OT: 0-60mph in 1.9 sec. for $200k. How does Tesla Roadster Change Things?
11-19-2017, 12:56 PM
#136
there are two levels of deposit
1. 250,000 "founders" level - limited to 1000 cars/reservations
2. 50,000 "base" level - no announced limit
both are $5,000 deposit online via credit card, remainder of deposit via wire transfer within 10 business days or you lose your "slot".
fully refundable as long as Tesla remain "solvent"…
again if you're serious about this - and really think Tesla will do well and be around to deliver the roadster - you'd probably be better of taking that same money and simply buying Tesla Stock - and using the money from the stock to buy a Roadster when it comes out - the risk is about hte same - if the stock tanks Tesla may not be able to refund your money - if it doesn't they should've done well enough 3 years from now that the stock will pay for the roadster and then some.
1. 250,000 "founders" level - limited to 1000 cars/reservations
2. 50,000 "base" level - no announced limit
both are $5,000 deposit online via credit card, remainder of deposit via wire transfer within 10 business days or you lose your "slot".
fully refundable as long as Tesla remain "solvent"…
again if you're serious about this - and really think Tesla will do well and be around to deliver the roadster - you'd probably be better of taking that same money and simply buying Tesla Stock - and using the money from the stock to buy a Roadster when it comes out - the risk is about hte same - if the stock tanks Tesla may not be able to refund your money - if it doesn't they should've done well enough 3 years from now that the stock will pay for the roadster and then some.
I dont think it's so binary. Another outcome is that TSLA still exists, makes the car -while stock has drifted 0-50% lower.
11-19-2017, 01:18 PM
#137
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While I've been defending the concept of EV sports cars and expressing confidence in Tesla's design capabilities, I should note that, at $200K+, I'm not interested in the Roadster. For that kind of money, I'd be more interested in something like a GT3 RS, which is fully trackworthy, can be fun on the road, and has a nice OTT presence. At closer to $100-130K, the Roadster would be a more appealing proposition.
11-19-2017, 03:26 PM
#138
Rennlist Member
11-20-2017, 08:05 PM
#141
Gonna be scraping Tesla owners off of a road near you before they can say "Doh!"
11-20-2017, 08:35 PM
#142
Drifting
11-20-2017, 08:39 PM
#143
11-20-2017, 08:54 PM
#144
11-20-2017, 11:03 PM
#146
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I did the math. 0 to 60 mph in 1.9 seconds gives an average acceleration of 1.44 G. When you consider that acceleration generally drops as speed increases, that means the acceleration from zero is even higher. And somehow the tires are providing that much grip. 
11-20-2017, 11:15 PM
#147
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A few observations:
(From Tesla web site) Q1 2017 number of US service centers-66. Twenty are in California.
Tesla hopes to add twenty to twenty-five more by end of 2017.
Wait time for soonest appointment- 22 to 60 days.
Per Tesla owners site, some quotes:" Model X owners seem to be needing multiple visits to service centers".
"Service centers seem to be surrounded by new, unsold Model S's".
"Service centers (most of the US ones) are running two shifts, into the night, and are working Saturdays, and some Sundays".
Questions: If Mr. Musk is telling the truth this time, Model 3 production will reach 5,000 cars per week by March 2018, increasing to 10,000 per week by end of 2018.
Conservatively, that's over 200,000 additional cars. Who will service these "maintenance-free" cars?
Mr. Musk has admitted (in a nationally-televised interview, that the Model 3 can't be bought for $35.000. He said the real number is $40.000. That was WITH the $7,500
subsidy. As of last month, Tesla had fewer than 97,000 subsidies left, to cover all models. The question is, is the Model 3 worth that money ($47,500) to the general car buying public?
As coal, natural gas, and oil produce the vast majority of electricity in the US, and will do so well into the future, and virtually all EV fans seem to have a pathological fear/hatred
of nuclear power, are Tesla present and future owners content to drive fossil fuel powered cars?
