Now, put that same executives against the wall and grill them hard. I bet you will quickly find out that the research for this hybrid engine never would have started until the old ICE companies suddenly found themselves being outclassed by BEV designs. After-all, go back ten years and everyone in the auto industry kept referring to electric design as "Golf-Carts" and that included the already existing hybrids.

Think about it, for years (decades) there were claims of 100 miles to the gallon yet we never saw anything. If it possible than the answer was the auto industry did not see the need to make one. Personally, I don't think it was possible, but if it was the industry was not trying.

Now 2L/100KM = 114 miles per gallon ICE is suddenly coming out, sounds like until competition was started by electric cars that were "forced" down people throats the cars companies were sitting on their asses. Amazing what a little competition will "force" the auto companies to do, why did they not do this research to the point of producing better ICEs years ago.

Earl Colby Pottinger (Tesla, Taycan, Bollinger, Rivian and other BEVs fan)

 

And before gas stations were installed everywhere I bet a number of horse owners would say, "I don't want to be constrained to a network of roads where gasoline is available.".

Earl Colby Pottinger (Tesla, Taycan, Bollinger, Rivian and other BEVs fan)

 

I think you are re-enforcing Dave's point. You get the performance from the added power from battery side of your car, a pure hybrid ICE without the battery storage will not have the power to give you the driver feel you want.

Earl Colby Pottinger (Tesla, Taycan, Bollinger, Rivian and other BEVs fan)

PS. My main beef with hybrid designs is the small range of the electric only side of present cars. 50 miles should work for most people, a 100 mile battery in a plug-in hybrid would cover 95% of all people needs all the time.

 

I find it harlious - everyone I know who drives a hybrid wants "just a little more all battery" range so they don't have to use the gas motor. Then why did you get one? In case I need to drive further than the battery. How often do you do that? Not very often (or at all), but I like to know I can.

Basically if you have a 200+ mile BEV and fast charging - I'll still argue hybrids are un-necessary - extra complexity and cost - and unless they are plug-in still not zero emission - and by the time they are plug-in just put in enough battery to go some distance and remove the unused gas motor.

Chevy had to release a Volt software update so that the gas motor would run every 6 months because the gasoline in the tank was going bad and causing warranty issues - people were driving their Volt's and NEVER using the gasoline motor - that tells you how much the ICE motor in a hybrid is necessary, Chevy updated it's entire fleet to un-nessarily run the motor to avoid warranty claims caused by bad gasoline.

200+ mile BEVs make hybrids largely un-necessary - if you don't like fast charging just keep your ICE for the 7 days a year you need to drive more than 200 miles…it's way cheaper than including an unused gasoline motor in a car that will never use it.

https://www.autoblog.com/2010/09/13/...enance-mode-w/

 

I own the Panamera hybrid and my wife has a Tesla Model S P100D (as well as a Tesla Roadster). I'm well familiar with both modes of travel. Since we started out with less than 200 miles of range in the Roadster and live in the wilds of the MidWest, range anxiety was a given in 2009. One couldn't plan any sort of countryside jaunt without some fear and trepidation about making it all the way home. That experience was implanted and is difficult to expunge from my psyche. When one of our daughters was living 100 miles away and there were no convenient charging options interspersed on the route, visiting her in the Roadster was plainly not something to do. Even when my wife bought her 2012 Tesla Model S P85, it didn't have enough range margin to go to and from daughter's house. Only in the very recent past has it been possible to find a Tesla SuperCharger that could bridge gap. So, ... when visiting the daughter a hybrid made all sorts of sense, especially in the Winter when range goes way down.

So, we are about to become a 2-BEV household with a Taycan taking the place of the Panamera hybrid. It will be fascinating to observe whether a Thanksgiving trip of ~285 miles one-way will be pleasurable in a BEV (probably the Tesla) or whether some sort of ICE will need to be rented for the trip. Early adopters have all sorts of 1st-world problems to solve

 

thanks for that perspective @W8MM I agree with your analysis - I'm guessing it will "probably be the Tesla" is due to better fast charging choices at this point in time for it vs. the Taycan (I'm think the greater range of the Tesla isn't the issue, it's the charging).

 

Tesla has better range (gives more flexibility about charging options) and has better charging coverage (locations and number of stalls). It's a 2fer.

 

Yup, BEV is not for everyone. That's one thing I wish the typical "Teslavangelist" would get through their head. I don't know what it is that makes these people so....sanctimonious I guess would be the right word, but it pisses me off. I think many of them just have little to know knowledge of cars and the Tesla is the first one they care about, so they go on espousing it to be the greatest thing ever. Well, it turns out, no, they aren't and moreover ANY BEV has a million cases where it doesn't make sense for someone. Not everyone lives where they can charge at night, not everyone lives in a situation where backup charging is within reach or practical, not everyone has a short commute.

If you live in a situation where it does make sense, a BEV is a fantastic alternative to your daily commuter. But if you live in an apartment and have a 45 mile each way commute, not so much. And in a city like Houston, that is a VERY common case.

 

The Volt has always had two "maintenance modes". The first is "Engine Maintenance Mode". If the ICE hasn't run for six weeks, on the next drive EMM will run it for a bit to keep it lubed and limbered up. The car also keeps track of when and how much fuel you put into the tank. If the average age of the fuel is over a year, it runs "Fuel Maintenance Mode" (FMM) and forces you to burn off old gas and add new. Folks that don't use the ICE much will typically only keep 2-3 gallons of gas in the tank so that when FMM rolls around, they don't have to burn off very much. But - if you need to take a road trip, just fill the tank and off you go.

