One thing I keep laughing about when I catch up on this thread is even if the 992.2 GT3 market goes to MSRP, the price is still $40k+ more than last year. For years and years and years people have been screaming ADMs are going bye bye meanwhile MSRP has continued to go up and up and up so even if at some future date ADMs go to zero these “MSRP or not buying” people will end up paying more than just buying when they wanted to buy, even with paying the evil ADM. If you want one you have to pay market price. You can always wait, this is certainly not a need item, but waiting means you’ll pay the market price later (for better or worse).

One theory why I think TRUE MSRP (no trade in required, no watch, PPF, warranty, etc) will not come is because dealers will just hold the cars before they “accept” that the market no longer supports ADMs. Once a TRUE MSRP gets fairly normalized then dealers will have almost no chance of ever selling with ADM barring major future crazy unforeseeable stuff like hyper inflation, covid, etc. I think the bottom, if it ever comes, will require nonsense like over priced watch, PPF, tint, warranty, etc. These dealers are not going to go down easily.

 

Good luck. They’ll probably discount your trade-in $100 to do that for you.

 

I'm ok with that, just need to be able to tell myself, over and over, that I got a GT car 'below MSRP'.

 

Agree. I had a 997.1 GT3 for 6.5 yrs prior to the 992.1. And had other priorities (college, retirement, motorcycles - just ordered another one…) in 2022. But with the 997 ‘up’ 50% (much of that occurred 2022-2025) for what I was in it, I figured buy a perfect spec (for me) 2022 (prior to the 2022-2025 price increases) at ‘MSRP + the 997 ‘up’. While my dealer offered a 2025 or 2026 allocation, I couldn’t justify the additional $75kish for a new one. No complaints!

 

Looks like someone blew the dog whistle for karens. Never in my life have I seen so many people actually defend paying over sticker. I mean honestly, I’ve met and talked to a lot of people who paid over but weren’t happy about that but loved their cars so they were ok with it because they thought they were paying market value.

‘’Now it looks like there are super karens out there saying basically it’s ok that market manipulation is ok (eg fraud) because everyone else is doing this, my career has moved on nicely, or here’s the best one, my 401k is through the roof so I should be happy to get ripped off because I’ve won at life.

what a bunch of garbage. If I had someone in my office even hinting at some of this stuff I would fire them. This may be news to some people but it doesn’t matter how rich people are, nobody likes to get ripped off.

Ps: nobody likes these smarmy little know it all sales people who think they are really doing me a favor by talking to me about how lucky I am to be offered this or that.

 

Alright - so we know BAT is compromised. But I've been digging again (sorry).

I wanted to see if a site like BAT has their data or parts thereof get injected into official data that dealers use on the backend. For those that don't know there are several software programs that help a dealer run their business including what we are interested in: wholesale values and retail values. You might have heard of KBB trade in values. Or BlackBook, or even MMR (Manheim Market Report) which is ran by *** automotive. Blackbook and MMR are the back end source of truth for a lot of dealers. *** has a huge market share as they have their hands in everything they own: Kelley Blue Book, Manheim, AutoTrader and Dealertrack which is ridiculous.

I pulled up a VIN that we know that is tainted: VIN ...70908: WOB lists on BaT ($307k) → "meepcars" buys → Hendrick ($334,990) → wholesale auction → Cardinale/Porsche SLO ($315k). Because of the CARFAX we can prove it made a new stop. Wholesale auction. That wholesale auction transfer happened in one day. Hendrick's CPO listing closed on June 20, 2025. Cardinale/Porsche SLO had it listed for sale on June 21, 2025. That was pretty quick. Anyway...

We don't know what price was paid at the wholesale auction. I don't have data on that, but we do know it went through the wholesale system. Remember it was listed at $307K and "sold" at a tainted BAT price of $334,990 and then moved to an auction. Assuming the wholesale price split the difference — roughly +$14K above the BaT price — that estimated figure would feed into MMR as official data. That gets passed through backend systems. Wholesale auction prices feed the valuation systems dealers use to price inventory so when you walk into a dealer they can quote you trade in value for example. Most of you know this.

Lets follow the steps. A GT3 was “purchased’ at a manufactured comp price with BAT was then washed again by using a wholesale channel to another dealer at the auction house. The whole transaction becomes yet another data point, but this time its the same system (MMR) that another dealer will use to tell you what the market is. The BAT manufactured price just keeps infecting things further down stream.

If that wholesale price was elevated, and the documented chain suggests it was, this is more damaging to the entire market than BaT transactions. It is tainted backend data that feeds every dealer using MMR, not just buyers who look at BAT. Its a systematic issue.

 

Careful.. you're going to upset all the dealers and car brokers who keep saying these are 'investments'.

Also, this issue will inherently 'never' stop because owners love seeing their cars being inflated, whether it be real or fake.. it's sad but true, and that's why these threads don't really 'blow' up. The car industry has really turned from enthusiast driven to people who just want to show off at car shows, social media, or who buy something because it's 'rare' and not even because they care how the car drives.

