Market Glut....GT3 and gt3rs ?
04-21-2017, 04:11 PM
#121
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By definition MSRP is always the right selling number for a new car.
The $176K MSRP is the right number for the RS. Interestingly only slightly lower then the $184K MSRP for the R which is it's "right" number.
Market determines the "wrong" number that cars actually trade hands for depending on what side of the transaction your on.
The $176K MSRP is the right number for the RS. Interestingly only slightly lower then the $184K MSRP for the R which is it's "right" number.
Market determines the "wrong" number that cars actually trade hands for depending on what side of the transaction your on.
Ha ha that'll contradict all market theories. There are tons of related markets where Manufacturer Suggested Price was later adjusted by market. Wine, house, concert tickets etc. For example a lot of Wine, concert tickets, and newly developed small housing area, sells out the day it was up for sale at the price the supplier listed, and days later the wines and concert tickets were going for 5X the price, and houses were going for 20% premium. Sure, you may say some stuffs are hype, which is true, but some other stuffs just never came down in market price, like the wines and houses that continue to be traded well above MSRP for the next 20 years, have they been trading hands all these 20 years at the "wrong" price?
Ok, I get it, just having more examples doesn't mean its "right". But get this, your house that you bought 10 years ago at suggested listed price by the developer who newly built it was 100k, now its 300k, if you sell your house at 300k now, would it be traded at the "wrong" price? Ok, you may say real estate is different, though there is argument for the similarity, we'll just let it pass. How about wine and car? 1982 bottle of Chateau Lafite Rothschild was listed for around $250 per bottle when it was released by Negotions, and its been trading hands at $4000 per bottle for last 10 years. 2010 GT3RS was 140k MSRP, and now some of them are trading hands at 170k MSRP, are they still trading hands at the "wrong" price after 7 years? This is where market theories and forces kick in, in time, the market determines the fair value price. We're talking about long periods of time now, 7 years or what not, so lets just shorten it, make it 1 year, make it half year. PCNA determined the MSRP of the GT3, in January of 2017, even if that MSRP was "right" then, by the time the first GT3 gets into people's hands, it would be September already, and 8 months has passed, the market may have changed then. Unfortunately as omniscient as the person who put a number on the MSRP, he/she/they are just a small group of people. Sure, its backed by cost, etc etc. But what is stopping them from calling MSRP 150k instead, or 160k, or 170k? If they list any of those prices, are they all "right"? Whatever they say is right?
There are so many cases where it is the other way around. Besides the first year of release, Maserati Ghibli cannot sell much of any Ghibli without discounting is 15-20k. The MSRP of Ghibli is 72k to 95k, but most of them were sold brand new on the current model year at 56k to 65k. Why even bother listing MSRP this high if every single car you would have to discount this much? Are they trading hands at the wrong price here? If they insisted selling every car at MSRP like Tesla or Scion, Maserati would be dead by now and you'll see thousands of inventory before they died.
04-21-2017, 04:46 PM
#122
Nordschleife Master
Ha ha that'll contradict all market theories. There are tons of related markets where Manufacturer Suggested Price was later adjusted by market. Wine, house, concert tickets etc. For example a lot of Wine, concert tickets, and newly developed small housing area, sells out the day it was up for sale at the price the supplier listed, and days later the wines and concert tickets were going for 5X the price, and houses were going for 20% premium. Sure, you may say some stuffs are hype, which is true, but some other stuffs just never came down in market price, like the wines and houses that continue to be traded well above MSRP for the next 20 years, have they been trading hands all these 20 years at the "wrong" price?
