997.2 Engine Reliability
02-22-2015, 01:52 PM
#196
Warning: This may get dismal ... and long. I'm away from the house, have finished the paper, and have some free time.
How many miles are we expecting? How many years? Reliability is relative to the use we expect. I have heard of some Gen 2 cars hitting 100K. I have not heard of problems. This implies, given that many have a propensity toward limited driving, that a lot of us have a decade of hassle free (assuming proper maintenance) mechanical operation. That group, after 10 years, will still be below 100K.
But we live in a semi conductor world where lifetime is determined by thermal cycles, operating temperature, and shelf life. Yes, shelf life ... more on that shortly.
Our new motors depend on computers which, while amazingly reliable, will eventually fail, regardless of the miles driven. And then our motors will stop. And we will be dependent upon the good will of Porsche to maintain a gaggle of replacement computers.
How many car companies support cars after ten years. Even Toyota couldn't replace my turbos 5 years after Supra production ended. They didn't even have a tech trained to evaluate them. Granted, it was a rare car, but still ... no inventory?
If, that is IF, these computers are available they will be service grade rebuilds. They will still be old (remember shelf life).
The leading edge of the bell curve of failures hits our electronics at 10 years. We as consumers don't like that reality. We push it off as not likely. But ... How old are your appliances, TVs, computers, phones, ...? Take an average. The center of that mentioned bell curve is 15 years.
Add vibration (what ... in a car!) and think fractured solder joints. There is no such thing as a good connection. Poor connections create spikes that damage components as well as create intermittent failures that are nearly impossible to locate. Add in weather and condensation. Want to get into voltage regulation and other situations that put a car's electronics at risk? Today's engineers are very capable, but they still are limited by physics and chemistry.
Given our use patterns perhaps we should be more worried about the electronics than the mechanics. That's the way I see it. I believe we have entered a new paradigm. With our limited driving, the time is more the enemy than the miles.
Perhaps in the future an Indie will create a retrofit electronic package using new parts. Or we will be upgrading motors to newer versions that fit into our existing frames.
Side bar: Or technology, the environment, and regulations will have us go the way of the dinosaur. A decade is an eon to technology. And for the environment. And for regulations. Figure it will be 10 years before a lot of us hit 100K. Most cars on the road are less than 10 years old. Retooling our country's fleet is no longer a 20 year involvement. Regulations will affect us, possibly before our cars wear out. Self driving cars are coming our way. Those who hold the wheel will be outlaws! Well, I hope not.
At some point we will drain our fluids, move our cars into the house, and have a wonderful center piece for the dining room table. Personally, mine is slated for the north master bedroom wall, centered under the TV! I just have to disassemble it enough to get it up that extra set of stairs to the loft ... the landing is a tight squeeze.
In the meantime, drive drive drive. I will not look back in 10 years and regret having let my car sit in the garage. In 10 years, I will report back on how far beyond 200K I got! Of course, that assumes my electronics make it to the middle of the bell curve!
How many miles are we expecting? How many years? Reliability is relative to the use we expect. I have heard of some Gen 2 cars hitting 100K. I have not heard of problems. This implies, given that many have a propensity toward limited driving, that a lot of us have a decade of hassle free (assuming proper maintenance) mechanical operation. That group, after 10 years, will still be below 100K.
But we live in a semi conductor world where lifetime is determined by thermal cycles, operating temperature, and shelf life. Yes, shelf life ... more on that shortly.
Our new motors depend on computers which, while amazingly reliable, will eventually fail, regardless of the miles driven. And then our motors will stop. And we will be dependent upon the good will of Porsche to maintain a gaggle of replacement computers.
How many car companies support cars after ten years. Even Toyota couldn't replace my turbos 5 years after Supra production ended. They didn't even have a tech trained to evaluate them. Granted, it was a rare car, but still ... no inventory?
If, that is IF, these computers are available they will be service grade rebuilds. They will still be old (remember shelf life).
The leading edge of the bell curve of failures hits our electronics at 10 years. We as consumers don't like that reality. We push it off as not likely. But ... How old are your appliances, TVs, computers, phones, ...? Take an average. The center of that mentioned bell curve is 15 years.
Add vibration (what ... in a car!) and think fractured solder joints. There is no such thing as a good connection. Poor connections create spikes that damage components as well as create intermittent failures that are nearly impossible to locate. Add in weather and condensation. Want to get into voltage regulation and other situations that put a car's electronics at risk? Today's engineers are very capable, but they still are limited by physics and chemistry.
