Tesla existential threat?
Racer
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 457
Likes: 95
From: California
Porsche is obviously rolling out the high-end Taycans first, of which very few will be bought. Even Porsche owners will likely never see one of the poorly-named "Turbo" or "Turbo S" Taycans on the road (outside of test drives from dealerships). I think that Porsche is unable to manufacture many of these yet, and they are stalling for time by introducing these high-end Taycans now. The real test is when the "lower-trim" Taycans come out in the next year or so -- how much range they have and how much they will cost. Word has been out for some time that there will be a low-end Taycan starting around $85k (USD) with only one axle powered. That won't challenge Tesla, either. It will also be interesting to see when the Sport Turismo version comes out in the next year or two -- which may be more like the Model S and will be a true hatchback. Regular sedans aren't the future. The Taycan Turbo does have back seats that go down, but the height for storage is very limited due to the back of the trunk space.
Don't forget the Model Y will be out next year. The Mecan EV likely will be too little too late for Porsche too. Taycan was a "safe" approach because Panamera is the least important model for Porsche. Compact/mid-sized SUV should have been the priority if Porsche was serious about the EV transition.
Rennlist Member
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,093
Likes: 2,941
From: Florida
Porsche is obviously rolling out the high-end Taycans first, of which very few will be bought. Even Porsche owners will likely never see one of the poorly-named "Turbo" or "Turbo S" Taycans on the road (outside of test drives from dealerships). I think that Porsche is unable to manufacture many of these yet, and they are stalling for time by introducing these high-end Taycans now. The real test is when the "lower-trim" Taycans come out in the next year or so -- how much range they have and how much they will cost. Word has been out for some time that there will be a low-end Taycan starting around $85k (USD) with only one axle powered. That won't challenge Tesla, either. It will also be interesting to see when the Sport Turismo version comes out in the next year or two -- which may be more like the Model S and will be a true hatchback. Regular sedans aren't the future. The Taycan Turbo does have back seats that go down, but the height for storage is very limited due to the back of the trunk space.
Porsche is only likely to challenge Tesla in any meaningful way with its forthcoming Macan EV in 2-3 years, in terms of presumably lower price that should lead to many purchases.
Porsche is only likely to challenge Tesla in any meaningful way with its forthcoming Macan EV in 2-3 years, in terms of presumably lower price that should lead to many purchases.
A 85K new Taycan will never happen now. Mark my words
Agree that a future EV macan in 3 years will be the biggest seller for Porsche.
Race Car
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 4,221
Likes: 102
From: SoCal
Another perspective on how the Taycan will affect Tesla:
And the Tesla profitability effect:
Then there's the latest imagine need effect;
And finally, we have the consumer rationalization factor;
https://seekingalpha.com/article/428...s-android?dr=1
The standard of measurement here is not whether the Porsche Taycan will (almost) eliminate Tesla’s Model S sales numbers. It won’t.
Rather, the standard of measurement is whether the Porsche Taycan will do either of two things:
1. Take away any material sales at all from Tesla.
2. Reduce the investor’s willingness to pay a high multiple on Tesla’s future estimated earnings.
If either of those two things happen, all other things equal, the Porsche Taycan will end up having a negative impact on Tesla’s stock price.
Rather, the standard of measurement is whether the Porsche Taycan will do either of two things:
1. Take away any material sales at all from Tesla.
2. Reduce the investor’s willingness to pay a high multiple on Tesla’s future estimated earnings.
If either of those two things happen, all other things equal, the Porsche Taycan will end up having a negative impact on Tesla’s stock price.
Porsche expects to sell 20,000 Taycan units per year initially, doubling to 40,000 annualized by the end of 2020. Even if only 5,000 to 10,000 of these cars will come from Tesla’s sales numbers,
that is a hit that Tesla can ill afford. Tesla is on track to sell not much more than 60,000 combined Model X and S in 2019. It is per definition a very bad thing for Tesla if it were to lose 6,000 would-be Tesla
Model X and S buyers to Porsche. That would be 10% of Tesla’s 60,000 combined Model X and S units at the 2019 estimated sales level.
that is a hit that Tesla can ill afford. Tesla is on track to sell not much more than 60,000 combined Model X and S in 2019. It is per definition a very bad thing for Tesla if it were to lose 6,000 would-be Tesla
Model X and S buyers to Porsche. That would be 10% of Tesla’s 60,000 combined Model X and S units at the 2019 estimated sales level.
