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When Will Allocations Pick Back Up

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Old 09-14-2023, 10:52 PM
  #16  
shrimp money
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Rumor is that another bank is exiting the auto loan business tomorrow, and they’re partnered with over 3,000 dealers.


Maybe that will help allocations.
Old 09-14-2023, 10:52 PM
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MY24 production began months ago. There are already RL members with 24s in hand,
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Old 09-14-2023, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by nyca
One good black swan economic event and things will normalize quickly. That said, Porsche is losing total sales with the current 911 market. For every faithful customer willing to wait 2 years for an allocation, many other possible customers just walk away when they hear that. Now you can say Porsche doesn't care, but orders they can't fulfill are orders and revenue lost. They could make 20% more 911s and still sell them for msrp.
Ferrari’s order books are full, and they could sell more, but aren’t expanding production.


If you’re into guns, this comes up during every panic run on ammunition. Everyone says, why aren’t the plants expanding, they could sell soooo much more ammo right now. And then what happens? Eventually people stop buying anything and everything, and it returns to normal, or a huge decrease in demand.
Old 09-14-2023, 11:35 PM
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Between the lack of allocations and the UAW strike deterring alternatives maybe it’s time to start looking at train schedules.
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Old 09-14-2023, 11:48 PM
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Originally Posted by nyca
One good black swan economic event and things will normalize quickly. That said, Porsche is losing total sales with the current 911 market. For every faithful customer willing to wait 2 years for an allocation, many other possible customers just walk away when they hear that. Now you can say Porsche doesn't care, but orders they can't fulfill are orders and revenue lost. They could make 20% more 911s and still sell them for msrp.

considering they are now public and need to increase sales especially now with Tesla cannibalizing ev revenue by slashing prices, I am curious as to how porsche plan on making money.

maybe increase prices across the board and maintain lower output hoping people will still buy? But surely that would have a short shelf life right? But who knows.

Their stock dropped 15% in the last 6 months though overall positive YOY at ~2.5%. I wonder what will happen if Ferrari or McLaren decide to bring back manuals.
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Old 09-15-2023, 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted by malba2366
I have read in a few places that production of the 718 models has been moved away from Stuttgart to a VW factory. This will free up capacity in Stuttgart, whether this means more 911 production, more Taycan production or a little bit of both is not really public information.
I know Porsche is pushing Taycans very hard - but the used Taycan market had been surprisingly weak (used Taycan Turbos can be had for surprising prices considering they were originally $180k and up), while the used 911 market is still overheated (especially 991.2 and later, plus higher-end 997 models). Porsche will sell every 911 they make even at the new and higher price points. Despite the $30-40k lower prices on the mid-engine models, 911s have outsold Boxsters and Caymans combined as far back as anyone can remember. Since the Taycan is a different production line, one probably has little to do with the other except if they need to reassign workers to support increased 911 production.

Last edited by Roadworrier; 09-15-2023 at 12:15 AM.
Old 09-15-2023, 12:21 AM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by shrimp money
Ferrari’s order books are full, and they could sell more, but aren’t expanding production.
But they have always had that business model - they consider themselves the "top of the food chain", there is no where else for their customers to go (in their view), so they can make it work. Mercedes used to be like that many years ago, they couldn't sustain it. I agree that in the current post-COVID mania, even Hyundai thinks they can be Ferrari, every manufacturer is chasing the "high end customer" which is why a Ford pickup truck costs $72K now.
Old 09-15-2023, 12:52 AM
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Originally Posted by nyca
But they have always had that business model - they consider themselves the "top of the food chain", there is no where else for their customers to go (in their view), so they can make it work. Mercedes used to be like that many years ago, they couldn't sustain it. I agree that in the current post-COVID mania, even Hyundai thinks they can be Ferrari, every manufacturer is chasing the "high end customer" which is why a Ford pickup truck costs $72K now.
It's more a byproduct of JIT manufacturing than all marques moving up market.
Old 09-15-2023, 01:29 AM
  #24  
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Easy answer,
somewhere between now, and the end of time.

I don't really think brands want it to be fixed, record profits, without having to compete with discounts and incentives.
Really stinks if you want a car, really great if you already own one.
Old 09-15-2023, 01:53 AM
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Originally Posted by nyca
One good black swan economic event and things will normalize quickly. That said, Porsche is losing total sales with the current 911 market. For every faithful customer willing to wait 2 years for an allocation, many other possible customers just walk away when they hear that. Now you can say Porsche doesn't care, but orders they can't fulfill are orders and revenue lost. They could make 20% more 911s and still sell them for msrp.
They’re losing nothing. The 911 production model is almost like the golden ratio. The profit margin is lower on 911s than other models,so their bread and butter SUV/EV get priority for production increases.
Old 09-15-2023, 07:03 AM
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Originally Posted by shrimp money
Rumor is that another bank is exiting the auto loan business tomorrow, and they’re partnered with over 3,000 dealers.


Maybe that will help allocations.
Higher interest rates haven’t dampened 911 demand at all. I know that it aggravates the HENRYs, but the reality is that a lot of people are clearly paying for these cars in cash.
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Old 09-15-2023, 08:36 AM
  #27  
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Well, clearly the execs at Porsche and VAG need to be reading this thread to learn from the experts how their business model is flawed. It must be sheer luck that they are the most profitable car manufacturer, when they clearly are doing it all wrong and leaving money on the table.
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Old 09-15-2023, 08:49 AM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by detansinn
Higher interest rates haven’t dampened 911 demand at all. I know that it aggravates the HENRYs, but the reality is that a lot of people are clearly paying for these cars in cash.

Agreed.
Old 09-15-2023, 09:59 AM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by detansinn
Porsche is not increasing 911 production.
There will be no increase in allocations.
There is a long line of people waiting for an available allocation and plenty willing to pay above sticker to grab one.

Porsche likes this status quo. It keeps 911 values high and increases desirability, because the cars are harder to get.
Very true. And PAG is winding down 992.1 production, so I imagine the next bump in allocations will have to wait for 992.2. But even then, it’s not going to be anything substantial. .
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Old 09-15-2023, 10:44 AM
  #30  
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Not that I understand it completely, but I thought (at least to a degree) that 911 production numbers are limited to a small percentage of the PAG fleet due to CO2 phaseout programs...meaning they have to "earn" the ability to manufacture a 911 (or any ICE unit) by way of selling a certain percentage of EVs to offset their fleet CO2 footprint. If true, this may limit allocations as much if not more than production capability.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...rs-2023-03-28/


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