Given our use patterns perhaps we should be more worried about the electronics than the mechanics. That's the way I see it. I believe we have entered a new paradigm. With our limited driving, the time is more the enemy than the miles.
Perhaps in the future an Indie will create a retrofit electronic package using new parts. Or we will be upgrading motors to newer versions that fit into our existing frames.
Side bar: Or technology, the environment, and regulations will have us go the way of the dinosaur. A decade is an eon to technology. And for the environment. And for regulations. Figure it will be 10 years before a lot of us hit 100K. Most cars on the road are less than 10 years old. Retooling our country's fleet is no longer a 20 year involvement. Regulations will affect us, possibly before our cars wear out. Self driving cars are coming our way. Those who hold the wheel will be outlaws! Well, I hope not.
At some point we will drain our fluids, move our cars into the house, and have a wonderful center piece for the dining room table. Personally, mine is slated for the north master bedroom wall, centered under the TV! I just have to disassemble it enough to get it up that extra set of stairs to the loft ... the landing is a tight squeeze.
In the meantime, drive drive drive. I will not look back in 10 years and regret having let my car sit in the garage. In 10 years, I will report back on how far beyond 200K I got! Of course, that assumes my electronics make it to the middle of the bell curve!
02-22-2015, 04:21 PM
#197
Nordschleife Master
Warning: This may get dismal ... and long. I'm away from the house, have finished the paper, and have some free time.
How many miles are we expecting? How many years? Reliability is relative to the use we expect. I have heard of some Gen 2 cars hitting 100K. I have not heard of problems. This implies, given that many have a propensity toward limited driving, that a lot of us have a decade of hassle free (assuming proper maintenance) mechanical operation. That group, after 10 years, will still be below 100K.
But we live in a semi conductor world where lifetime is determined by thermal cycles, operating temperature, and shelf life. Yes, shelf life ... more on that shortly.
Our new motors depend on computers which, while amazingly reliable, will eventually fail, regardless of the miles driven. And then our motors will stop. And we will be dependent upon the good will of Porsche to maintain a gaggle of replacement computers.
How many car companies support cars after ten years. Even Toyota couldn't replace my turbos 5 years after Supra production ended. They didn't even have a tech trained to evaluate them. Granted, it was a rare car, but still ... no inventory?
If, that is IF, these computers are available they will be service grade rebuilds. They will still be old (remember shelf life).
The leading edge of the bell curve of failures hits our electronics at 10 years. We as consumers don't like that reality. We push it off as not likely. But ... How old are your appliances, TVs, computers, phones, ...? Take an average. The center of that mentioned bell curve is 15 years.
Add vibration (what ... in a car!) and think fractured solder joints. There is no such thing as a good connection. Poor connections create spikes that damage components as well as create intermittent failures that are nearly impossible to locate. Add in weather and condensation. Want to get into voltage regulation and other situations that put a car's electronics at risk? Today's engineers are very capable, but they still are limited by physics and chemistry.
Given our use patterns perhaps we should be more worried about the electronics than the mechanics. That's the way I see it. I believe we have entered a new paradigm. With our limited driving, the time is more the enemy than the miles.
Perhaps in the future an Indie will create a retrofit electronic package using new parts. Or we will be upgrading motors to newer versions that fit into our existing frames.
Side bar: Or technology, the environment, and regulations will have us go the way of the dinosaur. A decade is an eon to technology. And for the environment. And for regulations. Figure it will be 10 years before a lot of us hit 100K. Most cars on the road are less than 10 years old. Retooling our country's fleet is no longer a 20 year involvement. Regulations will affect us, possibly before our cars wear out. Self driving cars are coming our way. Those who hold the wheel will be outlaws! Well, I hope not.
At some point we will drain our fluids, move our cars into the house, and have a wonderful center piece for the dining room table. Personally, mine is slated for the north master bedroom wall, centered under the TV! I just have to disassemble it enough to get it up that extra set of stairs to the loft ... the landing is a tight squeeze.
In the meantime, drive drive drive. I will not look back in 10 years and regret having let my car sit in the garage. In 10 years, I will report back on how far beyond 200K I got! Of course, that assumes my electronics make it to the middle of the bell curve!
