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You can say that again, look at the Feds balance sheet (blue line) vs the S&P since 2003. Every "economic event" led to a dip in the S&P, then stimulus then market growth. Look at the "depositor bailout"that happened recently and its clear that the Fed borrowed(printed) more money for it.
Sure there are people here smarter with markets than myself but this is pretty obvious. The COVID bump is massive.
And the huge sugar rush that we got will not happen again in our lifetime.
I pulled the trigger, 33 over if the watch is worth $12k.
I was kidding - most people would say the watch isn't worth $12K - if it was a Rolex Submariner they'd just drop the ADM to $33K and skip making you buy the watch
You can clearly see the feds QT start in May 22, until the bank failures came into play and then up we go again.
That huge vertical spike for COVID before it starts to curve is said to be an accounting change. I need to tell my account about implementing that change!!
Before COVID 4.6T now we are at 8.73T on the FEDS books, and it all went to Porsche.... Or at least it feels like
And $250k means wildly different things depending where you live. Someone in Houston making $250k might have a decent house and a corvette in their garage. You’d need $400-$450k in the Bay Area to do the same.
You can say that again, look at the Feds balance sheet (blue line) vs the S&P since 2003. Every "economic event" led to a dip in the S&P, then stimulus then market growth. Look at the "depositor bailout"that happened recently and its clear that the Fed borrowed(printed) more money for it.
Sure there are people here smarter with markets than myself but this is pretty obvious. The COVID bump is massive.
Am I the only one who looks at this and is genuinely fearful for the future of this country?
And $250k means wildly different things depending where you live. Someone in Houston making $250k might have a decent house and a corvette in their garage. You’d need $400-$450k in the Bay Area to do the same.
This is an extreme example, but about 30 years ago I worked with a woman on Wall Street who said she was lower middle class and couldn't afford a normal apartment because she and her husband only made $700k a year.. . .30 years ago. The issue was that she and her husband were close with a bunch of really successful people and they felt the need to consistently live as if they were making millions a year. They were worse than paycheck to paycheck. I'm sure they were building up debt while making a lot of income.
In the end, the husband became wildly successful so it didn't end up mattering, but I suspect most people like that end up defaulting on something.
There was a big drop in US sales volumes of Porsches during the financial meltdown which started in 2008. The 2007 sales volume was not reached again until 2012. If we have a serious recession in the next year or so, I expect that demand for these cars will come down a lot, and therefore ADM will come down a lot also, maybe to zero or less.
Also, most of the growth of Porsche annual sales volume over the past 20 years has been due to the Cayenne, Panamera, Macan, and Taycan. Porsche has gradually turned into a company that primarily makes SUVs and sedans, and also happens to make some rear-engine and mid-engine sports cars.
Yep, when I look at inventory at my Chicagoland dealers, it's > 90% Cayenne, Macan, Panamera. Hell maybe 95%. No joke. 718 GTS, Spyder nowhere to be found. Seeing a 992 911 with low miles is damn near impossible save a couple Turbo S cars. There are 3 overpriced 992 GT3s with over 2500 miles on them at Porsche Exchange. At those price points, no thanks!
Bingo.
It's shocking just how financially illiterate people are when it comes to basic supply and demand concepts.
Lot's of conflated claims have been made here, repeatedly only looking at one side of the equation or comparing the spending habits of much richer people to those that are on the margin.
But that's what a disruption does. It decreases demand. Just like what Covid did. Demand went in the toilet. When demand overall starts going down, the ADMs on the normal cars disappear, and the ADMs on the GT cars goes down too. We're living in insanity right now, and this won't last forever.
I'd have to say supply has been formerly limited, and will slowly improve. The demand won't stay at the upper levels. There's a normalization coming.
But that's what a disruption does. It decreases demand. Just like what Covid did. Demand went in the toilet. When demand overall starts going down, the ADMs on the normal cars disappear, and the ADMs on the GT cars goes down too. We're living in insanity right now, and this won't last forever.
I'd have to say supply has been formerly limited, and will slowly improve. The demand won't stay at the upper levels. There's a normalization coming.
I'm looking out 6-9 months...we'll see!
Agreed, things will normalize over time. People will not be spending like drunken sailors going forward. This sorta feels like the late 2007/early 2008 and I feel there are going to be more blow ups out in the financial/investment industry.
There was a big drop in US sales volumes of Porsches during the financial meltdown which started in 2008. The 2007 sales volume was not reached again until 2012. If we have a serious recession in the next year or so, I expect that demand for these cars will come down a lot, and therefore ADM will come down a lot also, maybe to zero or less.
it’s not 2008. There’s no broad mortgage crisis. Economic fundamentals are so strong as to be too strong. There was a catastrophic global supply crisis in 2020, and there’s a lot of pent up demand being fulfilled to rectify that. That’s real economic activity. This recession, should it occur, will not be anything like 2008.
it’s not 2008. There’s no broad mortgage crisis. Economic fundamentals are so strong as to be too strong. There was a catastrophic global supply crisis in 2020, and there’s a lot of pent up demand being fulfilled to rectify that. That’s real economic activity. This recession, should it occur, will not be anything like 2008.
I don't expect it to be like 2008, but I do expect enough of a recession to substantially damp down the demand for these Porsche sports cars. But effect on car prices isn't an effect I care a lot about, I'm mostly interested in investments.
But that's what a disruption does. It decreases demand. Just like what Covid did. Demand went in the toilet. When demand overall starts going down, the ADMs on the normal cars disappear, and the ADMs on the GT cars goes down too. We're living in insanity right now, and this won't last forever.
I'd have to say supply has been formerly limited, and will slowly improve. The demand won't stay at the upper levels. There's a normalization coming.
I'm looking out 6-9 months...we'll see!
There were only about 2900 992 GT3's made for the U.S. market. People on this thread act as though Porsche built 29,000 for the U.S.
ADM's have continued to be robust.
But many in this thread are in massive denial. There's an old saying in the stock market ... "Trade what you SEE, not what you HOPE to see."
There are over 8,000 engineers in the engineering department at GOOGLE. Ever been in their parking lot on a Friday?
It will make your eyes water.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 03-29-2023 at 12:38 AM.
Or, if you consider the other side of the looking glass… I would say the last cycle of economic growth (at least the duration of) is also almost entirely artificial, and ironically, ‘engineered by the fed’.
hmmm. I’m not sure I’d agree with that. It took a very long time for most people to recover from 2008. That recovery was real work. Regardless, the 30% gdp collapse in May of 2020 changed everything. Repairing all the damage is real economic activity. The demand for goods is real and repairing supply chains is real and fulfilling pent up demand that was on hiatus in 2020 is real. If it was artificial it would be far easier for the Fed to manage.
The price of goods is deeply effected by the record breaking monetary stimulus that went on, nearly $8T in M2 growth to keep the wheels glued on at all as summer of 2020 unfolded. And yeah, a chunk of that went literally to supercars by way of massive aset price increases. The Fed only has a plan to withdraw something like $2-3T of that. As far as they’ve said … ever. So … money is going to stay in asset prices guys. Stock market is going to stay elevated compared to 2019. Forever ? Maybe ? We’ll see. Inflation is ****ty. But deflation is rioting in the streets and overthrowing governments. Sorry, nobody is choosing door #2 to fix inflation.
03-28-2023, 07:40 PM
