OT: 0-60mph in 1.9 sec. for $200k. How does Tesla Roadster Change Things?
11-21-2017, 03:46 AM
#151
Rennlist Member
Allow me a brief sidetrack for a candid moment.
It seems clear that any mention on Telsa brings out a political (almost religious) fervor, as though many have mentally either shorted or gone long on Telsa stock. However the key to smart investing it objectivity.
As the CTO and technical founder of a VC backed technology startup in the energy space that's currently worth half a billion and counting I kid myself that I have some perspective on this subject. I also own an electric car (not a Tesla) and know a number of people involved in the business (including a Tesla founder). A few thoughts on some of the themes mentioned here:
1. "Telsa's business model is a pyramid scheme". Venture backed startups are unnatural. They are high risk, high reward, and by definition ahead of their time. If the mainstream "gets it" someone would have done it already. The model is to put resources behind businesses others don't see as viable in order to get a significant market lead. In other words the conflict on display here is inevitable: if everyone agreed Telsa was great it wouldn't be Venture.
2. "Telsa is not executing well". I've made the mistake of believing this as well. Back when Tesla launched the roadster they kept braking 2 speed gearboxes leading to reliability issues and delays. They contracted two outside firms to make new gearboxes at incredible expense but neither were able to. Eventually they flushed that money down the toilet and dropped the two-speed gearbox entirely. It was a clear engineering failure and the wasted money was appalling. I feel two lessons should be learned, however: One must first keep in mind that setbacks are not just unavoidable but required when you're pushing the limits at this rate, and the only way to avoid exposing customers to them is to slow down. Second is that one shouldn't only focus on the current apparent issue (ie battery production issues on the Model 3). At the time Telsa was dealing with those gearbox issues they were actually focusing their real effort on finalizing the Model S, a car that the industry still hasn't caught up to nearly 5 years later. From my perspective Tesla has executed well overall. With an inside perspective I can name a dozen mistakes, but generally their failures are the types of errors they should be making for a company in their position. (Their insistence on complete vertical integration excepted IMHO.)
3. "Telsa's been successful due to government subsidies". Largely agreed, but that's what subsidies are for. Tesla's turned that government investment into a significant, durable lead. A supercharger network that's the envy of other manufactures and will take significant time and money to replicate. Vertically integrated battery manufacture than will give them a long-term cost advantage. A strong brand with many satisfied customers (where are all the dissatisfied customers if it's so crap?). Proof of their success is that many German luxury brands are both openly envious and threatened, admitting they took their eye off the ball and must now play catch-up. If it's successful in breaking into that market the government's investment will look like a bargain, particularly when compared to other countries efforts (ie China's ongoing $1 Billion plus per quarter purchase of the Photovoltaic panel market). And at the end of the Telsa investment signs suggest to me (and the market, apparently) Tesla will have built a durable business that stands on its own two feet.
4. "Elon Musk is a charlatan". Do I believe him when he announces a ship date? Not in the slightest. But like many great leaders he clearly reaches for the stars and then settles for the moon. Steve Jobs was no different (internal to Apple). Adrian Newey (genius F1 car aerodynamicist and designer) is notorious for over-reaching: the engineers working with him add 20% in strength to whatever parts he specifies. And much like Musk the results still beat the competition (given an engine, anyway). Results speak for themselves across multiple industries, though the guys clearly also makes mistakes.
5. "Tesla stock is over-valued". Yes. Of course with a stock price like that and accesses to enough cheap capitol things begin to become a self-fulfilling prophesy.
6. "Electric will never work long term, fuel cells are the future, etc". Being in the technology business and making a living largely by my technical crystal ball I can't agree. I could always be wrong and perhaps you believe yourself better positioned, but I get paid well to do this and technically I believe the writing's on the wall. The world crossed 10 GW of PV installed (cumulatively) in 2008. In 2017 alone we're installing over 100 GW, roughly 10% of peak total US demand, and PV has become the cheapest source of electricity in much of the world. IMHO electric vehicles are perfectly positioned to take advantage of that technical shift.
So to me many of the comments here sound like spin and parroting rather than consider criticism by individuals with an informed perspective on the field. As a technology professional in a tangentially related area I feel I understand better than most what Musk has accomplished, and while he's undoubtedly highly flawed I feel many of those attacking him are very far off in the weeds with some of their comments. We shall see how things play out, but I'll point out that most shorting detractors would have long since lost any bankroll to put their money where their mouths are.