How many miles are we expecting? How many years? Reliability is relative to the use we expect. I have heard of some Gen 2 cars hitting 100K. I have not heard of problems. This implies, given that many have a propensity toward limited driving, that a lot of us have a decade of hassle free (assuming proper maintenance) mechanical operation. That group, after 10 years, will still be below 100K.
But we live in a semi conductor world where lifetime is determined by thermal cycles, operating temperature, and shelf life. Yes, shelf life ... more on that shortly.
Our new motors depend on computers which, while amazingly reliable, will eventually fail, regardless of the miles driven. And then our motors will stop. And we will be dependent upon the good will of Porsche to maintain a gaggle of replacement computers.
How many car companies support cars after ten years. Even Toyota couldn't replace my turbos 5 years after Supra production ended. They didn't even have a tech trained to evaluate them. Granted, it was a rare car, but still ... no inventory?
If, that is IF, these computers are available they will be service grade rebuilds. They will still be old (remember shelf life).
The leading edge of the bell curve of failures hits our electronics at 10 years. We as consumers don't like that reality. We push it off as not likely. But ... How old are your appliances, TVs, computers, phones, ...? Take an average. The center of that mentioned bell curve is 15 years.
Add vibration (what ... in a car!) and think fractured solder joints. There is no such thing as a good connection. Poor connections create spikes that damage components as well as create intermittent failures that are nearly impossible to locate. Add in weather and condensation. Want to get into voltage regulation and other situations that put a car's electronics at risk? Today's engineers are very capable, but they still are limited by physics and chemistry.
Given our use patterns perhaps we should be more worried about the electronics than the mechanics. That's the way I see it. I believe we have entered a new paradigm. With our limited driving, the time is more the enemy than the miles.
Perhaps in the future an Indie will create a retrofit electronic package using new parts. Or we will be upgrading motors to newer versions that fit into our existing frames.
Side bar: Or technology, the environment, and regulations will have us go the way of the dinosaur. A decade is an eon to technology. And for the environment. And for regulations. Figure it will be 10 years before a lot of us hit 100K. Most cars on the road are less than 10 years old. Retooling our country's fleet is no longer a 20 year involvement. Regulations will affect us, possibly before our cars wear out. Self driving cars are coming our way. Those who hold the wheel will be outlaws! Well, I hope not.
At some point we will drain our fluids, move our cars into the house, and have a wonderful center piece for the dining room table. Personally, mine is slated for the north master bedroom wall, centered under the TV! I just have to disassemble it enough to get it up that extra set of stairs to the loft ... the landing is a tight squeeze.
In the meantime, drive drive drive. I will not look back in 10 years and regret having let my car sit in the garage. In 10 years, I will report back on how far beyond 200K I got! Of course, that assumes my electronics make it to the middle of the bell curve!
02-22-2015, 04:48 PM
#198
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Warning: This may get dismal ... and long. I'm away from the house, have finished the paper, and have some free time.
How many miles are we expecting? How many years? Reliability is relative to the use we expect. I have heard of some Gen 2 cars hitting 100K. I have not heard of problems. This implies, given that many have a propensity toward limited driving, that a lot of us have a decade of hassle free (assuming proper maintenance) mechanical operation. That group, after 10 years, will still be below 100K.
But we live in a semi conductor world where lifetime is determined by thermal cycles, operating temperature, and shelf life. Yes, shelf life ... more on that shortly.
Our new motors depend on computers which, while amazingly reliable, will eventually fail, regardless of the miles driven. And then our motors will stop. And we will be dependent upon the good will of Porsche to maintain a gaggle of replacement computers.
How many car companies support cars after ten years. Even Toyota couldn't replace my turbos 5 years after Supra production ended. They didn't even have a tech trained to evaluate them. Granted, it was a rare car, but still ... no inventory?
If, that is IF, these computers are available they will be service grade rebuilds. They will still be old (remember shelf life).
The leading edge of the bell curve of failures hits our electronics at 10 years. We as consumers don't like that reality. We push it off as not likely. But ... How old are your appliances, TVs, computers, phones, ...? Take an average. The center of that mentioned bell curve is 15 years.
Add vibration (what ... in a car!) and think fractured solder joints. There is no such thing as a good connection. Poor connections create spikes that damage components as well as create intermittent failures that are nearly impossible to locate. Add in weather and condensation. Want to get into voltage regulation and other situations that put a car's electronics at risk? Today's engineers are very capable, but they still are limited by physics and chemistry.
