The Million Dollar RS Question
03-25-2013, 07:09 PM
#16
Burning Brakes
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Just because there are no cars available, doesn't mean it can't be a "seller's market." There is simply a gap between what "buyers" want to pay versus where the "sellers" want to sell. Owners are simply not enticed to let their cars go at current market levels, so they don't put them on the market. They obviously believe their cars will be worth more - and the 991 RS with it's PDK only gives them a good excuse not to sell now - just like there was the last of the air-cooled cars where you see 993's with mileage trade at MSRP levels, current holders of the last manual RS cars think that may make their cars more special. The result is very little trading volume.
There were a ton of 993's made, including the Turbo. When you compare the production of the 993 Turbos to the production of RS cars and particularly the 4.0 RS, it isn't hard to suggest that prices will eventually go much higher. Look at the 993 Turbo S. While the car has some unique attributes, it really isn't too unique when compared to a stock regular 993 Turbo, but a pristine Turbo S will trade at lofty levels.
There were a ton of 993's made, including the Turbo. When you compare the production of the 993 Turbos to the production of RS cars and particularly the 4.0 RS, it isn't hard to suggest that prices will eventually go much higher. Look at the 993 Turbo S. While the car has some unique attributes, it really isn't too unique when compared to a stock regular 993 Turbo, but a pristine Turbo S will trade at lofty levels.
03-25-2013, 07:14 PM
#17
The market for used 997.1RS and 997.2RS is indeed currenty small.
Those who typically buy them new and sell them with low miles within first two years (to avoid mass depreciation and to keep driveway fresh) have come and gone for both generations. They commonly go through multiple high end vehicles...
Other people who bought them new especially those for above sticker are in for the long haul as they paid out the *** and any sale would be a massive hit, espcecially on something they do not care to replace anyhow. They paid high because they really wanted one to hold.
Those who bought them used waited patiently and are also not interested in anything else new or used to replace them as they bought in below the major depreciation radar and they are where they wanna be.
The next RS is more then a year out and a manual transmission in a GT3 is no longer available.
Makes the 997 generation somewhat special. (think of 993 turbo values today)
So now all of the above owners are content for the moment until the next great thing comes along.
So as they say in blackjack, i will stay.
Those who typically buy them new and sell them with low miles within first two years (to avoid mass depreciation and to keep driveway fresh) have come and gone for both generations. They commonly go through multiple high end vehicles...
Other people who bought them new especially those for above sticker are in for the long haul as they paid out the *** and any sale would be a massive hit, espcecially on something they do not care to replace anyhow. They paid high because they really wanted one to hold.
Those who bought them used waited patiently and are also not interested in anything else new or used to replace them as they bought in below the major depreciation radar and they are where they wanna be.
The next RS is more then a year out and a manual transmission in a GT3 is no longer available.
Makes the 997 generation somewhat special. (think of 993 turbo values today)
So now all of the above owners are content for the moment until the next great thing comes along.
So as they say in blackjack, i will stay.
03-25-2013, 07:23 PM
#18
Burning Brakes
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the likes of the GT2RS we will never see again from Porsche IMHO
last factory built model that includes all of the following - over 600hp, Rwd, manual trans, and no hybrid function
I think this will mean something long term... really long term
I would bet that there will always be examples for sale but the really mint ones will never hit the open market -- simply moved back and forth thru various collections and possibly with the help of a broker or in the know porschephile... and it will never be the crown jewel of any varstiy level Porsche collection but serious collectors will recognize the significance of its inclusion in any Porsche collection.
If I was inclined to speculate on future values of current era Porsches I would target the following models:
CGT - last analog Porsche "super car" and a very good seller and a reputation of being a handful... oh and v10 and fantastic looking and manual trans etc.
GT2RS - do we see another factory built 911 variant making over 600 hp... and when we do, you know it will be pdk, torque vectoring, rear steering, hybrid, awd - ring time will be great but the experience will be digital. The GT2RS will never have the mass appeal of the 4.0 but for a certain group of fans it does represent a "greatest hits" compilation of the current era.
