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Old 12-05-2022, 11:16 PM
  #526  
daveo4porsche
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Originally Posted by C.J. Ichiban
I just got back from Stuttgart, one of our clients took Euro Delivery of his Dolomite GT3 and while we where doing the factory tour- watching them build cars...it was a total treat. I've been there 5 times now and it never gets old seeing those guys and gals put together our little dream cars.

They take away our phones inside but we got to see a GT Silver with neodyne Weissach wheels GT3RS, along with some Sport Classics (almost all of them gray) and some GTS America Roadsters, GT4RS, and some blind person who did an all-red interior on their Shark Blue Turbo Cab. Cup cars are getting churned out right now in anticipation of 2023 season- so the only 'increase' in production for GT cars is going to be replacing the ~100 cup cars that are being made between now and February. They run 2-3 shifts at the factory nonstop and the small suppliers for the small funky pieces of carbon, or the wiring harnesses, or the mag wheels etc tend to be the ones that create delays. They can generally build a good amount of engines but you guys have to understand that Porsche is a for profit company and they are making as many cars as they can, nonstop. They are not a hyped up watch company that is trying to artificially deflate the supply.

These winged things look great in all colors- having seen the white/green one at Quail event and the silver/gold wheels one in person, and the early makings of a black one on the line...anyone getting an allocation (who can actually drive/will actually track it) is going to be in for a fun experience. The wing is hilariously large in person.

to address total production and overlap etc...dealers were given the 'entire calendar year of GT allocations' already. so, anything beyond this current allocation batch is definitely a 2024 but also probably built in 2024. I have a psychopath (said lovingly) client who is waiting til 2024 because 'he really wants his car to be PTS'. Our store got a lot less than I'd hoped for, and in terms of GT3 production from our allocation of 2023's they made ~80-90% of them as 2022's or this year in 2022 vs what we are getting in 2023...that slack is not entirely getting taken up by the 3RS- but by the Dakar (2500 units WW), the GTS, the Turbo/S, and GT4RS (made on same line as 911).

if you have a car coming be grateful and if you don't- just do more trackdays with whatever you have in your garage right now.
thank you - love the post.
Old 12-06-2022, 01:12 AM
  #527  
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Originally Posted by C.J. Ichiban
I just got back from Stuttgart, one of our clients took Euro Delivery of his Dolomite GT3 and while we where doing the factory tour- watching them build cars...it was a total treat. I've been there 5 times now and it never gets old seeing those guys and gals put together our little dream cars.

They take away our phones inside but we got to see a GT Silver with neodyne Weissach wheels GT3RS, along with some Sport Classics (almost all of them gray) and some GTS America Roadsters, GT4RS, and some blind person who did an all-red interior on their Shark Blue Turbo Cab. Cup cars are getting churned out right now in anticipation of 2023 season- so the only 'increase' in production for GT cars is going to be replacing the ~100 cup cars that are being made between now and February. They run 2-3 shifts at the factory nonstop and the small suppliers for the small funky pieces of carbon, or the wiring harnesses, or the mag wheels etc tend to be the ones that create delays. They can generally build a good amount of engines but you guys have to understand that Porsche is a for profit company and they are making as many cars as they can, nonstop. They are not a hyped up watch company that is trying to artificially deflate the supply.

These winged things look great in all colors- having seen the white/green one at Quail event and the silver/gold wheels one in person, and the early makings of a black one on the line...anyone getting an allocation (who can actually drive/will actually track it) is going to be in for a fun experience. The wing is hilariously large in person.

to address total production and overlap etc...dealers were given the 'entire calendar year of GT allocations' already. so, anything beyond this current allocation batch is definitely a 2024 but also probably built in 2024. I have a psychopath (said lovingly) client who is waiting til 2024 because 'he really wants his car to be PTS'. Our store got a lot less than I'd hoped for, and in terms of GT3 production from our allocation of 2023's they made ~80-90% of them as 2022's or this year in 2022 vs what we are getting in 2023...that slack is not entirely getting taken up by the 3RS- but by the Dakar (2500 units WW), the GTS, the Turbo/S, and GT4RS (made on same line as 911).

if you have a car coming be grateful and if you don't- just do more trackdays with whatever you have in your garage right now.
u ze best
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Old 12-07-2022, 02:23 AM
  #528  
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Good to see you back CJ
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Old 12-22-2022, 07:31 PM
  #529  
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Originally Posted by C.J. Ichiban
I just got back from Stuttgart, one of our clients took Euro Delivery of his Dolomite GT3 and while we where doing the factory tour- watching them build cars...it was a total treat. I've been there 5 times now and it never gets old seeing those guys and gals put together our little dream cars.