Given our use patterns perhaps we should be more worried about the electronics than the mechanics. That's the way I see it. I believe we have entered a new paradigm. With our limited driving, the time is more the enemy than the miles.
Perhaps in the future an Indie will create a retrofit electronic package using new parts. Or we will be upgrading motors to newer versions that fit into our existing frames.
Side bar: Or technology, the environment, and regulations will have us go the way of the dinosaur. A decade is an eon to technology. And for the environment. And for regulations. Figure it will be 10 years before a lot of us hit 100K. Most cars on the road are less than 10 years old. Retooling our country's fleet is no longer a 20 year involvement. Regulations will affect us, possibly before our cars wear out. Self driving cars are coming our way. Those who hold the wheel will be outlaws! Well, I hope not.
At some point we will drain our fluids, move our cars into the house, and have a wonderful center piece for the dining room table. Personally, mine is slated for the north master bedroom wall, centered under the TV! I just have to disassemble it enough to get it up that extra set of stairs to the loft ... the landing is a tight squeeze.
In the meantime, drive drive drive. I will not look back in 10 years and regret having let my car sit in the garage. In 10 years, I will report back on how far beyond 200K I got! Of course, that assumes my electronics make it to the middle of the bell curve!
How many miles are we expecting? How many years? Reliability is relative to the use we expect. I have heard of some Gen 2 cars hitting 100K. I have not heard of problems. This implies, given that many have a propensity toward limited driving, that a lot of us have a decade of hassle free (assuming proper maintenance) mechanical operation. That group, after 10 years, will still be below 100K.
But we live in a semi conductor world where lifetime is determined by thermal cycles, operating temperature, and shelf life. Yes, shelf life ... more on that shortly.
Our new motors depend on computers which, while amazingly reliable, will eventually fail, regardless of the miles driven. And then our motors will stop. And we will be dependent upon the good will of Porsche to maintain a gaggle of replacement computers.
How many car companies support cars after ten years. Even Toyota couldn't replace my turbos 5 years after Supra production ended. They didn't even have a tech trained to evaluate them. Granted, it was a rare car, but still ... no inventory?
If, that is IF, these computers are available they will be service grade rebuilds. They will still be old (remember shelf life).
The leading edge of the bell curve of failures hits our electronics at 10 years. We as consumers don't like that reality. We push it off as not likely. But ... How old are your appliances, TVs, computers, phones, ...? Take an average. The center of that mentioned bell curve is 15 years.
Add vibration (what ... in a car!) and think fractured solder joints. There is no such thing as a good connection. Poor connections create spikes that damage components as well as create intermittent failures that are nearly impossible to locate. Add in weather and condensation. Want to get into voltage regulation and other situations that put a car's electronics at risk? Today's engineers are very capable, but they still are limited by physics and chemistry.
Given our use patterns perhaps we should be more worried about the electronics than the mechanics. That's the way I see it. I believe we have entered a new paradigm. With our limited driving, the time is more the enemy than the miles.
Perhaps in the future an Indie will create a retrofit electronic package using new parts. Or we will be upgrading motors to newer versions that fit into our existing frames.
Side bar: Or technology, the environment, and regulations will have us go the way of the dinosaur. A decade is an eon to technology. And for the environment. And for regulations. Figure it will be 10 years before a lot of us hit 100K. Most cars on the road are less than 10 years old. Retooling our country's fleet is no longer a 20 year involvement. Regulations will affect us, possibly before our cars wear out. Self driving cars are coming our way. Those who hold the wheel will be outlaws! Well, I hope not.
At some point we will drain our fluids, move our cars into the house, and have a wonderful center piece for the dining room table. Personally, mine is slated for the north master bedroom wall, centered under the TV! I just have to disassemble it enough to get it up that extra set of stairs to the loft ... the landing is a tight squeeze.
In the meantime, drive drive drive. I will not look back in 10 years and regret having let my car sit in the garage. In 10 years, I will report back on how far beyond 200K I got! Of course, that assumes my electronics make it to the middle of the bell curve!
Drive your car and enjoy it while preparing for dooms day/zombie apocalypse in your spare time, but please, stay away from your keyboard whilst drinking.
Last edited by beden1; 02-22-2015 at 05:29 PM.
02-23-2015, 06:11 PM
#200
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Join Date: May 2010
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Zombies keep popping-up...