Lastly, for all proponents of EVs, there are around 250 MILLION gas/oil powered vehicles in the US. Where is the truly Brobdignagian additional electricity going to come from
to power them? Your wind mill? The roof of your Solar City-paneled house? France?
(From Tesla web site) Q1 2017 number of US service centers-66. Twenty are in California.
Tesla hopes to add twenty to twenty-five more by end of 2017.
Wait time for soonest appointment- 22 to 60 days.
Per Tesla owners site, some quotes:" Model X owners seem to be needing multiple visits to service centers".
"Service centers seem to be surrounded by new, unsold Model S's".
"Service centers (most of the US ones) are running two shifts, into the night, and are working Saturdays, and some Sundays".
Questions: If Mr. Musk is telling the truth this time, Model 3 production will reach 5,000 cars per week by March 2018, increasing to 10,000 per week by end of 2018.
Conservatively, that's over 200,000 additional cars. Who will service these "maintenance-free" cars?
Mr. Musk has admitted (in a nationally-televised interview, that the Model 3 can't be bought for $35.000. He said the real number is $40.000. That was WITH the $7,500
subsidy. As of last month, Tesla had fewer than 97,000 subsidies left, to cover all models. The question is, is the Model 3 worth that money ($47,500) to the general car buying public?
As coal, natural gas, and oil produce the vast majority of electricity in the US, and will do so well into the future, and virtually all EV fans seem to have a pathological fear/hatred
of nuclear power, are Tesla present and future owners content to drive fossil fuel powered cars?
Lastly, for all proponents of EVs, there are around 250 MILLION gas/oil powered vehicles in the US. Where is the truly Brobdignagian additional electricity going to come from
to power them? Your wind mill? The roof of your Solar City-paneled house? France?
11-21-2017, 12:08 AM
#148
Rennlist Member
Exactly one year ago I predicted Tesla would be insolvent sometime in 2018...the chickens are marching home. EV will die with Tesla. It's not the future, at least not on a large scale. Forget the intrinsic energy storage limitations associated with EV tech, the infrastructure required to allow EV to be prolific = TRILLIONS $$$. Nobody is investing trillions in a technology that accounts for <1% of market. Especially when there is a far superior alternative tech in the form of fuel cell technology. Which supersedes EV in virtually every metric. The US barely produces enough power as it is with our vastly antiquated electrical grid network. Imagine 100-200 million cars plugged in every night when the power needs are supposed to be at a fraction of the normal daytime usage. They better start replacing all the 711's with nuclear reactors...
11-21-2017, 02:18 AM
#149
Allow me a brief sidetrack for a candid moment.
It seems clear that any mention on Telsa brings out a political (almost religious) fervor, as though many have mentally either shorted or gone long on Telsa stock. However the key to smart investing is objectivity.
As the CTO and technical founder of a VC backed technology startup in the energy space that's currently worth half a billion and counting I kid myself that I have some perspective on this subject. I also own an electric car (not a Tesla) and know a number of people involved in the business (including a Tesla founder). A few thoughts on some of the themes mentioned here:
1. "Telsa's business model is a pyramid scheme". Venture backed startups are unnatural. They are high risk, high reward, and by definition ahead of their time. If the mainstream "gets it" someone would have done it already. The model is to put resources behind businesses others don't see as viable in order to get a significant market lead. In other words the conflict on display here is inevitable: if everyone agreed Telsa was great it wouldn't be Venture.
2. "Telsa is not executing well". I've made the mistake of believing this as well. Back when Tesla launched the roadster they kept braking 2 speed gearboxes leading to reliability issues and delays. They contracted two outside firms to make new gearboxes at incredible expense but neither were able to. Eventually they flushed that money down the toilet and dropped the two-speed gearbox entirely. It was a clear engineering failure and the wasted money was appalling. I feel two lessons should be learned, however: One must first keep in mind that setbacks are not just unavoidable but required when you're pushing the limits at this rate, and the only way to avoid exposing customers to them is to slow down. Second is that one shouldn't only focus on the current apparent issue (ie battery production issues on the Model 3). At the time Telsa was dealing with those gearbox issues they were actually focusing their real effort on finalizing the Model S, a car that the industry still hasn't caught up to nearly 5 years later. From my perspective Tesla has executed well overall. With an inside perspective I can name a dozen mistakes, but generally their failures are the types of errors they should be making for a company in their position. (Their insistence on complete vertical integration excepted IMHO.)
