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I'm not sure if people here don't understand inflation or don't believe it? The inflation calculators are using the data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics which tracks inflation. There's CPI and PPI which separates Consumer and Producer inflation. Inflation is an aggregate number across many different things: food, energy, etc... so not everything increased by the same amount. Inflation calculators simply show your buying power in dollars comparing across periods taking into account inflation. I'm old enough to remember when you could use quarters to buy a can of soda and now it's more like $1. As for 2% inflation, that's the US goal to drive consumption and production. Basically, if your buying power decreases annually at the target 2% then you're more likely to spend it than to hoard it since it's worth less (in buying power) over time.
it is getting a little strange.
i thought everyone knew money doubled every 10 years or so (inflation or buying power variance).
Thank you for confirming that you agree with many of the points that I made. You seemed like you wanted to get into an argument about pretty simple economic trends and historical data in regard to supply/demand/pricing and production numbers. I am in agreement that there are many cars sitting available online, because dealers couldn’t find enough takers who wanted to pay $75k ADM’s anymore… so they figured they would bring some of those allocations in, and list them as CPO cars. Many are still trying to get that $60-70k over MSRP by dangling the carrot with a car that’s actually available to pick up today from their dealership. As others have pointed out, some of those cars are incoming and likely sold. They aren’t even physically at the dealership yet.
The ADM market for touring is still pretty strong fetching $50k-$65k. The market for wing cars has softened to $25-50k by most dealerships.
This thread is just inaccurate that “MSRP is coming” and the market is crashing. ADM has shifted slightly, and market has softened a little bit. However, Bring a Trailer sales are getting strong and we are heading back into car season. GT3 production is going to start tapering off with the new models coming to production, and I still think there is a large wave of buyers who would buy EVERY SINGLE CPO car listed on the market if there was a one day sale at MSRP, or even $20k ADM.
Sorry if you feel I personally attacked you, but you’re just coming off as being overly confident in your market analysis that almost no one on this forum agrees with you on. It was not necessary to call you a window shopper, I do apologize… nothing personal.
Appreciate the tone shift and no hard feelings on the window shopper comment — I’ve been called worse.
I’ll agree with you that MSRP with zero dealer games isn’t coming tomorrow. What I’ve said consistently is that the trajectory is downward and the scarcity narrative that justified $75-100K ADMs is done. We clearly agree on that part since you’re acknowledging winged cars have softened to $25-50K and dealers can’t move cars at the old premiums.
Where we disagree is on where this lands. You think there’s a massive wave of buyers ready to absorb every car at $20K ADM. I think the data shows that wave is smaller than people assume — because if it weren’t, 300+ GT3 variants wouldn’t be sitting in inventory right now. Those aren’t all “incoming and sold” units. Many of those have been listed for weeks.
On Touring ADMs at $50-65K — that’s real, but it’s also the last holdout. Touring had a genuine supply constraint with Porsche doing a near 50/50 wing/Touring split on 992.2 production. But new Touring inventory just jumped 32% in a single pull. That pressure is coming.
I’m not rooting for a crash. I like GT cars and I want the ecosystem to be healthy. But I also think there are a lot of guys in this thread who bought at the peak and have a financial interest in the “these cars never come down” narrative. Being honest about where the market actually is isn’t bearish — it’s just accurate.
BaT is heating up heading into spring, you’re right about that. Let’s see where the numbers are in 90 days. That’ll settle it.
From: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
There comes a point where the car is just getting too expensive, and buyers will be getting concerned that the car won't hold value at such a high price point. I think we're getting close to that point, and a change of winds in the direction of the economy could put us there. No party goes on forever. My current build for a manual GT3 is $295k MSRP. That seems expensive to me, it's not $295k worth of car IMO.
As a Porsche owner for 20+ years, the 991/992 irrational exuberance has always felt unsustainable. What was once an enthusiast's brand has become a lifestyle brand and repeat business is more anchored in perception of scarcity, exclusivity and "can't lose money" then true brand/product affinity. Do we all think that when 911 GT values start softening, it won't accelerate the exodus out of this "asset class"? I can't tell you how many people I talk to at car related gatherings that are laser focused on "spec" as a value retention method vs. love of the cars. Those will be the people who TRY and dump at the first sign of trouble. Add to that the huge class of people who own these cars with money they don't have and I can see a perfect storm of market change. You're kind of already getting a preview of this with the GT4RS/SRS; once the darling of the IG set with $100k ADM's. Then production volume hit the saturation point, the IG crowd moved on to the GT3/3RS and values are MSRP -10%. As an enthusiast, this makes little sense to me as I don't think the GT3 or 3RS is 1.6 - 2.5x the car. YMMV.
If you own these cars because you love them, a semi rational depreciation curve doesn't scare you because the use/experience is worth it. If you are in the class above, you'll probably bolt at the first sign of trouble or when the next big thing comes along. Curious to do a poll to see how many owners exit with a 10-15% 2 year depreciation curve. Time will tell.
I'm not sure if people here don't understand inflation or don't believe it? The inflation calculators are using the data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics which tracks inflation. There's CPI and PPI which separates Consumer and Producer inflation. Inflation is an aggregate number across many different things: food, energy, etc... so not everything increased by the same amount. Inflation calculators simply show your buying power in dollars comparing across periods taking into account inflation. I'm old enough to remember when you could use quarters to buy a can of soda and now it's more like $1. As for 2% inflation, that's the US goal to drive consumption and production. Basically, if your buying power decreases annually at the target 2% then you're more likely to spend it than to hoard it since it's worth less (in buying power) over time.
I understand it, I don't know why we accept it, other than to make currency feel scarce. Money or dollars in whatever country you live in, is infinite. Based on your reasoning of why they created inflation by means of money printing, is to effectively keep everyone working non-stop for the majority of their life. I'm no hippie, but it's kind of a messed up existence if you think about it.
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I’ll agree with you that MSRP with zero dealer games isn’t coming tomorrow. What I’ve said consistently is that the trajectory is downward and the scarcity narrative that justified $75-100K ADMs is done. We clearly agree on that part since you’re acknowledging winged cars have softened to $25-50K and dealers can’t move cars at the old premiums.
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Fair catch — I’ll own that. My original post was more aggressive on the timeline than where I’ve landed after tracking the data week over week since then. The directional call hasn’t changed — ADMs are compressing and the market is softening — but the pace is slower than I initially expected, particularly on the Touring side. I’d rather refine my position based on new data than dig in on a take just because I posted it three weeks ago.
But I’m curious — you’ve spent a lot of energy in this thread defending ADMs and pushing back on anyone suggesting the market is softening. You either paid a hefty ADM and need to justify it, or you’re a dealer trying to protect margins. Which one is it?
I believe there is more than just “amount over MSRP” at play, especially when the MSRP gets inflated with options that are of no value (or negative value) to folks like some CXX configs and PTS colors.
I As for 2% inflation, that's the US goal to drive consumption and production. Basically, if your buying power decreases annually at the target 2% then you're more likely to spend it than to hoard it since it's worth less (in buying power) over time.
I would also note product price inflation above 2% is when customers start to notice inflation; below 2% customers don't really notice it.
You remind me of an old executive I reported to. He would argue with the data I would present to him, then over time he would finally give in and make the decision I originally suggested.