It seems clear that any mention on Telsa brings out a political (almost religious) fervor, as though many have mentally either shorted or gone long on Telsa stock. However the key to smart investing it objectivity.
As the CTO and technical founder of a VC backed technology startup in the energy space that's currently worth half a billion and counting I kid myself that I have some perspective on this subject. I also own an electric car (not a Tesla) and know a number of people involved in the business (including a Tesla founder). A few thoughts on some of the themes mentioned here:
1. "Telsa's business model is a pyramid scheme". Venture backed startups are unnatural. They are high risk, high reward, and by definition ahead of their time. If the mainstream "gets it" someone would have done it already. The model is to put resources behind businesses others don't see as viable in order to get a significant market lead. In other words the conflict on display here is inevitable: if everyone agreed Telsa was great it wouldn't be Venture.
2. "Telsa is not executing well". I've made the mistake of believing this as well. Back when Tesla launched the roadster they kept braking 2 speed gearboxes leading to reliability issues and delays. They contracted two outside firms to make new gearboxes at incredible expense but neither were able to. Eventually they flushed that money down the toilet and dropped the two-speed gearbox entirely. It was a clear engineering failure and the wasted money was appalling. I feel two lessons should be learned, however: One must first keep in mind that setbacks are not just unavoidable but required when you're pushing the limits at this rate, and the only way to avoid exposing customers to them is to slow down. Second is that one shouldn't only focus on the current apparent issue (ie battery production issues on the Model 3). At the time Telsa was dealing with those gearbox issues they were actually focusing their real effort on finalizing the Model S, a car that the industry still hasn't caught up to nearly 5 years later. From my perspective Tesla has executed well overall. With an inside perspective I can name a dozen mistakes, but generally their failures are the types of errors they should be making for a company in their position. (Their insistence on complete vertical integration excepted IMHO.)
3. "Telsa's been successful due to government subsidies". Largely agreed, but that's what subsidies are for. Tesla's turned that government investment into a significant, durable lead. A supercharger network that's the envy of other manufactures and will take significant time and money to replicate. Vertically integrated battery manufacture than will give them a long-term cost advantage. A strong brand with many satisfied customers (where are all the dissatisfied customers if it's so crap?). Proof of their success is that many German luxury brands are both openly envious and threatened, admitting they took their eye off the ball and must now play catch-up. If it's successful in breaking into that market the government's investment will look like a bargain, particularly when compared to other countries efforts (ie China's ongoing $1 Billion plus per quarter purchase of the Photovoltaic panel market). And at the end of the Telsa investment signs suggest to me (and the market, apparently) Tesla will have built a durable business that stands on its own two feet.
4. "Elon Musk is a charlatan". Do I believe him when he announces a ship date? Not in the slightest. But like many great leaders he clearly reaches for the stars and then settles for the moon. Steve Jobs was no different (internal to Apple). Adrian Newey (genius F1 car aerodynamicist and designer) is notorious for over-reaching: the engineers working with him add 20% in strength to whatever parts he specifies. And much like Musk the results still beat the competition (given an engine, anyway). Results speak for themselves across multiple industries, though the guys clearly also makes mistakes.
5. "Tesla stock is over-valued". Yes. Of course with a stock price like that and accesses to enough cheap capitol things begin to become a self-fulfilling prophesy.
6. "Electric will never work long term, fuel cells are the future, etc". Being in the technology business and making a living largely by my technical crystal ball I can't agree. I could always be wrong and perhaps you believe yourself better positioned, but I get paid well to do this and technically I believe the writing's on the wall. The world crossed 10 GW of PV installed (cumulatively) in 2008. In 2017 alone we're installing over 100 GW, roughly 10% of peak total US demand, and PV has become the cheapest source of electricity in much of the world. IMHO electric vehicles are perfectly positioned to take advantage of that technical shift.
So to me many of the comments here sound like spin and parroting rather than consider criticism by individuals with an informed perspective on the field. As a technology professional in a tangentially related area I feel I understand better than most what Musk has accomplished, and while he's undoubtedly highly flawed I feel many of those attacking him are very far off in the weeds with some of their comments. We shall see how things play out, but I'll point out that most shorting detractors would have long since lost any bankroll to put their money where their mouths are.
11-21-2017, 07:05 AM
#152
This thread will be a fascinating read in a few years time. That people can look at the current environment and suggest EV is not the future is astounding. I have no fixed views on Telsa, and I cant stand EV cars, but they absolutely will wipe the floor with petrol/gas based cars in the future. If youre not convinced, talk to young people about what cars excite them, and then look at whats in the pipelines of all the major manufacturers.