 

Maybe the senate will launch an investigation like they did for Taylor Swift concert tickets.

 

"Let's follow the steps. A GT3 was “purchased’ at a manufactured comp price with BAT"

Thank you for all of your hard work in diving into this data morass. I've read your posts fairly carefully and perhaps I'm a moron, but because BAT auctions are open to everyone, how is the sales price a "manufactured comp price". While it's apparently a dealers playground ( thanks to your good work), that doesn't prevent me or any third party from jumping in and bidding.

Is the thesis that dealers are just bidding the cars up artificially so John Q Public can't buy at a lower price? That seems a risky fools errand to me- Dealers presumably bid only to the point that makes economic sense- they have financing (or cost of capital) and overhead and admin costs to cover and are they really going to overpay on the theory that they are setting a benchmark price that some idiot will come in and pay??

I get how this is a way for Porsche dealers getting ADM by having the car "washed" through BAT, but that still doesn't mean that the bidding dealers manufactured a price as I could bid on the same car. And I assume that they wouldn't pay a price over what would be required to flip it at a profit.

Thanks again for your efforts on all this. However, while I may need to be put in a corner with the Dunce cap, I'm not quite seeing the thesis.

 

No one is celebrating buying the car over sticker.. you have no idea what kind of ADM I paid for my touring. All I am saying, is that the market price is NOT MSRP yet.

If Porsche made a new rule effective tomorrow that no dealerships were allowed to charge an ADM, the demand would far exceed the supply. When this happens, we see secondary market sales happening over MSRP. I think the 50-70k ADM is too high, I personally wouldn’t pay that. But I do believe the true market value of these cars is higher than the MSRP.

Yes, there is clearly some shady transactions happening on BAT. However, if you removed those transactions from any sales history data points, the market price of these cars wouldn’t magically be MSRP.

I’m not happy I had to pay an ADM, but I understand economics well enough to know that due to supply and demand, market price for these cars is still higher than the current MSRP.

Thanks for trying to **** on my corn flakes.. I’m going to enjoy driving my 992.2 Touring. It’s an incredible car, maybe one day you can own one too. Just keep waiting for the prices to crash Karen.

 

I find all of this interesting, but still don't see it as manipulation, or see that it is really affecting end-user prices paid.

There are several thousand GT3s in the hands of owners. They could sell their cars if this market was artificially high. But they prefer to own the car at 300k (or whatever) than sell it. If you think that the prices are BS, put your car up on BAT. Is the argument that you will only get 225 for your car because you don't have shill bidders or aren't working in cahoots with a dealer? No way. There is no data to suggest that private sellers are getting MSRP or less on BAT while these so-caller phoney auctions are getting 100k over MSRP. So, go ahead, sell. But you won't, because you prefer your car to the 300k.

I think 4 of my Porsches now were all purchased over MSRP (none with "ADM" though). Worst example is 1969 911s which is probably worth 15x MSRP. 964 Carrera RS at 2x MSRP. Etc. There is demand. I wasn't tricked into paying up for the 964 because I saw a BAT sale. The car is worth that to me. If I can sell if for 400k tomorrow, I will. I am sure I can sell if for what I paid.

Just because there are apparently shady things going on doesn't mean that the end-user prices are artifically high. If Porsche didn't discourage or prevent dealers from pricing at the market, buyers would all have time to look at the cars, configure, etc. And the buyer with the highest willingness to pay would get the car. Instead, Porsche has created a system where dealers can't freely charge what the market will bear. So in come all of these shenanigans, middlemen, etc. And the ultimate allocation process to end-users is messy and inefficient.

Still, I am not convinced that prices are too high because of any of this. People like the cars, and are willing to pay a ton for them. BAT is probably <5% of the GT3 market, so I don't really think that the rest of us are all getting ripped off when we are willing pay big money for the cars, or when we don't sell what we have for that same big money.

 

You think that these dealer-dealer transactions actually include any money changing hands? The BAT hammer price is just numbers on a screen.

To quote a great movie: "You think that's air you're breathing now?" - The Matrix

 

There is no spoon

 

i wonder if BAT cuts them slack (ie: doesn't charge the 5% buyer fee)

Also - if you look at certain BAT auctions, dealers will bid the car's price up, eventually step out, leaving some poor guy bidding a higher price just to win the auction
then when you check that dealer's website, you see that they have similar cars in their inventory that had been sitting for months unsold. I wonder if they are bidding up similar cars on auction just to tell their prospective buyers "look at what that one sold for on BAT" and justify their stupid price

 

I think the concept of MSRP should mean something. The manufacturer sets a price, where if paid, the dealership makes enough profit to continue in business.

I wish Porsche would manufacture significantly more GT3s, especially for the U.S. market.