Catastrophic failure
Another blown engine
This forum is doomed!
Edit: I'm sorry, I didn't resist.
Catastrophic failure
Another blown engine
This forum is doomed!
Edit: I'm sorry, I didn't resist.
02-23-2015, 06:22 PM
#201
Nordschleife Master
Zombies keep popping-up...
Catastrophic failure
Another blown engine
This forum is doomed!
Edit: I'm sorry, I didn't resist.
Catastrophic failure
Another blown engine
This forum is doomed!
Edit: I'm sorry, I didn't resist.
02-24-2015, 06:17 AM
#202
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Join Date: May 2010
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I'm on my second engine
Last edited by CaymanPower; 02-24-2015 at 06:54 AM.
02-24-2015, 11:43 AM
#203
Oh, I'm sure Jake Rabi of Flat6 Innovations and others think this also applies to the almighty 9A1... we are all hunted:
I'm on my second engine
Yeah, we will all be hunted. Maybe it is time to change the forest we are being hunted in.
02-24-2015, 03:07 PM
#204
Oh, I'm sure Jake Rabi of Flat6 Innovations and others think this also applies to the almighty 9A1... we are all hunted:
I'm on my second engine
I'm on my second engine
Nothing wrong with them, those trolls... just gotta be careful with how much we feed them :-)
02-24-2015, 04:53 PM
#205
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Ah, the human nature... SO predictable! I've seen this movie countless times and is called ad hominem.
Warning: this can be a little bit dense!!!
in Wikipedia
Warning: this can be a little bit dense!!!
in Wikipedia
Argumentum ad hominem – the evasion of the actual topic by directing an attack at your opponent.
An ad hominem, short for argumentum ad hominem, means responding to arguments by attacking a person's character, rather than to the content of their arguments. When used inappropriately, it is a fallacy in which a claim or argument is dismissed on the basis of some irrelevant fact or supposition about the author or the person being criticized.
The genetic fallacy, also known as fallacy of origins, fallacy of virtue, is a fallacy of irrelevance where a conclusion is suggested based solely on something or someone's origin rather than its current meaning or context. This overlooks any difference to be found in the present situation, typically transferring the positive or negative esteem from the earlier context.
The fallacy therefore fails to assess the claim on its merit. The first criterion of a good argument is that the premises must have bearing on the truth or falsity of the claim in question. Genetic accounts of an issue may be true, and they may help illuminate the reasons why the issue has assumed its present form, but they are irrelevant to its merits.
An ad hominem, short for argumentum ad hominem, means responding to arguments by attacking a person's character, rather than to the content of their arguments. When used inappropriately, it is a fallacy in which a claim or argument is dismissed on the basis of some irrelevant fact or supposition about the author or the person being criticized.
The genetic fallacy, also known as fallacy of origins, fallacy of virtue, is a fallacy of irrelevance where a conclusion is suggested based solely on something or someone's origin rather than its current meaning or context. This overlooks any difference to be found in the present situation, typically transferring the positive or negative esteem from the earlier context.
The fallacy therefore fails to assess the claim on its merit. The first criterion of a good argument is that the premises must have bearing on the truth or falsity of the claim in question. Genetic accounts of an issue may be true, and they may help illuminate the reasons why the issue has assumed its present form, but they are irrelevant to its merits.
02-24-2015, 05:05 PM
#206
You realize that my only information on you as an individual is the sum of your past posts. I know nothing else. I can't really attack you as a person because I don't know you. That said, your posts exhibit a certain pattern on a single, very narrow topic. It is unusual to see that except by people trolling for a particular outcome. I don't think I'm the only one to have noticed either.
Also, I don't really mind trolling. It can be amusing or entertaining. And I also make many mistakes, erroneous assumptions/deductions etc... I really didn't mean it as a personal attack but more an observation. In fairness, however, may I ask why you post almost exclusively on this single topic?
02-24-2015, 08:57 PM
#208
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Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
I was trying to remember why I put Caymanpower on my ignore list, now I remember.
02-24-2015, 09:14 PM
#209
Rat Balls
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2) You have your own overwhelming concerns about your car and posting about it helps you cope
3) You have another agenda
Feel free to add on...
02-24-2015, 10:07 PM
#210
Rennlist Member
Oh, I'm sure Jake Rabi of Flat6 Innovations and others think this also applies to the almighty 9A1... we are all hunted:
I'm on my second engine
I'm on my second engine
