audipwr1

Think this is good

the BIG unknown is two fold

1. what does this macro cycle bring us
2. does the more easily driveable nature of these new GT spec sports cars reduce the volatility in economic times

ive never paid over MSRP or even at MSRP for GT spec Pcar car - I’ve had 4 - many of people who’ve been in this game For 10+ years have the same story. I even bought a brand new 718 gt4 below msp right off the lot…

a 4.0 they couldn’t give away in 2011 - I almost bought one for 160k.. - and it still hasn’t outperformed the S&P if you bought it new then.

bottom line don’t invest in new cars / drive the ones you want to drive / buy them when they feel right to you personally financially / but it’s a suckers play to convince yourself these GT cars are blue chip over a full cycle. Every single thing on the planet appreciated (or inflated…) 10-50% in the last 3 years - my wife sold a used juicer yesterday for more than she paid for it…

save some powder for q2 next year you may find yourself in opportunity for all sorts of discretionary goods

also seconded on g63 im in the market for one and it’s a negative auction - dealers keep recutting themselves trying to get me to buy

Rod27

Until recently cars would always depreciate 10 to 20% as soon as you drove them off the lot. But with green energy in government mandates, things are different now especially for normally aspirated engines. I still agree that economic times don’t look good for the next one to two years and all cars will probably depreciate some.

Nizer

Fed controls car prices for all but the uber rare - think Ferrari GTO (the real one) - and even these will be impacted. End of story.

And who is this Ichiban and what does a Japanese guy posting at 4am know about cars? Hahaha...

C.J. Ichiban

They made 2021, 2022, and 2023 turbo/ Turbo S...all this means is that supply side has more units in operation (or UiO)- there are NO 2021 GT3, and no 2022 GT3RS...so it's just a tighter supply even with the super close relative price range (200-300k is tighter range, all same buyer FiCo)

I have a 2021 Turbo S cab on consignment. In the time I've had it, I've sold 5+ CPO GT3s of various 991/992 sorts. I think the non-Oem dealers will get dealt the most pain, as they have to go buy everything themselves and do not rely on a new car pipeline to make customers happy.

As OEM dealers, we at least have incoming new cars which are generally sold ahead of time- especially the big stuff like GT cars. Oddly, the cars that people have been backing out of in the last 6 months were the GTS trim ones, not the Turbo or S/4S trims (across all models).

I think the GTS is a great value play, and might be attracting a totally different subset vs the S/4S and GT3 guys.

C.J. Ichiban

having owned a 458 SP, Pista, and an 812, the 812 is the best car. The Pista is a mile faster than the 458 sp, but the 458sp makes really good noises. The 458 is hot right now but could definitely cool off back down to the 350-450k range because it's not worth 500-600k...

C.J. Ichiban

if you want a Black 2021 G63 LMK!

some new people in congress could unionize to try and stifle inflation but not likely that quick- if we do have a 'prices go down' vibe on any assets, it will actually take a lot more people into BK- too many levers are still deployed, not enough sideline liquidity on corp balance sheets to sustain. it won't just be Tony the Lambro distressed selling, it will be Carmax, American Airlines, Chase Bank, etc.

audipwr1

you always have to pay the piper - when economy goes up it must come down - how much / how hard / when - no one has batted 1000 on these.

Autoloan CLOs busted last time / and banks needed bailout so yes that happens - will it happen this time? Again no one knows

I do know corp balance sheets are stressed today especially levered ones and I also know when entire asset classes rise uniformly (tech, Rolex’s, crypto, mass produced cars) - then there is pain to come.

it has to be broken - otherwise we head into really dark times - how accurately the air can be let out of the hole in the balloon is up to the fed and the pressure they get from career politicians who generally are incompetent about these sort of things

not an investing forum - it’s how I make a living so something I am a student and practitioner of

and ha will think on that G! My old trailer I sold you years back I bet worth more now - monetize!

usctrojanGT3

After missing out on a 13k mile $699k Silver CGT in Nov 2020 by one day I started looking at Speciales in Dec 2020 when many were sub $400k but then I got busy with work as the real estate market caught on fire. Like you said, they went to $500k-$600k and at that price point it was a pass but sub $400k I'm a buyer but if you come across a no story CGT driver under $1m in the next few years just text me.

shrimp money

He either owns a beer company or a Japanese steakhouse.