4.0RS - this is obvious... limited production, 4.0 liter, highly acclaimed, race proven engine, truly an end of an era model...
3.8RS and 3.6RS will hold long term and future pricing will get sucked upwards by the 4.0 inevitable collector status, but the production numbers will limit upside for all but the bubble wrapped examples
last factory built model that includes all of the following - over 600hp, Rwd, manual trans, and no hybrid function
I think this will mean something long term... really long term
I would bet that there will always be examples for sale but the really mint ones will never hit the open market -- simply moved back and forth thru various collections and possibly with the help of a broker or in the know porschephile... and it will never be the crown jewel of any varstiy level Porsche collection but serious collectors will recognize the significance of its inclusion in any Porsche collection.
If I was inclined to speculate on future values of current era Porsches I would target the following models:
CGT - last analog Porsche "super car" and a very good seller and a reputation of being a handful... oh and v10 and fantastic looking and manual trans etc.
GT2RS - do we see another factory built 911 variant making over 600 hp... and when we do, you know it will be pdk, torque vectoring, rear steering, hybrid, awd - ring time will be great but the experience will be digital. The GT2RS will never have the mass appeal of the 4.0 but for a certain group of fans it does represent a "greatest hits" compilation of the current era.
4.0RS - this is obvious... limited production, 4.0 liter, highly acclaimed, race proven engine, truly an end of an era model...
3.8RS and 3.6RS will hold long term and future pricing will get sucked upwards by the 4.0 inevitable collector status, but the production numbers will limit upside for all but the bubble wrapped examples
GT2RS- 4.0: at least 50 % over new price
3.8/3.6RS;3.6; 3.8, GT2..roughly at the prices that they are trading today..they will go down a bit in the next 5 years..but will kreep up again afterwards..
03-26-2013, 07:22 AM
#19
with the lack of growth and inflation in the worlds markets and no real sign of change for years to come I can't see the market reacting the same as the like of the 993 Turbo S, it was a very different climate. Prices will fall but a glacial rate.
03-26-2013, 07:43 AM
#20
Agree with others---- people are not offering to sell 3.8 rs right now due to lack of replacement options. If the 991gt3 and upcoming RS followed more of their heritage- I think supply would be much higher.
03-26-2013, 08:03 AM
#21
Burning Brakes
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I agree that with the world economy and especially in the EU and the US..people will have to tighten their belts in the future...thats clear.
Coming back to your words, then also prices of houses etc must fall (which happened in some cases)...but to put it differently, there are enough (millions/ thousands?) of 500,000$ houses on the market..will these houses still be worth 500K in 15 years..?(I personally dont think so, for exclusive 2 Million homes the case might be different)..but there arent so many 4.0s on the market- there will always be enough rich people to buy the handfull 4.0s that would be yearly on the market.
For 3.6 GT3 or 3.8...the case might be a bit different..but even these wont become "worthless"..if a 3.8 is worth a thousand bucks in 10 years..then I think most of us wont be here anymore..and rennlist will be shutdown due to a lack of funding...then its game over for all of us..
03-26-2013, 08:14 AM
#22
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exactly..many upgraded from 996 to 997 GT3 GT2..but this time its all a bit different..and the chances that if someone sells his 3.8RS in 1 year..he wouldnt be able to get it back so quickly for cheaper money...
03-26-2013, 08:34 AM
#23
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It's really not that much different. People are just making it out to be a much bigger deal this time.
03-26-2013, 08:53 AM
#24
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a) an engine that is not used in 991 GT3 CUP/RSR
b) no manual available
c) rear wheel steering - forbidden in 991 RSR
d) e-steering - forbidden in 991 RSR
e) e- handbrake - forbidden in 991 RSR
..Im sure I forgot something..
I agree..people make a big deal out of it..me too
..but thats life..
03-26-2013, 09:14 AM
#25
Current supply of GTRS cars is fixed at whatever it is all over the world.
