charts - we looked for a way to find a spread that was to our advantage.
As noted - I have been in the business for 45 years and I operated my own brokerage firm for decades and now a RIA advisory firm for the pas20 plus years and I have never met someone who got rich day trading using charting - but I know many that lost fortunes. Also an MBA with a focus on equity investing.
Typically chartists are having fun when the market is strong and generally most stocks are rising so they sell this one for that one and that one rises and they say it was because of their charting prowess - until the market goes into a protracted period and then they lose a bunch of money and panic and sell and so on.
good luck - you will need it- some chartists can get lucky- but in 45 years I have not met one yet.
You will find that most of these Porsche’s are bought by guys that had equity shares or stock options for a company and over the years this company prospered and their shares appreciated. The guys with an interest in companies that failed are not buying a porsche.
No point in arguing- I wish you the best of luck and get Back to discussing Porsche’s and allocations and so on. Something that is actually fun.
09-21-2021, 05:00 PM
#557
Burning Brakes
Odd question (original subject, not about trading or stocks), but has anyone made a thread that keeps the data about dealers charging ADM, who they are, amounts they are charging, and what models they are charging them on?
I'm talking about the first post in the thread continually being updated as people add their information.
Just a thought. Saw it over in the C8 section of the old-fart corvette forums and wondered if someone had done that here.
I'm talking about the first post in the thread continually being updated as people add their information.
Just a thought. Saw it over in the C8 section of the old-fart corvette forums and wondered if someone had done that here.
09-21-2021, 05:46 PM
#558
Race Director
Originally Posted by maroli
As an aside, because some stupid analyst decided to inside trade in my firm, they imposed harsh restrictions on us trading stocks in our personal portfolio (I work in investment banking). We have 30 day minimum hold periods, etc etc. I guarantee you that all these policies that are designed to prevent us from day trading have improved the entire division's returns in the aggregate.
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maroli (09-21-2021)
09-21-2021, 09:17 PM
#559
I'd hesitate to call them pros, tbh. They can whip up a DCF/LBO analysis or do comparable companies analysis but their day job is advising on merger/acquisitions and financings, not asset management. For instance, I have a CFA which would make me more credentialed than most people moonlighting as 'pros' but I wouldn't describe myself as one. I find that the less qualified a person is, the more they loudly opine on finance/economics 
. I personally am mostly in EFTS; I'll occasionally make a sector or thematic pick (ie buying VFH near the bottom, because bank balance sheets were exceptionally strong and I felt rates would only go up from that point, which benefits banks' net interest margin), but I'm not a stock picker and most people i know who pick stocks aren't very good at it either.
. I personally am mostly in EFTS; I'll occasionally make a sector or thematic pick (ie buying VFH near the bottom, because bank balance sheets were exceptionally strong and I felt rates would only go up from that point, which benefits banks' net interest margin), but I'm not a stock picker and most people i know who pick stocks aren't very good at it either.
09-26-2021, 12:40 PM
#560
A place to discuss GT3 ADM stuff- which car is a better deal, & other value thoughts
In almost every thread a few topics keep coming up. So, I am starting this thread in hopes to never have to read about these topics again.
Topic 1) Paying an ADM is "stupid" use of money.
Sure it is, but buying any car over $75K in total is considered by most people a poor use of money. Additionally, it's just market value. I have only ever bought one new car at MSRP. The previous cars I bought were under MSRP and that was the same reason because the market value for those cars didn't dictate MSRP or higher. (Feel free to copy-paste these responses to save time.) From what I can tell is; Paying MSRP gets a response of "Good work Bro, that's what I'd pay", $25k ADM gets you a "not bad but I wouldn't do it", $50K gets you a "that's too much just wait and be patient", and above 50K gets the "F- the dealer this is stupid money and the car isn't worth it" and with the occasional "you could have bought a Ferrari for the money". This leads me to the next topic.
Topic 2) You could get a better car, Ferrari, McClaren, etc, for that money
I dislike this topic maybe the most because, although I understand it, it is completely useless to me. If I wanted to buy those cars and talk about those cars, I would be on FerrariChat or a similar forum. For me, there isn't another car that is comparable because I am interested in the Touring and every car that gets mentioned is an attention-grabbing car and not a Porsche. If I wanted attention I'd walk around with my zipper down and my buddy out.