They take away our phones inside but we got to see a GT Silver with neodyne Weissach wheels GT3RS, along with some Sport Classics (almost all of them gray) and some GTS America Roadsters, GT4RS, and some blind person who did an all-red interior on their Shark Blue Turbo Cab. Cup cars are getting churned out right now in anticipation of 2023 season- so the only 'increase' in production for GT cars is going to be replacing the ~100 cup cars that are being made between now and February. They run 2-3 shifts at the factory nonstop and the small suppliers for the small funky pieces of carbon, or the wiring harnesses, or the mag wheels etc tend to be the ones that create delays. They can generally build a good amount of engines but you guys have to understand that Porsche is a for profit company and they are making as many cars as they can, nonstop. They are not a hyped up watch company that is trying to artificially deflate the supply.

These winged things look great in all colors- having seen the white/green one at Quail event and the silver/gold wheels one in person, and the early makings of a black one on the line...anyone getting an allocation (who can actually drive/will actually track it) is going to be in for a fun experience. The wing is hilariously large in person.

to address total production and overlap etc...dealers were given the 'entire calendar year of GT allocations' already. so, anything beyond this current allocation batch is definitely a 2024 but also probably built in 2024. I have a psychopath (said lovingly) client who is waiting til 2024 because 'he really wants his car to be PTS'. Our store got a lot less than I'd hoped for, and in terms of GT3 production from our allocation of 2023's they made ~80-90% of them as 2022's or this year in 2022 vs what we are getting in 2023...that slack is not entirely getting taken up by the 3RS- but by the Dakar (2500 units WW), the GTS, the Turbo/S, and GT4RS (made on same line as 911).

if you have a car coming be grateful and if you don't- just do more trackdays with whatever you have in your garage right now.


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Old 12-23-2022, 11:22 PM
  #530  
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Curious if anyone is seeing a softening of the market over the past 1-2 months? I have a few friends who were on lists (other marques: Ferrari, Lotus, etc.) that saw people dropping off lists and the ADMs creeping downward. But has this being seen at the Porsche dealer yet? Anyone getting calls from their dealers that sound a bit more reasonable?

As a related example, I saw this used GT3 (white, 1600mi, pretty good spec) in Virginia last week. It's going for about $60k over MSRP. I thought it would disappear quickly but it's still there...

-hyp
Old 12-24-2022, 01:53 AM
  #531  
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Originally Posted by hyperion
Curious if anyone is seeing a softening of the market over the past 1-2 months? I have a few friends who were on lists (other marques: Ferrari, Lotus, etc.) that saw people dropping off lists and the ADMs creeping downward. But has this being seen at the Porsche dealer yet? Anyone getting calls from their dealers that sound a bit more reasonable?

As a related example, I saw this used GT3 (white, 1600mi, pretty good spec) in Virginia last week. It's going for about $60k over MSRP. I thought it would disappear quickly but it's still there...

-hyp
Just from Rennlist there are some Taycans cars at the dealer are available and some allocation slots have opened up so the market is definitely softening up. Prices are heading lower but it'll probably be a slow bleed lower.
Old 12-24-2022, 08:17 AM
  #532  
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I'm under no limitations about other brands so this is an easy one- even at 4am.

in tougher times, buyers go to "proven" examples. porsche cars are affordable by a critical amount of people. that's why we buy them. production is consistent for USA market.

the GT3 and GT3RS have proven, time and again- to be at a fantastic intersection of practical use, enthusiast use, and financially digestible. Generations of GT3 are being tracked, bubble wrapped, driven through canyon roads etc.

Status buyers want newest or lowest mileage used rare ones like coveted green 08RS, 4L 997, etc. PTS BROS!!!

track dudes want any and every car they can get hands on and go use as intended. that enthusiast (until made illegal) will ALWAYS be there for these cars. similar to M2/M3/M4 bmw.