- fuel cell may be a better technology but so was the Beta video recorder
- EV cars through load shifting deliver a net reduction in peak load requirements
- PVs and other renewables are growing exponentially
- key markets such as Europe, California, and China are driving to zero emissions
Its a done deal, if you havent realised this you havent analysed the environment well enough.
- fuel cell may be a better technology but so was the Beta video recorder
- EV cars through load shifting deliver a net reduction in peak load requirements
- PVs and other renewables are growing exponentially
- key markets such as Europe, California, and China are driving to zero emissions
Its a done deal, if you havent realised this you havent analysed the environment well enough.
11-21-2017, 08:07 AM
#153
My god, we really do need a sarcasm button eh?.. could I make the joking more obvious by saying it would fly? And to answer your question... no deposit. I m not an early adopter and while I ve ridden in a tesla, I prefer to wait for multiple iterations of a car to see that it works before jumping on.
Damn it, you exposed me!.. all these years building this image as a diehard NA & Manual transmission undercover persona, and I finally go active as a TSLA stock promoter and you caught me. Argh... foiled again!!!
Ok. Seriously though, you re new here, I get it.
But I m quite confused how any tesla slinger like me would get paid by tax dollars.. that part I actually take you seriously on and find intriguing
Also... both of you read Petevb s post above, when he writes, it s usually quite instructive. The tesla story, the electric car revolution, the power of growing an impossible idea.. cool concepts to explore, not disdain because you don t understand them.
Damn it, you exposed me!.. all these years building this image as a diehard NA & Manual transmission undercover persona, and I finally go active as a TSLA stock promoter and you caught me. Argh... foiled again!!!
Ok. Seriously though, you re new here, I get it.
But I m quite confused how any tesla slinger like me would get paid by tax dollars.. that part I actually take you seriously on and find intriguing
Also... both of you read Petevb s post above, when he writes, it s usually quite instructive. The tesla story, the electric car revolution, the power of growing an impossible idea.. cool concepts to explore, not disdain because you don t understand them.
we do need a sarcasm button
11-21-2017, 11:10 AM
#155
11-21-2017, 12:02 PM
#156
Rennlist Member
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
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Yup, Pete's posts are always well-informed and informative. 'When Pete talks, people listen'. 
11-21-2017, 12:06 PM
#157
Pete, my guess is you work at a solar panel company that may be valued at a half billion but has probably never had positive cash flow. So your comments likely need to be taken with a grain of salt. EV's may or may not become the norm (I don't believe they will) IC engines will continue to get more efficient and that technology will not go down without a fight.
If EV's do become more popular, the competition will be fierce. Are you going to buy a Tesla or a significantly better engineered Porsche, Audi, MB, GM, or Japanese electric car?
If EV's do become more popular, the competition will be fierce. Are you going to buy a Tesla or a significantly better engineered Porsche, Audi, MB, GM, or Japanese electric car?
11-21-2017, 12:13 PM
#158
I'd really like to know how you can have a range of 620 miles on a car that does 0-60 in 1.9 seconds*.
Something tells me that there will be an asterisk in that claim.
Elon seems to get bored easily, and jumps around from one project to another.
Tesla just got done burning thru $1.4 BILLION of cash in Q3 and for the first time in the company's history, Musk was actually speechless for 12 straight seconds (during their recent earnings conference call) in regards to a comment by a security analyst who remarked about how this is the first time that he's ever heard Musk wanting to "throttle back" production and become capital outlay conscious. Tesla has had all kinds of production issues and has been unable to execute.
This sportscar seems to be more "pie in the sky".
2020?
I'll believe it when I see it.
IMO, that's a very tall order... especially given the company's cash burn, labor issues, supply chain issues, and inability to execute and meet production estimates.
The only thing that is keeping them alive are idiots in the high-yield market who think that loaning Tesla money at 5% is a great deal. In fact,
Tesla's financial engineering has been almost as brilliant as their automotive design.
But let's face it, they had $3.5 billion in unrestricted cash on hand at the end of September. That means that within just 2 quarters, they will be once again tapping the high-yield debt market in the U.S. which is filled with a bunch of idiots who have nothing better to do but lend Tesla money at 5%, even though they have a nearly $10 Billion debt load, including convertibles. In Europe, investors will pony up to buy those bonds at half that 5% return. - - - But at some point, the music stops in the high-yield market and everyone wonders where their chair is. Musk might have to raise more capital via selling stock in a secondary offering.... and that won't be good for the share price.