3. "Telsa's been successful due to government subsidies". Largely agreed, but that's what subsidies are for. Tesla's turned that government investment into a significant, durable lead. A supercharger network that's the envy of other manufactures and will take significant time and money to replicate. Vertically integrated battery manufacture than will give them a long-term cost advantage. A strong brand with many satisfied customers (where are all the dissatisfied customers if it's so crap?). Proof of their success is that many German luxury brands are both openly envious and threatened, admitting they took their eye off the ball and must now play catch-up. If it's successful in breaking into that market the government's investment will look like a bargain, particularly when compared to other countries efforts (ie China's ongoing $1 Billion plus per quarter purchase of the Photovoltaic panel market). And at the end of the Telsa investment signs suggest to me (and the market, apparently) Tesla will have built a durable business that stands on its own two feet.
4. "Elon Musk is a charlatan". Do I believe him when he announces a ship date? Not in the slightest. But like many great leaders he clearly reaches for the stars and then settles for the moon. Steve Jobs was no different (internal to Apple). Adrian Newey (genius F1 car aerodynamicist and designer) is notorious for over-reaching: the engineers working with him add 20% in strength to whatever parts he specifies. And much like Musk the results still beat the competition (given an engine, anyway). Results speak for themselves across multiple industries, though the guys clearly also makes mistakes.
5. "Tesla stock is over-valued". Yes. Of course with a stock price like that and accesses to enough cheap capitol things begin to become a self-fulfilling prophesy.
6. "Electric will never work long term, fuel cells are the future, etc". Being in the technology business and making a living largely by my technical crystal ball I can't agree. I could always be wrong and perhaps you believe yourself better positioned, but I get paid well to do this and technically I believe the writing's on the wall. The world crossed 10 GW of PV installed (cumulatively) in 2008. In 2017 alone we're installing over 100 GW, roughly 10% of peak total US demand, and PV has become the cheapest source of electricity in much of the world. IMHO electric vehicles are perfectly positioned to take advantage of that technical shift.
So to me many of the comments here sound like spin and parroting rather than consider criticism by individuals with an informed perspective on the field. As a technology professional in a tangentially related area I feel I understand better than most what Musk has accomplished, and while he's undoubtedly highly flawed I feel many of those attacking him are very far off in the weeds with some of their comments. We shall see how things play out, but I'll point out that most shorting detractors would have long since lost any bankroll to put their money where their mouths are.
It seems clear that any mention on Telsa brings out a political (almost religious) fervor, as though many have mentally either shorted or gone long on Telsa stock. However the key to smart investing is objectivity.
As the CTO and technical founder of a VC backed technology startup in the energy space that's currently worth half a billion and counting I kid myself that I have some perspective on this subject. I also own an electric car (not a Tesla) and know a number of people involved in the business (including a Tesla founder). A few thoughts on some of the themes mentioned here:
1. "Telsa's business model is a pyramid scheme". Venture backed startups are unnatural. They are high risk, high reward, and by definition ahead of their time. If the mainstream "gets it" someone would have done it already. The model is to put resources behind businesses others don't see as viable in order to get a significant market lead. In other words the conflict on display here is inevitable: if everyone agreed Telsa was great it wouldn't be Venture.