Ok, I get it, just having more examples doesn't mean its "right". But get this, your house that you bought 10 years ago at suggested listed price by the developer who newly built it was 100k, now its 300k, if you sell your house at 300k now, would it be traded at the "wrong" price? Ok, you may say real estate is different, though there is argument for the similarity, we'll just let it pass. How about wine and car? 1982 bottle of Chateau Lafite Rothschild was listed for around $250 per bottle when it was released by Negotions, and its been trading hands at $4000 per bottle for last 10 years. 2010 GT3RS was 140k MSRP, and now some of them are trading hands at 170k MSRP, are they still trading hands at the "wrong" price after 7 years? This is where market theories and forces kick in, in time, the market determines the fair value price. We're talking about long periods of time now, 7 years or what not, so lets just shorten it, make it 1 year, make it half year. PCNA determined the MSRP of the GT3, in January of 2017, even if that MSRP was "right" then, by the time the first GT3 gets into people's hands, it would be September already, and 8 months has passed, the market may have changed then. Unfortunately as omniscient as the person who put a number on the MSRP, he/she/they are just a small group of people. Sure, its backed by cost, etc etc. But what is stopping them from calling MSRP 150k instead, or 160k, or 170k? If they list any of those prices, are they all "right"? Whatever they say is right?
There are so many cases where it is the other way around. Besides the first year of release, Maserati Ghibli cannot sell much of any Ghibli without discounting is 15-20k. The MSRP of Ghibli is 72k to 95k, but most of them were sold brand new on the current model year at 56k to 65k. Why even bother listing MSRP this high if every single car you would have to discount this much? Are they trading hands at the wrong price here? If they insisted selling every car at MSRP like Tesla or Scion, Maserati would be dead by now and you'll see thousands of inventory before they died.
Ok, I get it, just having more examples doesn't mean its "right". But get this, your house that you bought 10 years ago at suggested listed price by the developer who newly built it was 100k, now its 300k, if you sell your house at 300k now, would it be traded at the "wrong" price? Ok, you may say real estate is different, though there is argument for the similarity, we'll just let it pass. How about wine and car? 1982 bottle of Chateau Lafite Rothschild was listed for around $250 per bottle when it was released by Negotions, and its been trading hands at $4000 per bottle for last 10 years. 2010 GT3RS was 140k MSRP, and now some of them are trading hands at 170k MSRP, are they still trading hands at the "wrong" price after 7 years? This is where market theories and forces kick in, in time, the market determines the fair value price. We're talking about long periods of time now, 7 years or what not, so lets just shorten it, make it 1 year, make it half year. PCNA determined the MSRP of the GT3, in January of 2017, even if that MSRP was "right" then, by the time the first GT3 gets into people's hands, it would be September already, and 8 months has passed, the market may have changed then. Unfortunately as omniscient as the person who put a number on the MSRP, he/she/they are just a small group of people. Sure, its backed by cost, etc etc. But what is stopping them from calling MSRP 150k instead, or 160k, or 170k? If they list any of those prices, are they all "right"? Whatever they say is right?
There are so many cases where it is the other way around. Besides the first year of release, Maserati Ghibli cannot sell much of any Ghibli without discounting is 15-20k. The MSRP of Ghibli is 72k to 95k, but most of them were sold brand new on the current model year at 56k to 65k. Why even bother listing MSRP this high if every single car you would have to discount this much? Are they trading hands at the wrong price here? If they insisted selling every car at MSRP like Tesla or Scion, Maserati would be dead by now and you'll see thousands of inventory before they died.
Yes, MSRP are often adjusted by the actual market. 991GT3RS is a prime example. 911R is another. Wait....918 is another. Hold on,Ford GT is another...Come to think of it GT350 and Boss 302 is another, '65 GT350,' 67 Shelby GT500, 289/427 Cobra, etc...etc...
Many others exist.
04-21-2017, 04:47 PM
#123
Congrats on landing a GT3 I think it was you in another thread. The goodness on the R's they received at MSRP. The one I know purchased to enjoy, but I do think it will always be a special numbered car. It will bounce in value but never MSRP.
04-21-2017, 05:53 PM
#124
04-21-2017, 06:17 PM
#125
04-21-2017, 06:26 PM
#126
04-21-2017, 06:31 PM
#127
Rennlist Member
By definition MSRP is always the right selling number for a new car.