Topic 3) Long term values
So many of the ADM conversations go down the what the value of the car is going to be. Maybe I haven't owned enough of these cars to think this way. I always assume the value will decrease precipitously and then after about 5-10 years it will flatten out. By then I have sold the car, lost some money, and enjoyed the drive. Really, if you are buying these as an investment, don't. If you can't afford to lose your ADM and $25K a year, don't buy these cars. If you don't understand why people are paying 50K over ADM, you forgot to understand why people buy these cars in the first place; the experience (on the track, and on the street), the ability to personalize it and make something you find beautiful, the desire to fill a dream, status (maybe the Ferrari would be a better choice :-)), and to **** an ex-wife off.
I apologize for the rant but these topics creep into almost every thread and the intent of the OP's thread gets lost. So, I hope you can come here (and redirect comments here) to get your fix on what's the value of a GT3, and let me get back to reading about lap times and how it's about the tires, bumper adornments, why the 991.2 is a better-looking car. Seriously, I enjoy those threads about 100K over the ADM conversation.
Topic 1) Paying an ADM is "stupid" use of money.
Sure it is, but buying any car over $75K in total is considered by most people a poor use of money. Additionally, it's just market value. I have only ever bought one new car at MSRP. The previous cars I bought were under MSRP and that was the same reason because the market value for those cars didn't dictate MSRP or higher. (Feel free to copy-paste these responses to save time.) From what I can tell is; Paying MSRP gets a response of "Good work Bro, that's what I'd pay", $25k ADM gets you a "not bad but I wouldn't do it", $50K gets you a "that's too much just wait and be patient", and above 50K gets the "F- the dealer this is stupid money and the car isn't worth it" and with the occasional "you could have bought a Ferrari for the money". This leads me to the next topic.
Topic 2) You could get a better car, Ferrari, McClaren, etc, for that money
I dislike this topic maybe the most because, although I understand it, it is completely useless to me. If I wanted to buy those cars and talk about those cars, I would be on FerrariChat or a similar forum. For me, there isn't another car that is comparable because I am interested in the Touring and every car that gets mentioned is an attention-grabbing car and not a Porsche. If I wanted attention I'd walk around with my zipper down and my buddy out.
Topic 3) Long term values
So many of the ADM conversations go down the what the value of the car is going to be. Maybe I haven't owned enough of these cars to think this way. I always assume the value will decrease precipitously and then after about 5-10 years it will flatten out. By then I have sold the car, lost some money, and enjoyed the drive. Really, if you are buying these as an investment, don't. If you can't afford to lose your ADM and $25K a year, don't buy these cars. If you don't understand why people are paying 50K over ADM, you forgot to understand why people buy these cars in the first place; the experience (on the track, and on the street), the ability to personalize it and make something you find beautiful, the desire to fill a dream, status (maybe the Ferrari would be a better choice :-)), and to **** an ex-wife off.
I apologize for the rant but these topics creep into almost every thread and the intent of the OP's thread gets lost. So, I hope you can come here (and redirect comments here) to get your fix on what's the value of a GT3, and let me get back to reading about lap times and how it's about the tires, bumper adornments, why the 991.2 is a better-looking car. Seriously, I enjoy those threads about 100K over the ADM conversation.
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10-02-2021, 08:06 PM
#561
Not sure if excessive you be the judge. Dropped by porsche of stevens creek - they want 30k ADM for winged GT3s and 50k for touring. They also prefer you trade a porsche in now. (first I’ve heard of that). I didn’t get a warm fuzzy feeling about being able to secure a car but he didn’t laugh me out of the dealership. (said I was a little late in this game - which I’m aware)
10-02-2021, 08:24 PM
#562
Rennlist Member
Also spoke with Stevens Creek. You can basically skip the waitlist and be on their next allotment if you trade in a 992 now. ADM seems reasonable but who knows if they actually get another set of allocations in a reasonable time frame?
10-02-2021, 11:07 PM
#563
it’s Steven’s creek, you actually have hope for them?
10-03-2021, 12:56 PM
#564
Rennlist Member
Very helpful thread. If anyone comes by a $25 ADM or less, sent me a DM. I know it a slim chance but that’s the budget 😁
10-03-2021, 01:18 PM
#565
"Mooty is correct Porsche can’t do a thing to them as they don’t do anything to the dealers that sale sub MSRP."
Rolex dealers often (at least in the past) discount from MSRP but it's rare they are allowed to sell above MSRP. I am not sure Porsche killed 911R flip at all.