Lamborghinis- typically keep getting replaced by their own formula of louder, wilder and starting at way higher prices...these have proven to be unstable. the STO market is taking a huge hit. SVJ roadsters were asking 1m not anymore. who is looking to pay for those? there is *always a bigger badder lambo* coming soon. the huracan STO is rad btw. BUT the Sterrato is a fixed number, "the last ever v10" so hype is shifting. the technica is likely going to be glossed over. Ultimae? whatever bro- the new replacement for aventador is basically a v12 SF90 style 1000hp hybrid. lambros are READY TO PARTY and will sell at a loss to get newer ones. 50 varieties of aventador.

mclaren- the 765LT is perhaps one of the fastest most capable cars released to humans, but, the hype brought in an unsustainable premium and there are not hordes of *mclaren collectors* - also prices start @ 450k msrp or so which is harder to digest. there are probably 50-100 "mclaren collectors" in USA. I used to be one. I know most of them. There are easily 1000 Porsche collectors just in USA.

bentley market is dumping- remember last year when dealers were advertising continentals at 50k over?? lol. bentaygas with 15-20k miles are 50% of msrp. - the spur and conti are awesome but lets face it- there is no "rennlist for luxury brands".

aston- literally tons of them for sale new in dealers. 1) yuck 2) no thanks 3) discounts cannot make me buy any

rolls- the cullinan hype is pivoting as lease returns are coming back. the other stuff is 380-450- 500k+ for what we all know not a good long term store of value. and only Michael *** is a collector. everyone else leases their car which means massive sell side pressure.

ferrari- only the SF90 market is suffering. pista and 812 and 812 GTS markets are all still very strong, the Cavalino Cult very much gripping wallets and trust funds. there are new dumb rich people who want red horsey cars every month. Personally, I've had a few and waste tons of time looking for them online. Forget what Jay Leno said. drive an 812, its far more rewarding as a "touring car" than anything else with an automatic you can compare it to (bentley, wraith, turbo S, 720, Superleggera DBS)


so- will the higher priced exotics hurt the Porsche market? or does the lack of available build slots for GT cars continue to force people into higher msrp landings? I think it is brand dependent. you can drive a Roma, and still feel like you are in the ferrari cult and you've made it. 300k car. you can go get a huracan and they're all the same except performante (awesome) and STO (super awesome) but half of them are hideous ( @worst.spec) keep in mind these are "entry models". GT3RS @ 300k is alpha apex achievement and limited in time of production cycle. like a tiffany 5711 they only make so many for so long and its long waits in between. that always works to Porsche's advantage vs these other brands. Pista Aperta is best corollary in terms of production within their price tier. 2 years on and still 100/200/300k asking over msrp (20-50%+ over msrp)

2023 Hot List: GT4RS, GT3 + Touring + 3RS and Dakar (bringing way less to usa) 812 GTS, F8 / Pista Spider, Sterrato waiting list, G63 4x4,
Spyder RS waitlist, z06



2023 Not Hot List: used british lux/exotics, svj, huracan evo, G63 (especially used), c8 vette, GT500, used turbo S

non exhaustive but hey 4am this is where I am
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Old 12-24-2022, 09:47 AM
  #533  
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CJ, why is the Turbo S not hot? Do you see prices dropping substantially in 2023?
Old 12-24-2022, 10:00 AM
  #534  
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Originally Posted by mooty
u ze best
He really is...

he's a great guy/enthusiast who happens to be a car dealer
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Old 12-24-2022, 10:15 AM
  #535  
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Originally Posted by richk
He really is...

he's a great guy/enthusiast who happens to be a car dealer
And those of us in Texas love CJ for everything he gave for us while here. Thank you.

His list and comments are amazing. I agree with 100% of them.

Amazing to hear that the factory is running flat out. We've all seen and heard of the harness shortages, fuel collection bolt issues on the 4 liter GT motors, etc -- but it's remarkable that they are able to crank out this many cars (and so many crazy variations) this quickly.
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Old 12-24-2022, 12:00 PM
  #536  
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Originally Posted by C.J. Ichiban
I'm under no limitations about other brands so this is an easy one- even at 4am.

in tougher times, buyers go to "proven" examples. porsche cars are affordable by a critical amount of people. that's why we buy them. production is consistent for USA market.

the GT3 and GT3RS have proven, time and again- to be at a fantastic intersection of practical use, enthusiast use, and financially digestible. Generations of GT3 are being tracked, bubble wrapped, driven through canyon roads etc.

Status buyers want newest or lowest mileage used rare ones like coveted green 08RS, 4L 997, etc. PTS BROS!!!

track dudes want any and every car they can get hands on and go use as intended. that enthusiast (until made illegal) will ALWAYS be there for these cars. similar to M2/M3/M4 bmw.