If “the new cool car” to park in front of the country club or fancy restaurant no longer is a Tesla, but the Porsche Taycan, it will sting. It will tell the investor the direction in which the market is going.
It won’t matter that Tesla’s sales of the Model 3 will remain good at around 300,000 units per year for another year or so. Call it the “second derivative” effect if you like. It’s a sign of trouble somewhere ahead,
perhaps not until the second half of 2020 or 2021.Tesla has enjoyed a very special status in the automotive investing world because its product was so unique, so differentiated. It will remain different - just not
as different as before. And it may not be considered the “coolest car to own” among the most techno-status seeking crowds largely in the major coastal cities.
It won’t matter that Tesla’s sales of the Model 3 will remain good at around 300,000 units per year for another year or so. Call it the “second derivative” effect if you like. It’s a sign of trouble somewhere ahead,
perhaps not until the second half of 2020 or 2021.Tesla has enjoyed a very special status in the automotive investing world because its product was so unique, so differentiated. It will remain different - just not
as different as before. And it may not be considered the “coolest car to own” among the most techno-status seeking crowds largely in the major coastal cities.
People bought the iPhone for reasons such as perceived quality and uptime, including the Apple stores. Let’s take the automotive analogy here: Acceleration and range. Does a Tesla have longer range
than Porsche Taycan? Yes, when it’s not in the shop. Does a Tesla accelerate ever-so-slightly faster than a Porsche Taycan, in a straight line, at least once? Yes, it does - when it’s not in the shop. Because when
a Tesla is in the shop, its 0-60 MPH time may be 60 or 90 days, not 2.5 seconds. Its range will be zero - not 370 miles. Maybe, just maybe, the luxury car buyer with no significant budget limitation, will prioritize
reliability and service, compared to a 2.6 second vs 2.4 second 0-60 MPH time?
than Porsche Taycan? Yes, when it’s not in the shop. Does a Tesla accelerate ever-so-slightly faster than a Porsche Taycan, in a straight line, at least once? Yes, it does - when it’s not in the shop. Because when
a Tesla is in the shop, its 0-60 MPH time may be 60 or 90 days, not 2.5 seconds. Its range will be zero - not 370 miles. Maybe, just maybe, the luxury car buyer with no significant budget limitation, will prioritize
reliability and service, compared to a 2.6 second vs 2.4 second 0-60 MPH time?
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 9,362
Likes: 2,894
From: The Woodlands, TX.
Another perspective on how the Taycan will affect Tesla:
And the Tesla profitability effect:
Then there's the latest imagine need effect;
And finally, we have the consumer rationalization factor;
https://seekingalpha.com/article/428...s-android?dr=1
And the Tesla profitability effect:
Then there's the latest imagine need effect;
And finally, we have the consumer rationalization factor;
https://seekingalpha.com/article/428...s-android?dr=1
Lol, the desirability factor.
Come on, give up on this crap already. This guy is such a Tesla short it's not even funny.
Race Car
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 4,221
Likes: 102
From: SoCal
And then we have some who discount the effect of the intangibles and others that conclude outcomes solely based on a deterministic relationship.
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 9,362
Likes: 2,894
From: The Woodlands, TX.
Race Car
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 4,221
Likes: 102
From: SoCal
To clarify the implication:
There're always some who discount the effect of the intangibles and others that conclude outcomes solely based on deterministic relationships,
indicative of some recent posts in this thread with regard to how the Taycan will not affect Tesla.
There're always some who discount the effect of the intangibles and others that conclude outcomes solely based on deterministic relationships,
indicative of some recent posts in this thread with regard to how the Taycan will not affect Tesla.
Instructor
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 106
Likes: 27
It's going to be really interesting to see how a SUV BEV will be priced. If like for the Taycan they ~match the ICE models price, this might be quite tempting.
Race Car
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 4,221
Likes: 102
From: SoCal
Especially at the projected Tesla MY price, Porsche would not want to compete. That's for an Audi/VW product. In the case of Taycan, it competes only on some levels
with Tesla products. e.g. MS. Given the present typical consumers' marginal acceptance of BEV's, Tesla notwithstanding, marketing any volume consumer level BEV is high
risk and marginally profitable.
Racer
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 253
Likes: 139
$0.02
As a Tesla Model X owner I can tell you I'm purchasing a Taycan Turbo S not because its a better EV - but because I'm expecting it to be a better CAR. (I have no regrets about my Tesla and will always consider it a great car with amazing technology and "pretty good" build quality but also recognizing there is room for improvement).
