A place to discuss all things ADM
#5551
The following 4 users liked this post by Peruna:
#5552
Burning Brakes
![Default](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
Friend of mine is a GM at a dealership in another state and reached out to me a few weeks ago offering me a touring allocation (no PTS) with a maximum 50K ADM (could be less if market conditions deteriorate in the next 3-4 months when the car arrives). Told me I don't have to put a deposit up and to submit my build, and no hard feelings if I don't wind up taking it when it arrives. The day after my build locked the price increase was announced. Received confirmation that my allocation is not subject to the price increase so now I am tempted to take the car, especially if the ADM goes down. However, I really want PTS and now have to decide if it is worth sacrificing PTS (no guarantee I will get a PTS allocation at a later date) for a sure thing. Is a 50K ADM based on the old MSRP a good deal for a non PTS touring in the current environment?
The following 2 users liked this post by RUF RS:
Diablo Dude (04-06-2023),
Peruna (04-06-2023)
#5553
![Default](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
What I get is that you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to Porsche GT cars, let alone the markets.
With all of the "obvious" bad news that you recite the S&P is still at 4100 and the NDX recently traded 13,200 this week.
When I posted a chart of the NDX two weeks ago, you dismissed it and laughed at the UPTREND that it was in. I hope you dont trade the financial markets because you'd be horrible at it.
Even more importantly ADM's are still robust for the few GT allocations left. Roughly 2,900 992 GT3's were built for the U.S. during this production cycle. For most, this car is not viewed as a mass-produced sports car, especially with the ICE on "Death Row".
I've noticed that people repeatedly touting your narrative are terribly myopic. You enjoy talking about how bad things are in the economy and the lack of demand for a Porsche GT car. And yet, there is never any recognition of the "limited" supply of these vehicles. Again, ADM's continue to be fairly robust. But for some reason you never ask yourself why that is in April of 2023.
Most people that I know that are Porsche owners have daily equity swings in their brokerage account of > $50,000 that they dont even bat an eye at.
I think you'd be surprised what the average liquid net worth of a Porsche GT owner is.
It's literally comical to think that the demographics of the potential Porsche customer that is most interested in purchasing this car are "reaching" for it.
The ADM's at this point of the severely limited production cycle are not a barrier to buying this car for the people that it was designed to attract.
The fact that we are still seeing $50,000 to $70,000 ADM's should tell you that.
Porsche just increased the base MSRP by $13,000 did they not?
There are plenty of tech workers out there with jobs and stock-options that are still deep in the money for a car that is near the end of its production cycle.
You sound terribly bitter given your repeated narrative here. Why you continue to "care" about how much OTHER people pay for a GT car is pretty strange.
Everyone here can clearly see that.
You dont sound very happy.
With all of the "obvious" bad news that you recite the S&P is still at 4100 and the NDX recently traded 13,200 this week.
When I posted a chart of the NDX two weeks ago, you dismissed it and laughed at the UPTREND that it was in. I hope you dont trade the financial markets because you'd be horrible at it.
Even more importantly ADM's are still robust for the few GT allocations left. Roughly 2,900 992 GT3's were built for the U.S. during this production cycle. For most, this car is not viewed as a mass-produced sports car, especially with the ICE on "Death Row".
I've noticed that people repeatedly touting your narrative are terribly myopic. You enjoy talking about how bad things are in the economy and the lack of demand for a Porsche GT car. And yet, there is never any recognition of the "limited" supply of these vehicles. Again, ADM's continue to be fairly robust. But for some reason you never ask yourself why that is in April of 2023.
Most people that I know that are Porsche owners have daily equity swings in their brokerage account of > $50,000 that they dont even bat an eye at.
I think you'd be surprised what the average liquid net worth of a Porsche GT owner is.
It's literally comical to think that the demographics of the potential Porsche customer that is most interested in purchasing this car are "reaching" for it.
The ADM's at this point of the severely limited production cycle are not a barrier to buying this car for the people that it was designed to attract.
The fact that we are still seeing $50,000 to $70,000 ADM's should tell you that.
Porsche just increased the base MSRP by $13,000 did they not?
There are plenty of tech workers out there with jobs and stock-options that are still deep in the money for a car that is near the end of its production cycle.
You sound terribly bitter given your repeated narrative here. Why you continue to "care" about how much OTHER people pay for a GT car is pretty strange.
Everyone here can clearly see that.
You dont sound very happy.
Haha, Double Ds, maybe I should call you Double As, because you are so small (minded) to not see that there are significant hazards ahead. Instead of addressing the points that I raise as to why there are rough waters ahead, you keep pointing to the equity markets. Why on earth would you keep pointing solely to dumb money (aka, the equity markets), the same markets that caused meme stocks like GameStop to exist? You should give at least some weight to what smart money, aka the bond markets, have been saying. The equity markets are living in lala land right now. In light of your ability to disregard high levels of risk, there's a company called Silicon Valley Bank that is looking for someone like you to become their Risk Manager. Match made in heaven. Oops, sorry, they are gone...guess they should have paid more attention to risks related to rapidly rising interest rates...