Rolex dealers often (at least in the past) discount from MSRP but it's rare they are allowed to sell above MSRP. I am not sure Porsche killed 911R flip at all.
That's false though. They just do it differently. I was #3 on the list for a Daytona prior to the announcement of the stainless / ceramic version as of like 7 years ago. I was actually #1 for the ceramic version. I simply assumed the ceramic model was coming based on the Rose gold that was already available.
5 years after it released - I haven't got one in spite of my wife's childhood friend being a salesperson there and having bought 7 other watches from them.
My wife's friend told me - "we can do a package where you buy a gold watch at full price (which at the time we're still selling well below MSRP) in order to get the Daytona." Of course, I politely told her to **** off and didn't invite her to our wedding. Scratching backs goes both ways.
In Germany, Porsche has a tighter control over their franchises. So how do you get a popular car without them selling it to you above MSRP? You're either buddies with the GM or they bend you over and FYITA on your trade.
Different game. Same results.
But simultaneously,
It is funny to see a bunch of multi-millionaire capitalists whining about a dealer making a profit. What about the doctors among you that are charging whatever the market will bear because people need to protect their health and will pay anything to do it (as evidenced by the amount of medical spending the last year of someone's life)? Anyone bitching about that?
Porsche isn't a "need" so 99.99% of the population doesn't care about your crocodile tears about an ADM.
Here's the everyday middle-class / poor-man's (not my) response to people whining about a GT3 ADM. "**** those rich ******. Maybe if they paid their fair share in taxes and checked their privilege they'd stop whining about how much extra they pay for their fourth sports car!"
Last edited by destaccado; 10-03-2021 at 01:24 PM.
10-03-2021, 01:22 PM
#566
Race Car
I've got a little intel from a dealer I work with (and the Nick Murray vid)-
Every 8 weeks or so dealers will get 1, 2, or 3 GT3 allocations- for talking purposes assume roughly 2 allocations per 2 months- or 1 allocation per month.
These cars will be built 2021, 2022, and 2023 (like the 991.2's were built 2017, 2018, 2019)
One of my dealers told me they will get about 10 allocations for GT3s for 2022- which roughly matches the numbers above. Therefore if you aren't top 10 on the list right now you ain't getting one in 2022. Also they are keeping a list mostly of local Porsche owners / people that service their car at the dealer and shying away from the out-of-state folks willing to pay $30-$50k over.
Every 8 weeks or so dealers will get 1, 2, or 3 GT3 allocations- for talking purposes assume roughly 2 allocations per 2 months- or 1 allocation per month.
These cars will be built 2021, 2022, and 2023 (like the 991.2's were built 2017, 2018, 2019)
One of my dealers told me they will get about 10 allocations for GT3s for 2022- which roughly matches the numbers above. Therefore if you aren't top 10 on the list right now you ain't getting one in 2022. Also they are keeping a list mostly of local Porsche owners / people that service their car at the dealer and shying away from the out-of-state folks willing to pay $30-$50k over.
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Marantz2270 (10-03-2021)
10-03-2021, 07:15 PM
#567
Race Director
Originally Posted by destaccado
That's false though. They just do it differently. I was #3 on the list for a Daytona prior to the announcement of the stainless / ceramic version as of like 7 years ago. I was actually #1 for the ceramic version. I simply assumed the ceramic model was coming based on the Rose gold that was already available.
5 years after it released - I haven't got one in spite of my wife's childhood friend being a salesperson there and having bought 7 other watches from them.
My wife's friend told me - "we can do a package where you buy a gold watch at full price (which at the time we're still selling well below MSRP) in order to get the Daytona." Of course, I politely told her to **** off and didn't invite her to our wedding. Scratching backs goes both ways.
In Germany, Porsche has a tighter control over their franchises. So how do you get a popular car without them selling it to you above MSRP? You're either buddies with the GM or they bend you over and FYITA on your trade.
Different game. Same results.
But simultaneously,
It is funny to see a bunch of multi-millionaire capitalists whining about a dealer making a profit. What about the doctors among you that are charging whatever the market will bear because people need to protect their health and will pay anything to do it (as evidenced by the amount of medical spending the last year of someone's life)? Anyone bitching about that?
Porsche isn't a "need" so 99.99% of the population doesn't care about your crocodile tears about an ADM.
Here's the everyday middle-class / poor-man's (not my) response to people whining about a GT3 ADM. "**** those rich ******. Maybe if they paid their fair share in taxes and checked their privilege they'd stop whining about how much extra they pay for their fourth sports car!"
