CAlexio

Jim Glickenhaus just NAILED it.. THIS is what is going to exist long after the world has gone all electric and driverless.

he's going to make a killing with this thing. good for him.

bliq00

People doubted they could get a sports car off the ground 10 years ago. Then they doubted they could build a sedan, then they doubted Tesla could build a viable SUV, then they doubted they could build a small sedan. As I see it, I have no reason to doubt Tesla can build this new roadster, what reason, exactly does anyone have to doubt Tesla's capabilities? It may take a while but right now, they're batting 1.000.

misterwaterfall

That's not true. They lose money and are going to get smoked if this new tax package passes and their wellfare is cut. This roadster was simply a cash raise, that's it. I like the vision but the company hasn't proven that they can hit a deadline or make money.

They also continue to hide major recalls and service issues, another bad sign.

Mussl Kar

Some day we will pine for the sub optimally designed semiconductor chopper circuits screaming through the motor coils launching at 12 khz for sub 2 second 0-60. Much like the straight cut gears Porsche used for more performance "ambiance" in their GT series. Flux capacitors will become so passe. Exhaust tuners will need to evolve to hand wound coils and custom laminated super caps, or die. Quick tune? Just an app and when paid the shop owner will call up your order/car, confirm, then tap his cell phone on your bumper.

daveo4porsche

please cite your references - they are burning cash at a horrindous rate building for the Model 3 - but they have 20-25% margins on Model S's - and the govt. substitutes aren't there anymore

so again what's the math - now the S/X are not a large enough business s- but by themselves they could be profitable - it's all the other pursuits and capital that makes them lose money.

ipse dixit

Does it come with at MT?

WenigerAberBeser

Tesla’s financial reporting practices are not apples to apples with other auto companies. Tesla does not include R&D in their gross margin but other like GM, Ford, BMW, Mazda do. Once you factor i. R&D, Tesla has the lowest GM% among other major car companies. Tesla also has the highest SG&A as a % of rev compared to the same cohort and basically wipes out all profit before R&D is even considered. Also, Tesla’s SG&A rise comparably to revenues so they are not getting economies of scale as they grow. On top of that, they have heavy interest expense through all of the debt they’ve taken.

Based on past performance, it seems inevitable that in order to finance its expansion Tesla will have to incur either more debt or emit more shares. It will not come from revenues and gross margin.


This is all public data.

daveo4porsche

I agree they will need to raise more money - but they are growing and burning cash - like many many other startups disrupting existing industries…that doesn't mean they will never be profitable it just means they aren't yet running efficiently as they grow…if that was a metric for large successful companies most of Silly-con valley wouldn't exist…

I agree they aren't run well - and I also agree they are much closer than most people realize to being out of business - but they are pulling something off no said was possible - I don't think Porsche would be doing the mission-E without Tesla nipping at their heels - and their product is actually quite good - simply ask anyone who owns one - you won't be able to get them to shut up…so there is something there that goes beyond the $$$ - but yeah the Model 3 is make or break for them and it's not yet going well.

The Roadster is interesting to me - but 100% vaporware and Elon lies alot. But I'll take a serious look when he ships it in 2022…

the mean time my 2018 GT3 exits the factory on March 16th...I'm looking forward to that.

daveo4porsche

EV's don't have transmissions - don't need them.

ftlaud911

I actually still have mine. Also got the RC12 as well. Both sitting in a box in the garage. Thought about getting them running again....lol

gago1101

EVs with no transmissions are fine. But you know where this is headed, right? Soon, and I mean very soon, cars will not need a driver for the fastest lap at the track. It's not far fetched to think this Tesla sports car could have some track oriented autopilot. It's the future, but it also means the end of humans driving cars in general. Learning to drive a car will be like learning horseback riding.

Archimedes

Not comparable at all. Amazon was creating an insanely valuable competitive advantage that will allow it to dominate an industry. Tesla has done nothing of the sort. They have no advantage at all other than first mover, which they haven’t done much with. They don’t even own their battery technology. Within two years they’ll have a ton of competition from a dozen different auto companies who know how to manufacture great cars profitably.

http://fortune.com/2016/09/13/tesla-...ty-jim-chanos/

download the slide deck from this article if you want a good summary of the reality of Tesla http://nordic.businessinsider.com/st...rence-2016-12/

Archimedes

Nonsense. People said they could never build what they described, at the price point they promised and in the time frame they promised. So far, Tesla is batting zero on that front; every single vehicle has been late and all of them have been more expensive to buy. Remember the original price of the Model S was supposed to be $55,000? And it was supposed to be out two years earlier? The only reason Tesla is alive and has actually been able to stay in business is because they've had access to an endless supply of cheap money and they were lucky enough to come of age in this ridiculously Fed manipulated bull market.