I don't enjoy talking about the bad state of the economy, but interesting that you finally acknowledge that there are some bad things going on in the economy. I'm a realist. And, the reality is that there are significant risks to the economy right now. Tying it to the GT3 market, if economic conditions deteriorate, no question that the GT3 market will be affected. Some cars are moving on the resale market, which is normal for the spring selling season, but there are still alot of cars out there languishing on the resale market. Prices can inflate quickly during times of excess like the last few years but it often takes time for price declines to occur. Like I said before, I think later this year will be the time frame, which coincides with when the full effect of interest rates should begin affecting the economy. Pimco has done an analysis of the effects of central banks hiking interest rates during the last 70 years, and their conclusion is that it normally takes 6-8 quarters after the start of interest rate hikes to reach the point of material economic deterioration. The Fed started hiking in March 2022, so we are getting close to that time frame.
Finally, I'm not bitter, not at all. I actually smile when I see posts like yours where you speak out of your ***, making broad sweeping statements about my trading abilities instead of making intelligent counter-arguments ("well, Boltsfan, I actually think a soft landing is still possible because of [fill in the blank]"). Just because I disagree with the circlejerk of a subgroup here who only thinks prices go one way causes me to be bitter? Nah, I'm good.
#5554
![Default](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
If you're so smart, what do you think? Or, are you good with marking remarks from the sidelines, eating your popcorn?
#5555
Race Car
![Default](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
The March Unemployment Report was just announced this morning with 236,000 new jobs created, a 0.3% increase in hourly wages, and an unemployment rate of 3.5%
A "horrible" report.
Lots of "gloom and doom"
Moreover, wealthy people have no money for Porsche GT cars. Sad really.
A "horrible" report.
Lots of "gloom and doom"
Moreover, wealthy people have no money for Porsche GT cars. Sad really.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 04-07-2023 at 12:50 PM.
The following users liked this post:
AlexCeres (04-08-2023)
The following users liked this post:
IRunalot (04-07-2023)
#5557
Rennlist Member
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
Posts: 13,286
Received 4,472 Likes
on
2,547 Posts
![Default](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
The pandemic and the response to it have been unprecedented in our lifetimes, so predictions about timing of a recession are more difficult. But the vast majority of economic/financial/investing 'experts' I follow are expecting a substantial recession to be coming within the next year, and that's where I've placed my bets.
I did buy three lightly used 911s in the past six months at what I thought was a good price (total cost of more than a half million dollars), but I couldn't stomach the idea of paying tens of thousands over MSRP for a 992.1 GT3 when I'm pretty much assured of getting a 992.2 GT3 at MSRP. For me, the 992 GT3 is just not worth $240k+, but it's worth MSRP (less than $200k for my build).
I did buy three lightly used 911s in the past six months at what I thought was a good price (total cost of more than a half million dollars), but I couldn't stomach the idea of paying tens of thousands over MSRP for a 992.1 GT3 when I'm pretty much assured of getting a 992.2 GT3 at MSRP. For me, the 992 GT3 is just not worth $240k+, but it's worth MSRP (less than $200k for my build).
The following users liked this post:
IRunalot (04-07-2023)
#5558
![Default](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
The pandemic and the response to it have been unprecedented in our lifetimes, so predictions about timing of a recession are more difficult. But the vast majority of economic/financial/investing 'experts' I follow are expecting a substantial recession to be coming within the next year, and that's where I've placed my bets.
I did buy three lightly used 911s in the past six months at what I thought was a good price (total cost of more than a half million dollars), but I couldn't stomach the idea of paying tens of thousands over MSRP for a 992.1 GT3 when I'm pretty much assured of getting a 992.2 GT3 at MSRP. For me, the 992 GT3 is just not worth $240k+, but it's worth MSRP (less than $200k for my build).
I did buy three lightly used 911s in the past six months at what I thought was a good price (total cost of more than a half million dollars), but I couldn't stomach the idea of paying tens of thousands over MSRP for a 992.1 GT3 when I'm pretty much assured of getting a 992.2 GT3 at MSRP. For me, the 992 GT3 is just not worth $240k+, but it's worth MSRP (less than $200k for my build).
Since buckets and PCCB's aren't being configured into anything non-GT until who knows when, this no doubt will also affect the market and individual car prices.
#5559
Rennlist Member
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
Posts: 13,286
Received 4,472 Likes
on
2,547 Posts
![Default](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
My 992's MSRP is 226k NON PTS, worth it to me even at if at a very small ADM. With tax 1st year's insurance, registration and miscellaneous fees, even at MSRP I'm well over 240K+. My same build now would be 240K+ MSRP, given the increase in prices and my color is discontinued so I'd have to go PTS for it from my understanding of what my SA and the GM believe.