2. "Telsa is not executing well". I've made the mistake of believing this as well. Back when Tesla launched the roadster they kept braking 2 speed gearboxes leading to reliability issues and delays. They contracted two outside firms to make new gearboxes at incredible expense but neither were able to. Eventually they flushed that money down the toilet and dropped the two-speed gearbox entirely. It was a clear engineering failure and the wasted money was appalling. I feel two lessons should be learned, however: One must first keep in mind that setbacks are not just unavoidable but required when you're pushing the limits at this rate, and the only way to avoid exposing customers to them is to slow down. Second is that one shouldn't only focus on the current apparent issue (ie battery production issues on the Model 3). At the time Telsa was dealing with those gearbox issues they were actually focusing their real effort on finalizing the Model S, a car that the industry still hasn't caught up to nearly 5 years later. From my perspective Tesla has executed well overall. With an inside perspective I can name a dozen mistakes, but generally their failures are the types of errors they should be making for a company in their position. (Their insistence on complete vertical integration excepted IMHO.)
3. "Telsa's been successful due to government subsidies". Largely agreed, but that's what subsidies are for. Tesla's turned that government investment into a significant, durable lead. A supercharger network that's the envy of other manufactures and will take significant time and money to replicate. Vertically integrated battery manufacture than will give them a long-term cost advantage. A strong brand with many satisfied customers (where are all the dissatisfied customers if it's so crap?). Proof of their success is that many German luxury brands are both openly envious and threatened, admitting they took their eye off the ball and must now play catch-up. If it's successful in breaking into that market the government's investment will look like a bargain, particularly when compared to other countries efforts (ie China's ongoing $1 Billion plus per quarter purchase of the Photovoltaic panel market). And at the end of the Telsa investment signs suggest to me (and the market, apparently) Tesla will have built a durable business that stands on its own two feet.
4. "Elon Musk is a charlatan". Do I believe him when he announces a ship date? Not in the slightest. But like many great leaders he clearly reaches for the stars and then settles for the moon. Steve Jobs was no different (internal to Apple). Adrian Newey (genius F1 car aerodynamicist and designer) is notorious for over-reaching: the engineers working with him add 20% in strength to whatever parts he specifies. And much like Musk the results still beat the competition (given an engine, anyway). Results speak for themselves across multiple industries, though the guys clearly also makes mistakes.
5. "Tesla stock is over-valued". Yes. Of course with a stock price like that and accesses to enough cheap capitol things begin to become a self-fulfilling prophesy.
6. "Electric will never work long term, fuel cells are the future, etc". Being in the technology business and making a living largely by my technical crystal ball I can't agree. I could always be wrong and perhaps you believe yourself better positioned, but I get paid well to do this and technically I believe the writing's on the wall. The world crossed 10 GW of PV installed (cumulatively) in 2008. In 2017 alone we're installing over 100 GW, roughly 10% of peak total US demand, and PV has become the cheapest source of electricity in much of the world. IMHO electric vehicles are perfectly positioned to take advantage of that technical shift.
So to me many of the comments here sound like spin and parroting rather than consider criticism by individuals with an informed perspective on the field. As a technology professional in a tangentially related area I feel I understand better than most what Musk has accomplished, and while he's undoubtedly highly flawed I feel many of those attacking him are very far off in the weeds with some of their comments. We shall see how things play out, but I'll point out that most shorting detractors would have long since lost any bankroll to put their money where their mouths are.
Last edited by Petevb; 11-21-2017 at 11:56 AM.
11-21-2017, 03:25 AM
#150
Race Director
Thread Starter
Originally Posted by Guest89
How credulous can you be?
How much of a deposit have you put down?
How much of a deposit have you put down?
Originally Posted by Golden Boy
fake news working overtime. This guy is paid by tesla to post this stuff. Probably with our tax dollars
Ok. Seriously though, you’re new here, I get it.
But I’m quite confused how any tesla slinger like me would get paid by tax dollars.. that part I actually take you seriously on and find intriguing
Also... both of you read Petevb’s post above, when he writes, it’s usually quite instructive. The tesla story, the electric car revolution, the power of growing an impossible idea.. cool concepts to explore, not disdain because you don’t understand them.