The Gen 1 Volt had an EV range of about 35-38 EPA miles. The Gen 2 (2016-onward) is about 53 EPA miles. If one drills into some of the graphs at voltstats.net, and compare various years, it is easy to see that mid-30s miles are probably not enough, but 53 is very reasonable. In fact, our Gen 2 Volt was running nearly 100% EV for its first 3.5 years for my wifes commute and around town use. (Our Volt, "whiz Volt", is #9 on the voltstats Hall of Fame. Was #8 for a while.) Unfortunately as of last year, my wifes commute swelled to about 60 miles round-trip, and a few months ago lost the ability to charge at work. So now she burns a couple tenths of a gallon each day.

Funny thing is that my wife actually likes the Volt better than my Model 3 - because she still likes the security blanket of having the ICE available.

If some auto maker were to poll me on the optimum range for a PHEV, I'd probably say 75 EPA miles. That would let me do the SFO airport run via freeways on a single charge. I can actually do it now if I take surface streets (e.g., Foothill Expressway, Alameda de las Pulgas, El Camino Real, etc.) and keep the speed to 35-40 mph or so. I've actually done over 80 miles on one charge - with very careful driving. But since buying the Model 3, I haven't bothered with such things anymore.

 

This thread has been around forever and now that the Taycan is released, the debates about technical merits of Porsche vs. Tesla will continue to rage on. While technology will continue to move forward and BEV’s will have a larger role, a reality check of what consumers are actually buying needs to be part of the discussion.

First let’s take a step back and look at the US EV market as it sits today in 2019. Overall it’s sitting somewhere around 2.2%. If you pull PHEV’s out the actual BEV marketshare is about 1.8%. What is most interesting are the indicators that total 2019 EV sales in the US may not reach 2018 levels. With 4 months of sales to report before YE nothing is set in stone but it’s not looking good. That means EV’s are seeing a plateau in demand. Looking at the EV demand by state one sees that 95% of all EV’s are being sold in just 5 states, NY, FL,TX, WA, & CA. To no one’s surprise California makes up 55% of all EV sales. The point being is EV growth is going to be a slow climb with perhaps a decade to get to even a 5% market share. There is no 30 or 40% Year over year growth pattern to be seen on the horizon.

Now let’s look at Tesla, the company. Financially it’s a train wreck. Tesla currently has about $13 Billion in debt, has only had a couple of profitable quarters in its entire existence, and YTD is still losing money. The current model portfolio holds roughly about a 78 % market share across all BEV’s with the M3 unquestionably a hit and volume leader. But in looking at the YTD US sales there is concern. The Model S has a current sales run rate that’s roughly 78% of what it was 2 years ago. But in order to boost sales, there have been dramatic prices cuts, yet sales volume is still down. The Model X sales run rate is roughly about 82% from 2 years ago. If one looks at the combined E-Tron and I-Pace sales YTD they tend to equal the loss in Model X volume. Competition is not good for Tesla growth and market share. Now let’s look at M3 compared to 2018. With 4 months to go it’s a push if the Model 3 will meet the 146,000 units sold in 2018. The point here is like the rest of the EV market the M3 is reaching a sales plateau. As Tesla is viewed and valued as a technology growth company, not an automobile company, this is very bad news from a finance perspective. Growth companies that stop growing get badly punished in the market. See the former stock darling Netflix today vs. 6 months ago.

If one starts looking at the demographics of the current BEV buyers, there is no question they fall into upper tiers of household income. That BEV is most likely the 3rd or 4th vehicle in the family fleet. At this time BEV’s are not for the lunch box buyer, they are still the province of the wealthy. The everyday guy is buying a $25K or less ICE cars that get 35-40 MPG and paying about $2.60 a gallon for gas. A $50K BEV makes no economic sense to that buyer.

Yet, ICE manufactures are piling into the BEV space with multiple products starting in 2020 and beyond. Some of these will be duds but there will be 1 or 2 hits as well. Personally, by 2021 I think we will see a glut of BEV’s in the marketplace with not enough buyers. ICE manufactures will be grumbling that BEV’s are still money losing dogs but they will be gratefull for their ICE products that will keep producing profits and allow them to keep moving forward with Gen 2 & 3 BEV vehicles that will make money for them. Just my thoughts for today…..

 

I think I have to tone down my complaints about hybrids where I said they need 100 miles of battery range, sounds like 50-75 miles range will do the job and of-course the same batteries that make 200-300 mile range BEV could go into four(4) hybrids instead.

Earl Colby Pottinger (Tesla, Taycan, Bollinger, Rivian and other BEVs fan)

 

Come on, you got to admit it is fun, and passes the time while we wait for final test runs by outsiders.

Earl Colby Pottinger (Tesla, Taycan, Bollinger, Rivian and other BEVs fan)

 

Definitely something to these points.

However consider the news that has been posted elsewhere, that Daimler has decided to no longer develop ICE powertrains. If Tesla, Rivian, etc. are powerboats, the legacy automating industry is an Aircraft carrier....but it seems like the command to turn hard to starboard has been issued...

 

Hi Mike!

Knowing you it is good to see that you are testing these things, and you can always get an ICE if you need one. To me though, the BEV issue is loss of freedom. I want to drive anywhere, any time, and not be restricted to a network of predetermined byways chosen by others. That is fine for urbanites who rarely venture into the hoods and long distance traveling is by air only. For me the car, as we know it, is total freedom to go anywhere, very long distances for many days in a row, even, if need be, with an extra jug of gas in the trunk; can't do that with BEV.

 

I hear you but if you decide to go to Bali tomorrow which car are you going to take?