Since buckets and PCCB's aren't being configured into anything non-GT until who knows when, this no doubt will also affect the market and individual car prices.
Since buckets and PCCB's aren't being configured into anything non-GT until who knows when, this no doubt will also affect the market and individual car prices.
As a track car, I wound up getting a 2021 992 TTS at the 2021 MSRP price, which is $27k less than the current MSRP price. The cost is less than the market price for a 992 GT3, and it's a faster car with more road usability. But I still want a 992 GT3 when I can get an MSRP allocation, which is perhaps 1-2 years away (meanwhile, will track the 991.1 GT3). One TTS and one GT3 seems like a good combo for track cars which can be driven on the road. For road-only use, I still prefer the 991 and 997 cars over any 992, but I understand that lots of people like the 992 cars. In the end, it's all pretty subjective.
Last edited by Manifold; 04-07-2023 at 11:09 AM.
The following users liked this post:
mrjbb7 (04-07-2023)
#5560
![Default](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
I get that. We all have to decide what a particular car is worth to us, and (hopefully) few of us are stretching to buy these cars to the point where tens of thousands of ADM would actually impact our financial position.
As a track car, I wound up getting a 2021 992 TTS at the 2021 MSRP price, which is $27k less than the current MSRP price. The cost is less than the market price for a 992 GT3, and it's a faster car with more road usability. But I still want a 992 GT3 when I can get an MSRP allocation, which is perhaps 1-2 years away (meanwhile, will track the 991.1 GT3). One TTS and one GT3 seems like a good combo for track cars which can be driven on the road. For road-only use, I still prefer the 991 and 997 cars over any 992, but I understand that lots of people like the 992 cars. In the end, it's all pretty subjective.
As a track car, I wound up getting a 2021 992 TTS at the 2021 MSRP price, which is $27k less than the current MSRP price. The cost is less than the market price for a 992 GT3, and it's a faster car with more road usability. But I still want a 992 GT3 when I can get an MSRP allocation, which is perhaps 1-2 years away (meanwhile, will track the 991.1 GT3). One TTS and one GT3 seems like a good combo for track cars which can be driven on the road. For road-only use, I still prefer the 991 and 997 cars over any 992, but I understand that lots of people like the 992 cars. In the end, it's all pretty subjective.
Fingers crossed for you to get your 992 GT3 at MSRP, it definitely is possible and I feel more likely to happen than a year ago.
Last edited by mrjbb7; 04-07-2023 at 11:21 AM.
The following users liked this post:
Manifold (04-07-2023)
#5561
Race Car
#5562
Racer
#5563
![Default](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
Excuse me, do you know me? If so, how long have I been a "doom and gloom" guy? Oh yeah, you don't know. Far from multiple years of "calling it." I started to become a little cautious when the Fed did an about face on "transitory inflation" and then needed to play catch-up. I became more cautious when we experienced steep rate hikes in a short period of time. It hit yellow alert when banks like SVB and Signature failed. So, yeah, I'm officially in the doom and gloom camp.
If you're so smart, what do you think? Or, are you good with marking remarks from the sidelines, eating your popcorn?
If you're so smart, what do you think? Or, are you good with marking remarks from the sidelines, eating your popcorn?
Edit: As someone who works in the financial markets, I find it interesting when GT3 prospective buyers will sit on the sidelines for literally years waiting to save $20-40k on these cars (while MSRP continues to tick up into those levels) expecting ADMs to come down. What is $20-40k over the course of multiple years on a ~$225k car? As an actual owner, I can tell you it's worth those dollars to be driving one of these. For what it's worth, I paid MSRP but can easily understand paying an ADM for this car.
Last edited by PTS; 04-07-2023 at 01:01 PM.
The following 3 users liked this post by PTS:
#5564
Rennlist Member
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
Posts: 13,286
Received 4,472 Likes
on
2,547 Posts
![Default](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
I'm not on the sidelines, I'm in my 992 GT3 just clicking past the 4k mile mark. I wasn't referencing you directly in my comment, either. Keep being cautious though, you'll still be in the same place you are now in the future, GT3-less.
Edit: As someone who works in the financial markets, I find it interesting when GT3 prospective buyers will sit on the sidelines for literally years waiting to save $20-40k on these cars expecting ADMs to come down. What is $20-40k over the course of multiple years on a ~$225k car? As an actual owner, I can tell you it's worth those dollars to be driving one of these. For what it's worth, I paid MSRP but can easily understand paying an ADM for this car.
Edit: As someone who works in the financial markets, I find it interesting when GT3 prospective buyers will sit on the sidelines for literally years waiting to save $20-40k on these cars expecting ADMs to come down. What is $20-40k over the course of multiple years on a ~$225k car? As an actual owner, I can tell you it's worth those dollars to be driving one of these. For what it's worth, I paid MSRP but can easily understand paying an ADM for this car.
Last edited by Manifold; 04-07-2023 at 01:06 PM.