A place to discuss all things ADM
#5416
You can say that again, look at the Feds balance sheet (blue line) vs the S&P since 2003. Every "economic event" led to a dip in the S&P, then stimulus then market growth. Look at the "depositor bailout"that happened recently and its clear that the Fed borrowed(printed) more money for it.
Sure there are people here smarter with markets than myself but this is pretty obvious. The COVID bump is massive.
Sure there are people here smarter with markets than myself but this is pretty obvious. The COVID bump is massive.
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IRunalot (03-28-2023)
#5417
#5418
You can clearly see the feds QT start in May 22, until the bank failures came into play and then up we go again.
That huge vertical spike for COVID before it starts to curve is said to be an accounting change. I need to tell my account about implementing that change!!
Before COVID 4.6T now we are at 8.73T on the FEDS books, and it all went to Porsche.... Or at least it feels like
That huge vertical spike for COVID before it starts to curve is said to be an accounting change. I need to tell my account about implementing that change!!
Before COVID 4.6T now we are at 8.73T on the FEDS books, and it all went to Porsche.... Or at least it feels like
Last edited by IRunalot; 03-28-2023 at 07:51 PM.
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AlexCeres (03-29-2023)
#5419
#5420
If I'm interpreting it correctly (maybe not), according to this calculator, 93th percentile is $200k in 2012 and $250k in 2022.
https://dqydj.com/household-income-by-year/
https://dqydj.com/household-income-by-year/
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Manifold (03-28-2023)
#5421
You can say that again, look at the Feds balance sheet (blue line) vs the S&P since 2003. Every "economic event" led to a dip in the S&P, then stimulus then market growth. Look at the "depositor bailout"that happened recently and its clear that the Fed borrowed(printed) more money for it.
Sure there are people here smarter with markets than myself but this is pretty obvious. The COVID bump is massive.
Sure there are people here smarter with markets than myself but this is pretty obvious. The COVID bump is massive.
#5422
In the end, the husband became wildly successful so it didn't end up mattering, but I suspect most people like that end up defaulting on something.
#5423
There was a big drop in US sales volumes of Porsches during the financial meltdown which started in 2008. The 2007 sales volume was not reached again until 2012. If we have a serious recession in the next year or so, I expect that demand for these cars will come down a lot, and therefore ADM will come down a lot also, maybe to zero or less.
https://press.porsche.com/prod/press...s?OpenDocument
Also, most of the growth of Porsche annual sales volume over the past 20 years has been due to the Cayenne, Panamera, Macan, and Taycan. Porsche has gradually turned into a company that primarily makes SUVs and sedans, and also happens to make some rear-engine and mid-engine sports cars.
https://www.stuttcars.com/porsche-sa...ction-numbers/
https://press.porsche.com/prod/press...s?OpenDocument
Also, most of the growth of Porsche annual sales volume over the past 20 years has been due to the Cayenne, Panamera, Macan, and Taycan. Porsche has gradually turned into a company that primarily makes SUVs and sedans, and also happens to make some rear-engine and mid-engine sports cars.
https://www.stuttcars.com/porsche-sa...ction-numbers/
#5424
#5425
Bingo.
It's shocking just how financially illiterate people are when it comes to basic supply and demand concepts.
Lot's of conflated claims have been made here, repeatedly only looking at one side of the equation or comparing the spending habits of much richer people to those that are on the margin.
It's shocking just how financially illiterate people are when it comes to basic supply and demand concepts.
Lot's of conflated claims have been made here, repeatedly only looking at one side of the equation or comparing the spending habits of much richer people to those that are on the margin.
I'd have to say supply has been formerly limited, and will slowly improve. The demand won't stay at the upper levels. There's a normalization coming.
I'm looking out 6-9 months...we'll see!
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#5426
But that's what a disruption does. It decreases demand. Just like what Covid did. Demand went in the toilet. When demand overall starts going down, the ADMs on the normal cars disappear, and the ADMs on the GT cars goes down too. We're living in insanity right now, and this won't last forever.
I'd have to say supply has been formerly limited, and will slowly improve. The demand won't stay at the upper levels. There's a normalization coming.
I'm looking out 6-9 months...we'll see!
I'd have to say supply has been formerly limited, and will slowly improve. The demand won't stay at the upper levels. There's a normalization coming.
I'm looking out 6-9 months...we'll see!
#5427
There was a big drop in US sales volumes of Porsches during the financial meltdown which started in 2008. The 2007 sales volume was not reached again until 2012. If we have a serious recession in the next year or so, I expect that demand for these cars will come down a lot, and therefore ADM will come down a lot also, maybe to zero or less.
https://press.porsche.com/prod/press...s?OpenDocument
https://press.porsche.com/prod/press...s?OpenDocument
#5428
Rennlist Member
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 13,409
Likes: 4,592
From: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
it’s not 2008. There’s no broad mortgage crisis. Economic fundamentals are so strong as to be too strong. There was a catastrophic global supply crisis in 2020, and there’s a lot of pent up demand being fulfilled to rectify that. That’s real economic activity. This recession, should it occur, will not be anything like 2008.
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IRunalot (03-29-2023)
#5429
But that's what a disruption does. It decreases demand. Just like what Covid did. Demand went in the toilet. When demand overall starts going down, the ADMs on the normal cars disappear, and the ADMs on the GT cars goes down too. We're living in insanity right now, and this won't last forever.
I'd have to say supply has been formerly limited, and will slowly improve. The demand won't stay at the upper levels. There's a normalization coming.
I'm looking out 6-9 months...we'll see!
I'd have to say supply has been formerly limited, and will slowly improve. The demand won't stay at the upper levels. There's a normalization coming.
I'm looking out 6-9 months...we'll see!
ADM's have continued to be robust.
But many in this thread are in massive denial. There's an old saying in the stock market ... "Trade what you SEE, not what you HOPE to see."
There are over 8,000 engineers in the engineering department at GOOGLE. Ever been in their parking lot on a Friday?
It will make your eyes water.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 03-29-2023 at 12:38 AM.
#5430
The price of goods is deeply effected by the record breaking monetary stimulus that went on, nearly $8T in M2 growth to keep the wheels glued on at all as summer of 2020 unfolded. And yeah, a chunk of that went literally to supercars by way of massive aset price increases. The Fed only has a plan to withdraw something like $2-3T of that. As far as they’ve said … ever. So … money is going to stay in asset prices guys. Stock market is going to stay elevated compared to 2019. Forever ? Maybe ? We’ll see. Inflation is ****ty. But deflation is rioting in the streets and overthrowing governments. Sorry, nobody is choosing door #2 to fix inflation.
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shrimp money (03-29-2023)