Lamborghinis- typically keep getting replaced by their own formula of louder, wilder and starting at way higher prices...these have proven to be unstable. the STO market is taking a huge hit. SVJ roadsters were asking 1m not anymore. who is looking to pay for those? there is *always a bigger badder lambo* coming soon. the huracan STO is rad btw. BUT the Sterrato is a fixed number, "the last ever v10" so hype is shifting. the technica is likely going to be glossed over. Ultimae? whatever bro- the new replacement for aventador is basically a v12 SF90 style 1000hp hybrid. lambros are READY TO PARTY and will sell at a loss to get newer ones. 50 varieties of aventador.

mclaren- the 765LT is perhaps one of the fastest most capable cars released to humans, but, the hype brought in an unsustainable premium and there are not hordes of *mclaren collectors* - also prices start @ 450k msrp or so which is harder to digest. there are probably 50-100 "mclaren collectors" in USA. I used to be one. I know most of them. There are easily 1000 Porsche collectors just in USA.

bentley market is dumping- remember last year when dealers were advertising continentals at 50k over?? lol. bentaygas with 15-20k miles are 50% of msrp. - the spur and conti are awesome but lets face it- there is no "rennlist for luxury brands".

aston- literally tons of them for sale new in dealers. 1) yuck 2) no thanks 3) discounts cannot make me buy any

rolls- the cullinan hype is pivoting as lease returns are coming back. the other stuff is 380-450- 500k+ for what we all know not a good long term store of value. and only Michael *** is a collector. everyone else leases their car which means massive sell side pressure.

ferrari- only the SF90 market is suffering. pista and 812 and 812 GTS markets are all still very strong, the Cavalino Cult very much gripping wallets and trust funds. there are new dumb rich people who want red horsey cars every month. Personally, I've had a few and waste tons of time looking for them online. Forget what Jay Leno said. drive an 812, its far more rewarding as a "touring car" than anything else with an automatic you can compare it to (bentley, wraith, turbo S, 720, Superleggera DBS)


so- will the higher priced exotics hurt the Porsche market? or does the lack of available build slots for GT cars continue to force people into higher msrp landings? I think it is brand dependent. you can drive a Roma, and still feel like you are in the ferrari cult and you've made it. 300k car. you can go get a huracan and they're all the same except performante (awesome) and STO (super awesome) but half of them are hideous ( @worst.spec) keep in mind these are "entry models". GT3RS @ 300k is alpha apex achievement and limited in time of production cycle. like a tiffany 5711 they only make so many for so long and its long waits in between. that always works to Porsche's advantage vs these other brands. Pista Aperta is best corollary in terms of production within their price tier. 2 years on and still 100/200/300k asking over msrp (20-50%+ over msrp)

2023 Hot List: GT4RS, GT3 + Touring + 3RS and Dakar (bringing way less to usa) 812 GTS, F8 / Pista Spider, Sterrato waiting list, G63 4x4,
Spyder RS waitlist, z06



2023 Not Hot List: used british lux/exotics, svj, huracan evo, G63 (especially used), c8 vette, GT500, used turbo S

non exhaustive but hey 4am this is where I am
4am works
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Old 12-24-2022, 12:26 PM
  #537  
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Great post as always CJ. I'd love to buy a CGT under $1m but that boat has sailed so now I might shlep around for a Speciale as those prices bleed lower.
Old 12-24-2022, 12:26 PM
  #538  
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Originally Posted by C.J. Ichiban

2023 Hot List: GT4RS, GT3 + Touring + 3RS and Dakar (bringing way less to usa) 812 GTS, F8 / Pista Spider, Sterrato waiting list, G63 4x4,
Spyder RS waitlist, z06



2023 Not Hot List: used british lux/exotics, svj, huracan evo, G63 (especially used), c8 vette, GT500, used turbo S

non exhaustive but hey 4am this is where I am
+ 992 ST for the hot list or is that the included above in GT3/Touring/RS?

Last edited by 993RR; 12-24-2022 at 12:28 PM.
Old 12-24-2022, 12:33 PM
  #539  
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Originally Posted by C.J. Ichiban
I'm under no limitations about other brands so this is an easy one- even at 4am.

[snip]

non exhaustive but hey 4am this is where I am
Please write more at 4am. Let’s make it a tradition, “CJ’s Sanity Check”. Post of the year. Merry Christmas
Old 12-24-2022, 12:41 PM
  #540  
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I wish more dealer GMs and Owners of Dealerships would post more here. They can bring a lot of insight. Unfortunately it's a bit tough for them as I am sure there is some professional liability sharing information here and of course some of us are a bit rude to the dealerships too.
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