Meanwhile, the company is skipping the traditional practice long held by industry norms of testing a new model's production line by building vehicles with relatively cheap prototype tools designed to be scrapped once they deliver doors that fit, body panels with the right shape, and dashboards that don't have gaps or seams. Tesla is skipping this preliminary step and order permanent, more expensive equipment as it races to launch the Model 3. This is obviously a HUGE risk.
Tesla is extremely challenged right now, to say the least.
They are taking way too long to get their cars to the market place.
Even Musk admitted that they probably shouldn't have made the "X" and should have just modified the Model S.
The parts and features on the "X" were terribly difficult to build... and really wound up costing Tesla in many many ways.
In the meantime, other automakers in the EV/Hybrid space are building a ton of momentum and may pass Tesla like they are standing still.
Let's revisit this thread in a year.
Last edited by Diablo Dude; 11-21-2017 at 01:50 PM.
11-21-2017, 12:29 PM
#159
Re ICE getting more efficient, they've been managing to squeeze a bit over 1% more mechanical energy per year out of a gallon of gas over the last 20 years. Meanwhile the cost of electricity from PV has been declining at over 10% per year. The most recent record power purchase agreement for PV came in a 1.79 cents per kwh, likely roughly 1/10th of what you're paying on your electric bill. Projecting the math is fairly straightforward.
11-21-2017, 12:50 PM
#160
Pete, since you're in the energy business, is there any hope of a second coming of the combustion engine where it would be powered by hydrogen, which burns like a mother****er and should make for some pretty awesome power unit?
That's what I was thought hydrogen cars were going to be, not some lame-*** mini electric power plants inside the car.
That's what I was thought hydrogen cars were going to be, not some lame-*** mini electric power plants inside the car.
11-21-2017, 01:20 PM
#161
Bad guess. In fact we're in oil and gas, so Tesla's/ electric's success is not in our best interest. Selfishly I would wish that your prognostications about ICE winning played out, but the synergy between PV and EVs is causing the smart money to move towards quicker EV adoption, not slower. Batteries used in cars become grid connected peaking storage for PV at end of life, etc.
Re ICE getting more efficient, they've been managing to squeeze a bit over 1% more mechanical energy per year out of a gallon of gas over the last 20 years. Meanwhile the cost of electricity from PV has been declining at over 10% per year. The most recent record power purchase agreement for PV came in a 1.79 cents per kwh, likely roughly 1/10th of what you're paying on your electric bill. Projecting the math is fairly straightforward.
Re ICE getting more efficient, they've been managing to squeeze a bit over 1% more mechanical energy per year out of a gallon of gas over the last 20 years. Meanwhile the cost of electricity from PV has been declining at over 10% per year. The most recent record power purchase agreement for PV came in a 1.79 cents per kwh, likely roughly 1/10th of what you're paying on your electric bill. Projecting the math is fairly straightforward.
11-21-2017, 01:32 PM
#162
Pete, since you're in the energy business, is there any hope of a second coming of the combustion engine where it would be powered by hydrogen, which burns like a mother****er and should make for some pretty awesome power unit?
That's what I was thought hydrogen cars were going to be, not some lame-*** mini electric power plants inside the car.
That's what I was thought hydrogen cars were going to be, not some lame-*** mini electric power plants inside the car.
11-21-2017, 01:43 PM
#163
https://www.mema.org/big-oil-and-aut...bustion-engine
11-21-2017, 01:49 PM
#164
I ordered gt2 rs and i will order the roadster for sure it looks amazing in performance!
anyway iam a bit worried about the cash flow gestion of Tesla so i will wait, for sure on two years it will be more easy to get it VS gt2 rs i guess !
my opinion is that Tesla will be sold to apple or apple will buy a big part of tesla on the next two years...
anyway iam a bit worried about the cash flow gestion of Tesla so i will wait, for sure on two years it will be more easy to get it VS gt2 rs i guess !
my opinion is that Tesla will be sold to apple or apple will buy a big part of tesla on the next two years...
11-21-2017, 01:52 PM
#165
They are getting very serious. Mercedes is moving forward with 10+ model EV package that re-uses car batteries for grid connected storage, allowing them to significantly reduce overall costs by using the same cells and power management system multiple times. The complete effort looks like a tens of billions commitment that they only recently prioritized. Market forces have shifted faster than they'd initially anticipated.