RSUV

My company has large auto industry interests and as part of that, it is important for us to have a decent idea of where things like EV and driverless cars will go. We have reached a few conclusions only;

- EV is not a threat to the automobile as we know it; for 125 years new technology, including power trains, has come and gone, killing old brands and creating new ones. The same will keep happening meaning no-one is safe and no new manufacturer is automatically doomed.

- EV growth is mainly being regulation-driven. This will limit its growth by the mainstream manufacturers to producing as few as they need to meet regulations (circa 30% by 2030) because they cannot currently make profit from them - that goes to the battery producer. Until.....

-....EVs become a better solution for customers. If technology can allow this then EV supply will become demand driven, which is a far more compelling and effective way to get manufacturers to grasp the nettle. It is unlikely that EVs will ever suit all customers but you could expect perhaps a 70% take-up if EV overcomes it’s present issues and ICE do not get ‘outlawed’.

- The prospect of those wanting to drive a gasoline powered sports car having to sacrifice speed against the normal car population is ironic. “Why is Fred always late?” “Oh, he drives a Porsche!” It is no doubt true that some will prefer engine noise and vibration to the electric motor but many won’t. We will be like those guys driving vintage cars that only share similarities with our sports cars in that they have four wheels and burn petrol. In all other ways the cars have nothing to do with each other. A change of self-image beckons I fear!

- The real ‘threat’ to cars as we know them is not EV but driverless vehicles. This subject is much harder to predict and far more scary for the industry. It could change everything.

- DV will feed a generation of lawyers, answering questions like “do we have a right to drive what car we want ourselves if we put other road users in peril?” And “Can we allow a robotised car to drive people who are incapable?”

- The outcome of all the legal stuff needs to be predicted first. But assuming the answers to the above questions are ‘no’ and ‘yes’ (which i’m not at all sure they will be), the need to own a car starts to become weaker. Just hail a car, wherever you are and pay for the journey you make. We already know that cars lie idle for 95% of their life, it will be much cheaper this way.

- Therefore, the only people who will own a car will be those wealthy enough to suffer the inconvenience and cost of owning a car because they just want to.

- Brand of car becomes almost irrelevant but who the service provider is, does become relevant. Swap that Merc badge for an Uber one.

- I mentioned before about customer preference being the best driver for change. Here are just two reasons, there are many more; 1. Journey cost will be heavily reduced. 2. 150mph autodrive lanes could give you the ability to avoid traffic and arrive much quicker - like trains on the road.


There are a hundred reasons why some or all of this might happen differently. But the lack of predictability is an issue, and it means, just like when the iPhone arrived, existing firms may not be adequately prepared for the changes and some very surprising names could literally disappear. No-one, not even Porsche is exempt. History is littered with the demise of huge car brands.

Marv

I think it will revolutionize and you and I will likely be dragged into the new world kicking and screaming.

Cities and countries are already producing legislation to ban internal combustion engines in the coming years. One might simply say that the impact for us is little or none, but this will impact the supply chain and when fuel prices start doubling and tripling as more and more fuel based cars are abandoned for alternate fuels, the cost of ownership of a high-performance, fuel gobbling, car will take its toll.

Additionally, as more and more mainstream traffic is shifted to electric and autonomous cars, there will be restrictions as to where you can drive manually operated fuel cars on public roads. Eventually the tracks will be the last frontier for driving as we know and love it.

Oh, and as much as I have a love/hate for autonomous vehicles... The upside is the majority of bad drivers will be removed from the road as the become passengers. The flip side is that autonomous vehicles and manually driven cars will not mix well and at some point in time there will be a swelling legislation push to eliminate as much as the manual driven cars as possible.

The only retarding factor to such a takeover isn't the technology right now, that's already here, but the 264 million currently registered vehicles in the USA. That's a lot of cars and some very big industries behind them to obsolete.

Interesting times, no?