tmg57

I can't speak to the Chinese market, but I don't imagine that in the U.S. there is suddenly a big new group of potential buyers for the GT3 defined by their inability to shift a MT. In a few years, that may become the case but, right now, I would think that almost anyone who is ready to step into a GT3 has had MT experience on the street and, very likely, at DE, Driving schools, and/or other track events. There may be a few real poseurs out there, but I don't think they comprise a significant new market segment.

TRAKCAR

You'd be surprised how many DE beginner specially, can't drive very well and can't drive stick at all.

Mike in CA

Agree. Production will be limited if only by capacity and they won't build 911's anywhere but Zuffenhausen. AP said initially that GT3's would make up about 10% of total 911 production. Current pace is about 10-11,000 911's a year. Do the math.......

ShakeNBake

US number? Because they sold over 25K last year WW.

Nick

The CEO of PNA stated 10% of 911 sales in NA will be GT3's. Last year they sold 0ver 16,000 911's in NA.

Mike in CA

The 10% is right but I don't think 16,000 is correct for NA. US and Canadian sales totaled a bit over 9100 911's last year and are on pace for about 11,000 this year.

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01...s-figures.html

Mike in CA

Sorry, yeah, US (NA) number.

Nick

Mike according to the charts in the link in 2012 584 911's were sold in Canada. Also, to my surprise only 8528 911's were sold in the US in 2012. Together total 911 sales for NA in 2012 are just over 9000. I attribute the low sales to the model change over.

Macca

I know a little bit about this and suggest you will start to read this coming year that Porsche is seriously struggling to manufacture the volume of cars it wishes to due to physical and step function constraints and new model line introduction impact on resources and working capital. Porsche will go through a massive growth phase over the next 5 years gearing up for volumes that will take them through 200000 annual units but during the life cycle of the 991 GT3/RS indeed the opposite will be the case and Porsche will not meet demand for this generation. Perhaps for Gen 2 cars the flood gates will open. Its no secret at least within the dealer network and PAG that the factory is already furiously juggling initial production, starting later than had hoped on RHD production and with a very modest total production in 2013 with 2014 allocations still being worked on due to other model line introductions. If the economy globally and in Europe continues to recover in 2014/15 we may see the factory seriously under pressure but the bean counters there are also very concerned that emerging markets and tiger economies could massively slow down in 2014/15 putting a significant hole in sales projections and profitability forecasts....

We live in uncertain times The only certain thing is if you dont have your name on a GT3 allocation today already its increasingly unlikely you will get a car...

Mike in CA

That's possible Nick, but you'll also note that at no time in the last 10 years have they sold more than 13,000 911's in NA.

Tacet-Conundrum

Maybe if they put front-end lift as standard on all the cars that would be a.start.

Mike in CA

Macca, I think that's a very astute analysis.

Macca

Hi Mike. I made a small mistake there.

I should have said "Porsche are struggling to manufacture the volume of cars (not 911's) it wishes due to....."

I think you will find that the volume of 911s manufactured has been falling for some time, especially as a % of sales.

Last year (2012) I believe Porsche produced around 22000 911 globally. So if APs comment holds true we will see approximately 2200 991 GT3 manufactured in 2013/2014. The RS usually runs around 1200-1400 units. It is not dissimilar to previous years although the geographic distribution I suspect will be different form before.

I cant understand why anyone with even a passing interest in buying the GT3 didn't stick their name on an order list 6-12 months ago. I was so paranoid from stories for friends about missing out on prior generations of GT3 (only 14-16 units come to NZ per production run!) that I put my name on the list an a deposit to commercially bind the transaction in Sept 2012. You can always cancel....

fbirch

If demand for the regular 911 is softening somewhat, while demand for the new GT3 is surging, I’d be surprised if Porsche didn’t shift a higher % of total 911 production to the GT3. AP’s 10% figure was likely based on marketing expectations and past demand history, not some absolute % limit set by upper management. VW owns Porsche, and they have one mission in life. If that mission can be furthered by building a higher proportion of GT3’s, I suspect that’s exactly what they’ll do.

Macca

Its a nice idea but my sources at PAG tell me the opposite is indeed true.

Overall 911 numbers have been in decline as a percentage of production in the last 10 years partly as a result of the GFC, although with regards to the "BRIC" countries Porsche has had a windfall with their other product lines in the last 3-4 years, as volumes of products suitable to those markets (Cayenne & Panamera primarily) increasing in sales volume.

Below are the 2010, 2011 and 2012 numbers for the 911 taken directly from the published annual reports. You will see a big drop off in 2011 as the old model was run through and the new 991 was launched (didnt start shipping until Sept 2011). This is the usual trend over a model change year. Note these are not sales volumes but production volumes (which are lower).

By comparison average production volumes in years 2007/08/09 were around 30,000 unit pa for 911.

When AP said 10% he really meant 10%. That would be a ceiling. That's actually up from previous GT3 releases which ranged from 6-8% of total production.

2013 production is predicted to be in line with 2012 (say approx 25000 units). The challenge for the factory are the significant increase in sales of Pana/Cayenne and also new Boxster/Cayman to growth markets such as Asia, UAE & Russia. Then there is the new Macan in the 2013/14 FY!

Im not 100% sure how many 997.2 GT3 were produced in the PAG Fiscal year but suggest around 2200 units which at the time would have equated to 7.3% of production.

If the 991 GT3 does make it to 10% of 2013/14 FY production then expect around 2200-2400 production units.