The $176K MSRP is the right number for the RS. Interestingly only slightly lower then the $184K MSRP for the R which is it's "right" number.
Market determines the "wrong" number that cars actually trade hands for depending on what side of the transaction your on.
The $176K MSRP is the right number for the RS. Interestingly only slightly lower then the $184K MSRP for the R which is it's "right" number.
Market determines the "wrong" number that cars actually trade hands for depending on what side of the transaction your on.
04-21-2017, 07:08 PM
#128
Nordschleife Master
04-21-2017, 09:03 PM
#129
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As a bystander to the GT market I personally do not think there is a glut of RS's out there, not even close. Even 200 cars wouldn't be a glut when you look at the big picture. But if cars are sitting on dealer lots and private sellers aren't getting any bites with asking prices well above MSRP it's a clear sign that the market is speaking and a bit of reality needs to set in if they want these cars trading hands.
04-21-2017, 10:19 PM
#130
Nordschleife Master
04-21-2017, 11:10 PM
#131
Originally Posted by bronson7
The economy at the time has the most to do with market price.
Has anyone ever heard these words?
"Buy it, you will never loose money on it"
"Money is free, buy today and pay later"
Soon after these words are spoken the market always crash.
Stock market, car market, wine market. All the same.
Interest rates going from 1 to 2% is a 100% increase.
Scary times ahead.
Going from 5-6% is not to bad.
04-22-2017, 04:23 PM
#132
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As a bystander to the GT market I personally do not think there is a glut of RS's out there, not even close. Even 200 cars wouldn't be a glut when you look at the big picture. But if cars are sitting on dealer lots and private sellers aren't getting any bites with asking prices well above MSRP it's a clear sign that the market is speaking and a bit of reality needs to set in if they want these cars trading hands.
I bid on the white one at $35K over c. 3 months ago and was rejected. It is now since sold, at an estimated double that premium according to the sales guy i spoke to last week. The silver one is still there and they are asking $90K over.
Doubtless they will not get that, but I assure you the market is still very much premium in the Bay Area at least. That they are all sitting on lots gathering dust is not 100% true.
04-22-2017, 04:41 PM
#133
One very recent datapoint - Stevens Creek Porsche had 2 GT3RS (a GT silver and white).
I bid on the white one at $35K over c. 3 months ago and was rejected. It is now since sold, at an estimated double that premium according to the sales guy i spoke to last week. The silver one is still there and they are asking $90K over.
Doubtless they will not get that, but I assure you the market is still very much premium in the Bay Area at least. That they are all sitting on lots gathering dust is not 100% true.
I bid on the white one at $35K over c. 3 months ago and was rejected. It is now since sold, at an estimated double that premium according to the sales guy i spoke to last week. The silver one is still there and they are asking $90K over.
Doubtless they will not get that, but I assure you the market is still very much premium in the Bay Area at least. That they are all sitting on lots gathering dust is not 100% true.
04-22-2017, 11:48 PM
#134
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The irony here is someone will always pay. A key point is that 100k in some instances is a decimal point in ones income so the increase is not noticed. I just come to the point Porsche is a business, and in my business if I can sell higher that's my goal so I never take it personal. I will only buy at my comfort point. I MSRP is suggested which can mean higher or lower. Looks like you have Mr purple congrats!
04-22-2017, 11:55 PM
#135
GT3 player par excellence
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glut?
1. not that many out there
2. even if they are out there sitting and NOT selling, you wonder why. dealers are not that dumb. they would lower the price. but they haven't........
and if there's a glut, GREAT then those who have no RS can now get one at good price. so what is the problem?
price going up: complain
price drops down: complain
how about just buy a fkg car and drive the sh*t out of it?
1. not that many out there
2. even if they are out there sitting and NOT selling, you wonder why. dealers are not that dumb. they would lower the price. but they haven't........
and if there's a glut, GREAT then those who have no RS can now get one at good price. so what is the problem?
price going up: complain
price drops down: complain
how about just buy a fkg car and drive the sh*t out of it?