Manhattan_trout

To paraphrase a great short seller, the reality is “the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent”…

This was interesting to read about crypto bros and Lamborghini purchases. Reality is even though crypto has crashed, so much wealth was created that Lambo dealers are still feeling good:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...r?srnd=premium

I’ve been skeptical myself of $100k ADMs on 992 GT3s, but admittedly the selling prices on BAT still reflect $100k premiums even with the stock market correction, bitcoin crash, much higher interest rates etc.

Porsche really knocked the ball out of the park with the 992 GT3 - they could’ve priced it at 225k base and 250k with options with no impact to demand. Remarkable.

Maverick787

‘They will keep piling up, as flippers many will get burned and what to jump ship. Housing, cars, and watches all collected cash with the demand. May daughter 26 was shopping for a house, and the over asking was insane, and I told her to wait she reluctantly did ………she bought her first house yesterday at appraised value and better location and house vs when she was going to over pay.

Ascend

Unless you are paying cash, you are actually paying more in monthly now compared to paying at peak price with sub 3 percent mortgage rate.

Targa32

Here is a detailed recent discussion of GT3 prices and recent shift in prices —

WenigerAberBeser

bingo!

a $1m house at 2.7% is the same monthly and total cost of ownership of 30 years as a $750k house at 5.2%.

the market has not dropped 25% in most markets…

there are still cheap auto rates out there (under 3%) but they’ve been rising steadily, cutting margin for flippers is the silver lining.

mnawa

I don’t understand the logic behind this argument. Who keeps a home for 30 years? Shouldn’t the outcome be on the initial purchase price and the terminal price?

Maverick787

5% rate she got is cheaper than the crazy price she would have paid 6 months ago, all worked out and the house has room to appreciate vs the others are dropping below what they paid under water.

maroli

It's up to 120 used cars on Autotrader, which is the highest number I've seen. What's nice to see is that the lowest priced car at $259k is a gentleman who's an RL'er I believe and has cross posted on the site.

Maverick787

Well one can argue if one wants a car, you’re one good negotiation away from a car. At some point they will bend as inventory piles, but many don’t believe the same as homes are piling up un-sold while some markets are better than others. There’s an old saying people want what they can’t have, and don’t want what everyone can get. 😎

WenigerAberBeser

yes you’re right but since I don’t know future home values and future interest rates I cannot predict

but the point I made still remains, buying a home for 10% less (for example) isnt something to automatically celebrate when the cost of money has increased 200%…

Maverick787

Your correct, and all examples will cut differently. In my little ones case even with the higher interest rate her mortgage is actually cheaper than the the house that was priced over with the lower rate. My coaching for her was really around don’t buy just because you can in a bad market, and now she’s jumping for joy …….more house and better area for less on the monthly. She an outlier but she did well, and she’s proud of herself at 26. She will be out of that house in 5-6 years, and not much worry about being under water.

Ascend

Exactly, house price havent dropped by 25 percent or so, which should equal to rise in interest rate. So effectively, you are paying more for a house. I guess one can argue that you enter at lower price with higher rate then refi later but price hasnt dropped drastically to even justify that.

Ascend

She has a good dad

Azzurri GT3

I started look for a home in May when the market was on fire, everything that was 'good' in the area I wanted would sell in a weekend for easily 20-50k over asking.

I said **** and just held off, now I'm getting all these zillow price drop notices and new homes, that if this was 2 or so month ago they wouldn't have lasted a weeked, and now they're just sitting.

Ascend

Hows your market doing? I am seeing price drop of effectively 5 percent listed, but after transaction is done, its actually 10 percent or so. Will hold my breath for a while.