Diablo Dude

Nonsense.
The FED is essentially autonomous.

The FED has pretty much done what it wants to do since Congress gave them a "dual-mandate" back in 1977 when they amended The Federal Reserve Act of 1913.
They've never taken any orders or felt any pressure from career politicians. To even make such a claim is preposterous.
The Fed Chair shows up twice a year in front of Congress in Feb and July and gives them an update on their goals.
Period.

The Fed Chairman is the most powerful person in the country because he and his governors set monetary policy and the price of money.
He answers to no one, let alone a congressman who never got around to taking Econ. 101a or knows what the Taylor Rule is.

If anyone thinks otherwise, I guess they werent around in 2008-2009 when Ben Bernanke waved his "magic" wand and guaranteed all of the counterparty risk for market participants on the other side of the AIG CDS trades. - - - Never mind the extraordinary steps that Bernanke and the Fed undertook in regards to AIG.

Is the Fed Chairman infallible?
Of course not.

The same guy that increased M2 by over 40% from March 2020 - January 2022 and who had his head stuck in the sand thinking that inflation was merely "transitory" is now trying to play catch up with our economy at risk. It's like a football team that is behind by 2 touchdowns with not much time on the clock and has gone into a "no-huddle" offense. Even after Powell's Mea culpa in December 2021, it took him until March to raise Fed Funds by a measly 1/4 point because he had to wind-down their QE bond-buying program first. Never mind that the CPI in November of 2021 was already at 6.8%

He might just go down as one of the most incompetent Fed Chair's in history.
But we got stuck with him because Trump believed that Yellen was too short (5'2") to be reappointed.
But that's another topic.

Time will tell.

shrimp money

Hypothetically speaking, if nothing changed, wouldn’t CPI report in June 2023 basically show that inflation is down to a normal ~2%? If each month is just compared to that particular month a year ago, you’ve essentially gotten inflation down.

It’s not like they’re trying to get the basket of 80k items to match 2019 prices.

Manifold

Deflation is possible.

WillZPalo

Hi Folks:

New to rennlist here.

i’ve allocated my MY23 GT3RS with my local dealer here in Northern California.

March 2023 Build, May 5th 2023 Delivery.

Current ADM on the car is 100k over with my 257k only spec without Weissach and PTS.

i’m not sure if the ADM will drop lower after beginning of next year but i’m sure that i’m first in dealership’s allocation. And one thing my SA told me is that they are only producing 3RS for one year only (Same as Pista era) which will increase the value of the vehicle later on. But i have huge doubt on that.

is there any suggestion if i should take the deal with 100k over or something. I known alot of GT owners traded in their 991.2 RS for Gt4RS because it’s a better car and not a lot of people are interested in 3RS anymore?

Thanks!

Merry Christmas!

shrimp money

First question is, why are you buying the vehicle?

Second question is, do you have F you money?

$100k ADM is definitely below the $150k that was quite commonly stated around here about a month ago.

WillZPalo

i was ordering 3RS in order to get my MY23 Gt3 Touring. I’ve heard that Porsche has stopped production for touring and not taking anymore Allocations. I was hoping to drive the 3RS for couple month and flat out (not trying to flip). And yes you’re correct it was at 150k couple month before when the car was revealed and 100k was not a bad ADM at that period of time? But since i don’t think i’ll get touring from the same dealership i might just let it go?

i used to own a 991.2 GT3RS and it was a great car to drive with but with current markup im lost..

Thanks!