997.2 gt3s can be found. One available here for 90K.Another one for $98K (PCCB). Thats probably because 991 gt is on its way, so yiou will see a slow movement out of the 997.2 into the 991.1
The 3.8RS market will stay dry till the 991RS is official.
That, plus selling now, no matter how strong prices are, means an empty driveway. No RS for you. To many, that would far outweigh $15-20K.
Kinda like selling your house for a great price... and then having nowhere to live!
03-26-2013, 09:40 AM
#26
I started looking at GT3s about two years ago and was surprised to see the prices steadily rising. Finally decided to pull the trigger on a 4,000 mile never tracked .2 RS in Oct from a dealership in Ohio. I was concerned because when I saw a car I wanted it was selling before I could make an offer. I now notice a similarly equipped .2RS at the same dealership and they are asking a $30,000 premium.
Most of us end up using these cars which requires modifications which means even if we sell for more what we purchased for we would lose. I for one plan on keeping this for the long haul, but of course I say that with every car.
Most of us end up using these cars which requires modifications which means even if we sell for more what we purchased for we would lose. I for one plan on keeping this for the long haul, but of course I say that with every car.
03-26-2013, 10:43 AM
#27
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Its exactly this
Current supply of GTRS cars is fixed at whatever it is all over the world.
997.2 gt3s can be found. One available here for 90K.Another one for $98K (PCCB). Thats probably because 991 gt is on its way, so yiou will see a slow movement out of the 997.2 into the 991.1
The 3.8RS market will stay dry till the 991RS is official.
That, plus selling now, no matter how strong prices are, means an empty driveway. No RS for you. To many, that would far outweigh $15-20K.
Kinda like selling your house for a great price... and then having nowhere to live!
Current supply of GTRS cars is fixed at whatever it is all over the world.
997.2 gt3s can be found. One available here for 90K.Another one for $98K (PCCB). Thats probably because 991 gt is on its way, so yiou will see a slow movement out of the 997.2 into the 991.1
The 3.8RS market will stay dry till the 991RS is official.
That, plus selling now, no matter how strong prices are, means an empty driveway. No RS for you. To many, that would far outweigh $15-20K.
Kinda like selling your house for a great price... and then having nowhere to live!
..that made my day..this is the quote of the day on rennlistperfect..
03-26-2013, 11:02 AM
#28
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The handful of people buying the handful of 4.0RS cars (especially PTS samples) are the ones setting the market price right now. I am assuming these people that are buying multiple copies of these cars are not collecting them for any reason other than to sell them later. Problem is, to whom will they sell them? When the 4.0RS is 3 years old and out of warranty who would buy it over a CGT for similar money?
03-26-2013, 11:47 AM
#30
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Thread Starter
I don't think there is a fair comparison in long term (which is all guesswork at this point) values for the CGT vs. 4.0 vs. GT2RS. Most importantly, there were 1,270 CGT's built. If you look back carefully over time, a relatively small number of cars (Porsche or otherwise) built in this quantity have appreciated in value to any real degree. The 4.0 at 600 cars and the GT2RS at 500 cars, obviously a much different starting point. Also, with the latter two, those are 911's and will always appeal to the person who loves the 911. The CGT is in its own, very cool, category, but appeals to a more limited collecting audience.
A point to consider - I read all of the time about the smile factor that everyone derives from their track days in their Porsches - very easy to understand. At the same time, collectors like me and others get that same smile factor from simply owning these great cars and driving them on the street. No difference at all. So buying multiple examples of RS and GT cars need not be speculation (frankly, I don't care if they increase, decrease or remain at current values), but merely exponential increases in the smile factor.
A point to consider - I read all of the time about the smile factor that everyone derives from their track days in their Porsches - very easy to understand. At the same time, collectors like me and others get that same smile factor from simply owning these great cars and driving them on the street. No difference at all. So buying multiple examples of RS and GT cars need not be speculation (frankly, I don't care if they increase, decrease or remain at current values), but merely exponential increases in the smile factor.