Not sure it's alarmism (at least at any higher a rate than media typically is); it's a very recent development that we're walking into a slowing economy with a gun against our heads to raise, not lower, rates. At any rate, a recession is a normal and healthy part of economic cycles. As to your question as to why monetary policy would impact cost of energy, labour, and the supply chain....it is because our current inflation has a lot to do with more traditional demand-pull inflation which is due to aggregate demand overheating, rather than cost-push inflation; this is also why the chart you referenced for the M2 in the 80s did not show massive growth despite the inflation as that was more cost-push and not a result of abnormally loose monetary policy for a long period of time. US oil production is not lower than it used to be and frankly while the US is a swing producer now, increased production will not have a big impact on oil prices. The WTI-Brent spread is the same level it was in 2018 and given that when US production ticked up and caused a surplus in 2014/15 and oil prices crashed to $30, a lot of shale production was unprofitable so oil companies are gunshy about committing capital. The demand picture is causing inflation and that's what the Fed is hoping to moderate and as aggregate demand = GDP, there's a pretty elevated chance of a recession. Whether it's short and technical or more protracted is a tougher call.

 

Let me clarify... I already think we are in a recession but it won't formally be called a recession until we have 2 quarters of negative growth... my point is that everyone freaks out about a recession (because of media's alarmism) like it's the end of the world, but as you mentioned above, it's a normal and healthy part of the economic cycle.

The issue I have about the Fed raising interest rates is that they are intentionally trying to f*** the economy without looking at other alternatives like increasing oil production (which by the way, if production is same as 2018... that's not enough oil for 2022), actually trying to help sort out the supply chain issues at the ports where boats full of stuff are just sitting, etc...

Anyways, RL is a horrible platform to discuss the economy. Looks like Porsche has commited to producing GT3s through December 2022, hopefully a little longer since the lists for those are still long.

 

The Fed increased money supply by 38% during Covid times. Any time you increase money supply that much in a relatively short period of time, you will end up with inflation. The fed can do little to control the inflation now, they will over react with rates and it will do little to curb inflation. Milton Friedman is probably turning in his grave at the Fed printing 38% more money or as he liked to say, tax receipts.

 

Small marker: I went to see a GT3T in person (have yet to see an example one on one) today at a used specialty car dealer across from where I service one of my cars. By the time I got there, the car had sold (allegedly) earlier that morning for $100K over sticker per the salesperson I spoke with yesterday who was going to show it to me. Glad I went as they had a jade green 3.6 965 that blew my mind, which belongs to a friend of the owner and the car was being stored there. #GEMS.

 

Amazing over 100 used cars for sale all with low miles.

 

On the market for a couple of weeks and pending sale at $299,950. ADMs are still going strong:

https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?listingId=645038008&makeCodeList=POR&modelCodeList= 911

 

Yeah, but what did they they take? My speedster had a ADM of 200k, and it sat and I got it for MSRP. 100 cars sitting they’re not flying of the lots ………they were all in the 300k range. I’m all about free market, but they will come down I’ve watched this movie for a long time like others.

 

Says ‘price reduced’ do you know previous asking price?

 

$305K

 

I know this dealership pretty well. They likely got $295K (potentially even the $299,950 reduced asking price).

 

I'm sure people are paying high ADMs still; just that they're much fewer and farther inbetween. If everyone looking for a GT3 was willing to pay ADMs, there wouldn't be over 100 cars on sale. EVO rwds are also asking ADMs of $50k plus and sitting for months but still haven't gotten to 110+ cars for sale. Not to mention that they weren't a limited run model in the first place and now have 2.5 model years of production vs 1 like the GT3.

 

GT3 ADMs will be affected by the market price of the RS and when Porsche shuts the valve on MY 2023 allocations.

 

What you have now is like playing Blackjack, and the dude next to takes a hit on 17 with the dealer showing 12. No need to pay 100k over with cars sitting and building just saying. I will watch the dumpster fire good movie to watch.

 

Maybe so and time will surely tell, but right now cars are moving within a matter of weeks and still commanding $90-$100K over sticker. Like it or not, it is the current market.

 

And how many of those idiots...errr buyers are there left in the market? It's declining by the day and more GT3s are hitting the market as time goes by. ADMs have nowhere to go but down.