This will be my 4th EV and I'm very happy that the 200+ mile club is now beginning to include more "mainstream" (and upscale) competitors. (Although I still greatly respect what Tesla has accomplished).
Performance DOES matter to me as I do have a dedicated M4 Track Car (I tracked my i8 ONCE). Although I did shop a GT3 back in 2014, this will be my first Porsche - so, I expect I would have ended up here sooner or later....
Its not about any disappointment, or hate, or love, or tribalism, or absolute performance numbers. Its about the industry itself finally recognizing the market that Elon had ultimately cultivated. Elon did a great job of showing the way, but its great for everyone that we now have lots more options becoming available in the 200-250 mile club. I don't feel like I'm selling out on Tesla, I feel like I'm giving Porsche an opportunity.
Its that simple.
Hats off (and wallets out) for a brand like Porsche getting there earlier than many! (inc BMW)
As a Tesla Model X owner I can tell you I'm purchasing a Taycan Turbo S not because its a better EV - but because I'm expecting it to be a better CAR. (I have no regrets about my Tesla and will always consider it a great car with amazing technology and "pretty good" build quality but also recognizing there is room for improvement).
This will be my 4th EV and I'm very happy that the 200+ mile club is now beginning to include more "mainstream" (and upscale) competitors. (Although I still greatly respect what Tesla has accomplished).
Performance DOES matter to me as I do have a dedicated M4 Track Car (I tracked my i8 ONCE). Although I did shop a GT3 back in 2014, this will be my first Porsche - so, I expect I would have ended up here sooner or later....
Its not about any disappointment, or hate, or love, or tribalism, or absolute performance numbers. Its about the industry itself finally recognizing the market that Elon had ultimately cultivated. Elon did a great job of showing the way, but its great for everyone that we now have lots more options becoming available in the 200-250 mile club. I don't feel like I'm selling out on Tesla, I feel like I'm giving Porsche an opportunity.
Its that simple.
Hats off (and wallets out) for a brand like Porsche getting there earlier than many! (inc BMW)
Intermediate
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 34
Likes: 15
$0.02
As a Tesla Model X owner I can tell you I'm purchasing a Taycan Turbo S not because its a better EV - but because I'm expecting it to be a better CAR. (I have no regrets about my Tesla and will always consider it a great car with amazing technology and "pretty good" build quality but also recognizing there is room for improvement).
This will be my 4th EV and I'm very happy that the 200+ mile club is now beginning to include more "mainstream" (and upscale) competitors. (Although I still greatly respect what Tesla has accomplished).
Performance DOES matter to me as I do have a dedicated M4 Track Car (I tracked my i8 ONCE). Although I did shop a GT3 back in 2014, this will be my first Porsche - so, I expect I would have ended up here sooner or later....
Its not about any disappointment, or hate, or love, or tribalism, or absolute performance numbers. Its about the industry itself finally recognizing the market that Elon had ultimately cultivated. Elon did a great job of showing the way, but its great for everyone that we now have lots more options becoming available in the 200-250 mile club. I don't feel like I'm selling out on Tesla, I feel like I'm giving Porsche an opportunity.
Its that simple.
Hats off (and wallets out) for a brand like Porsche getting there earlier than many! (inc BMW)
As a Tesla Model X owner I can tell you I'm purchasing a Taycan Turbo S not because its a better EV - but because I'm expecting it to be a better CAR. (I have no regrets about my Tesla and will always consider it a great car with amazing technology and "pretty good" build quality but also recognizing there is room for improvement).
This will be my 4th EV and I'm very happy that the 200+ mile club is now beginning to include more "mainstream" (and upscale) competitors. (Although I still greatly respect what Tesla has accomplished).
Performance DOES matter to me as I do have a dedicated M4 Track Car (I tracked my i8 ONCE). Although I did shop a GT3 back in 2014, this will be my first Porsche - so, I expect I would have ended up here sooner or later....
Its not about any disappointment, or hate, or love, or tribalism, or absolute performance numbers. Its about the industry itself finally recognizing the market that Elon had ultimately cultivated. Elon did a great job of showing the way, but its great for everyone that we now have lots more options becoming available in the 200-250 mile club. I don't feel like I'm selling out on Tesla, I feel like I'm giving Porsche an opportunity.
