Tesla has just becoming the most valuable US auto company EVER. That include even GM in the 60's. Bears and detractors now all come out say Tesla did everything right the last year or two. What hey did not realize is Tesla had been going the same direction more than a decade. The only thing is they could not understand what Tesla's real business plan is or if it will work until it is confirmed by the market now. So much for the need of those "analystes".

 

Model y wait might be over soon
nice carb
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/14...in-next-month/

 

Correct. They keep lying for many years now.

Correct. These new investors are the shoeshine boys, bubble top is near and I'm looking for shorting opportunities.

 

Very hard to argue with people who don't mind being wrong and who can afford the luxury.

 

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47...7-d161bce15da4

 

What's happened to demand?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKBN1ZF03N

 

what is production rate? i dont think its dropped - could the 1/2 demand based on us registrations be due to redirecting output to ROW?

i dont think these numbers paint a complete story but they do fit a narrative.

 

Seems to be trying to find a story where there isn't one. Disregarding global deliveries that started last year to equate to drop in US demand is reaching.
Let me know when they start to layoff employees in Fremont along with total production drops without external factors e.g. battery supply.
What's next, US deliveries the first month of the quarter drop dramatically from pre-global release, therefore, demand cliff.

 

Thanks for putting "ever" in all caps. It really shows the emotion of the Tesla faithful.

AOL had a market cap of over $220B
Worldcom had a market cap of over $180B.
Enron had a market cap over $60B and was named as the most innovative large company in America.

Turns out that the market is not always correct about the value of a company.

It is so cute when the Tesla nuts go off the deep end with their childish emotional outbursts when someone disagrees with them, especially when they "back up" their position with wimpy statements like "most likely". Don't worry dude, Elon will still like you even if someone disagrees with your statements. It will be ok.

 

Typically in the past, the rationalization for marginal Q1 U.S. deliveries has been that the majority of product goes to ROW. Now we find that 2019 Q4 U.S. deliveries were weak,
and the rationalization for some is that ROW deliveries were the focus. If 2020 Q1 deliveries are weak, what's the argument then other than U.S. demand has weakened?

 

Some people are reporting that the data is actually incorrect and, because of how they pushed Californian deliveries to the last moment of Q4, those registrations won't show in the data. Seems a bit far fetched to me, but since they've sold all the cars they made this year, I'm not worried demand has dropped off. Comparing it to 2018 is a stretch anyway, since 2018 meant the first full year of delivering all the pre-orders from the years before.

 

Some of the Californian orders from early December spilled over to Q1. Not sure how much.

 

The best street cars you can buy are still made by Porsche Motorsport.

...but you'll have to excuse me for thinking the Taycan is nothing more than the modern overpriced, overhyped failure that was the original Tesla Roadster. Generations later it looks like Tesla is on the verge of figuring it out while Porsche has a long ways to go.

 

No, typically Q1 is weak industry wide. The rationalization YOY this past year was ROW deliveries taking away deliveries from some countries and adding to others. Similar to how Norway sales plummeted when the deliveries were focused on the Netherlands.
Regardless, i think this report was basing Q4 numbers YOY, not Q1. That misinformation campaign is still a few weeks out.
However, this report was based on registrations in California which can lag deliveries by weeks and tells us nothing of national statistics.
If the article's point was to say demand for Model 3 is plummeting and they focus on a subset of data, then I can only say congrats on graduating from the Anton Wahlman school of Journalistic integrity. It's a claim supported by bad (or at leas misconstrued) data.
As some have alluded, you should really compare total production to determine a downward trend and even then it's not going to be accurate until Tesla is delivering to all markets.
Once they have met the organic demand worldwide, then we can get a more accurate picture of sustainable growth and demand that is not distorted like it is now.
Model 3 demand may have peaked in California but this isn't the kind of data that would prove that.
My guess is that the Model Y will draw down significantly on model 3 demand once it's released and those articles have already been written just waiting to press "send".

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...-vehicles.aspx

 

This is by the way another myth.
///// I rather answer this in this thread

Tesla superchargers aren't free for anyone. If you look up the quarterly reports, everyone buying a car pays for this.

https://seekingalpha.com/filing/4675715
"Automotive sales revenue includes revenues related to deliveries of new vehicles, and specific other features and services that meet the definition of a performance obligation include access to our Supercharger network, internet connectivity, Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (“FSD”) features and over-the-air software updates. Deferred revenue related to the access to our Supercharger network, internet connectivity, Autopilot and FSD features and over-the-air software updates on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantee amounted to $1.30 billion and $883 million as of September 30, 2019 and December 31, 2018, respectively. Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of the balance sheet date. Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2018 was $177 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2019. From the deferred revenue balance as of January 1, 2018, revenue recognized during the nine months ended September 30, 2018 was $60 million. Of the total deferred revenue on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantees, we expect to recognize $662 million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized over the various performance periods of the obligations, which is up to the eight-year life of the vehicle."

So that's (1.3B - 883M+177M) / 255k cars = $2,329 per car. This covers Superchargers, internet and OTA.