5 years after it released - I haven't got one in spite of my wife's childhood friend being a salesperson there and having bought 7 other watches from them.
My wife's friend told me - "we can do a package where you buy a gold watch at full price (which at the time we're still selling well below MSRP) in order to get the Daytona." Of course, I politely told her to **** off and didn't invite her to our wedding. Scratching backs goes both ways.
In Germany, Porsche has a tighter control over their franchises. So how do you get a popular car without them selling it to you above MSRP? You're either buddies with the GM or they bend you over and FYITA on your trade.
Different game. Same results.
But simultaneously,
It is funny to see a bunch of multi-millionaire capitalists whining about a dealer making a profit. What about the doctors among you that are charging whatever the market will bear because people need to protect their health and will pay anything to do it (as evidenced by the amount of medical spending the last year of someone's life)? Anyone bitching about that?
Porsche isn't a "need" so 99.99% of the population doesn't care about your crocodile tears about an ADM.
Here's the everyday middle-class / poor-man's (not my) response to people whining about a GT3 ADM. "**** those rich ******. Maybe if they paid their fair share in taxes and checked their privilege they'd stop whining about how much extra they pay for their fourth sports car!"
Take for example surgeons charging PPO patients with OON (out of network benefits) at 10x Medicare rates. This is a good analogy to ADM, it's whatever price that patient and the market will bear, but in this case uncorrelated to the suggested price of that product (surgery or car). This is while steering patients to their self-owned surgery centers so they can collect both facility and professional fees AND then often also take a cut of the hardware they implant, AND often the braces they give the patient after procedures. You can $100k a $9k procedure and work only a few days/week and make 7-figure income. This is ADM, in medicine. And Only in American medicine does this happen... but hey, this is where our regulation-free system has taken us. And this is in all industries starting with investment banking on down.
So, the way I see it Dealer ADM is the least offensive way the average Joe is getting butt-raped daily. (Apologies for potentially outing some of the Rennlist physician pricing strategies).
You want unbridled capitalism?.. this is what it looks like, and examples like this are behind every curtain, but carefully and expertly hidden to the casual observer. But maximization of profit in a regulation-free environment means maximum human inegenuity at work trying to extract maximum profit from the next man.
Last edited by CAlexio; 10-03-2021 at 08:15 PM.
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10-03-2021, 08:45 PM
#568
I've got a little intel from a dealer I work with (and the Nick Murray vid)-
Every 8 weeks or so dealers will get 1, 2, or 3 GT3 allocations- for talking purposes assume roughly 2 allocations per 2 months- or 1 allocation per month.
These cars will be built 2021, 2022, and 2023 (like the 991.2's were built 2017, 2018, 2019)
One of my dealers told me they will get about 10 allocations for GT3s for 2022- which roughly matches the numbers above. Therefore if you aren't top 10 on the list right now you ain't getting one in 2022. Also they are keeping a list mostly of local Porsche owners / people that service their car at the dealer and shying away from the out-of-state folks willing to pay $30-$50k over.
Every 8 weeks or so dealers will get 1, 2, or 3 GT3 allocations- for talking purposes assume roughly 2 allocations per 2 months- or 1 allocation per month.
These cars will be built 2021, 2022, and 2023 (like the 991.2's were built 2017, 2018, 2019)
One of my dealers told me they will get about 10 allocations for GT3s for 2022- which roughly matches the numbers above. Therefore if you aren't top 10 on the list right now you ain't getting one in 2022. Also they are keeping a list mostly of local Porsche owners / people that service their car at the dealer and shying away from the out-of-state folks willing to pay $30-$50k over.
It's funny, I saw here on another thread the assertion that GT3s have been fully allocated in the US for the year, and not to expect any allocations to come free for the remainder of 2021. I found this odd, as my dealer told me they would have an update on allocations in October and that they would know then if they have any allocations to distribute. What you just laid out lines up with the possibility that dealers might receive some GT allocations in Q4.
10-03-2021, 09:01 PM
#569
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Marantz2270 (10-03-2021)
10-03-2021, 09:21 PM
#570
Porsche of Fremont - 40k markup for either GT3. No other requirements. List is full.
Im starting to seriously consider the GTS. Or maybe just invest in therapy so I can be happy with the cars I have 🤣
Im starting to seriously consider the GTS. Or maybe just invest in therapy so I can be happy with the cars I have 🤣
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