Its that simple.
Hats off (and wallets out) for a brand like Porsche getting there earlier than many! (inc BMW)
What if Tesla announces next generation model S this year? What if they were just waiting for the taycan reveal, with specs, and time their next gen announcement for end of this year? What if their next gen is a massive ergonomic upgrade with real sport mode hardware upgrades...think roadster inspired technology gains?
What if it was still priced below the Taycan?
What if?
Racer
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 457
Likes: 95
From: California
$0.02
As a Tesla Model X owner I can tell you I'm purchasing a Taycan Turbo S not because its a better EV - but because I'm expecting it to be a better CAR. (I have no regrets about my Tesla and will always consider it a great car with amazing technology and "pretty good" build quality but also recognizing there is room for improvement).
This will be my 4th EV and I'm very happy that the 200+ mile club is now beginning to include more "mainstream" (and upscale) competitors. (Although I still greatly respect what Tesla has accomplished).
Performance DOES matter to me as I do have a dedicated M4 Track Car (I tracked my i8 ONCE). Although I did shop a GT3 back in 2014, this will be my first Porsche - so, I expect I would have ended up here sooner or later....
Its not about any disappointment, or hate, or love, or tribalism, or absolute performance numbers. Its about the industry itself finally recognizing the market that Elon had ultimately cultivated. Elon did a great job of showing the way, but its great for everyone that we now have lots more options becoming available in the 200-250 mile club. I don't feel like I'm selling out on Tesla, I feel like I'm giving Porsche an opportunity.
Its that simple.
Hats off (and wallets out) for a brand like Porsche getting there earlier than many! (inc BMW)
As a Tesla Model X owner I can tell you I'm purchasing a Taycan Turbo S not because its a better EV - but because I'm expecting it to be a better CAR. (I have no regrets about my Tesla and will always consider it a great car with amazing technology and "pretty good" build quality but also recognizing there is room for improvement).
This will be my 4th EV and I'm very happy that the 200+ mile club is now beginning to include more "mainstream" (and upscale) competitors. (Although I still greatly respect what Tesla has accomplished).
Performance DOES matter to me as I do have a dedicated M4 Track Car (I tracked my i8 ONCE). Although I did shop a GT3 back in 2014, this will be my first Porsche - so, I expect I would have ended up here sooner or later....
Its not about any disappointment, or hate, or love, or tribalism, or absolute performance numbers. Its about the industry itself finally recognizing the market that Elon had ultimately cultivated. Elon did a great job of showing the way, but its great for everyone that we now have lots more options becoming available in the 200-250 mile club. I don't feel like I'm selling out on Tesla, I feel like I'm giving Porsche an opportunity.
Its that simple.
Hats off (and wallets out) for a brand like Porsche getting there earlier than many! (inc BMW)
Racer
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 253
Likes: 139
Good points, balanced.
What if Tesla announces next generation model S this year? What if they were just waiting for the taycan reveal, with specs, and time their next gen announcement for end of this year? What if their next gen is a massive ergonomic upgrade with real sport mode hardware upgrades...think roadster inspired technology gains?
What if it was still priced below the Taycan?
What if?
What if Tesla announces next generation model S this year? What if they were just waiting for the taycan reveal, with specs, and time their next gen announcement for end of this year? What if their next gen is a massive ergonomic upgrade with real sport mode hardware upgrades...think roadster inspired technology gains?
What if it was still priced below the Taycan?
What if?
Any "next gen" Model S would still be made by the same company that gave us all the other models. ...and its NOT that I have anything against Tesla (QUITE the opposite), its just that now I want to see what an established, upscale manufacturer like Porsche can do with a "real" EV (200+ miles).
...and Tesla IS already gearing up to deliver their "Next Gen" Model S. Its called the "Roadster" and it likely WILL wipe the map with all competitors from a raw performance perspective (1.9s, 250+ mph, 600 mi is what is promised). ...and it IS being sold at roughly the same price as a Taycan Turbo S. While you might say Elon has a checkered past in meeting his delivery dates, he also has a pretty good record of meeting his performance goals and proving many experts wrong along the way.
But if you are asking ME then it doesn't matter what EVERYONE else thinks. I believe the Roadster WILL likely meet its performance goals and I'm still NOT going to wait for it (2020 is the production estimate).
So, if your are asking me (as a "believer") what if Tesla made a next gen Model S - my wallet has already said "it doesn't matter".