Ripking

I live in LA but you best believe as soon as this weather clears out I'm headed out to Angeles Crest!!! Couldn't agree more!

jamesinger

^^^ in the rain yesterday = 0 cars, lots of fun!!
I noticed the Apex Taxi GT2RSMR uses PS4S for their wet setup and Cup2s for dry.

Kg11

I sure hope so, but really can't say for sure. Not many areas "locked down" during the Spanish Flu, and a lot of people died as a result; probably similar to the numbers of people who will die here if we don't lock down fully (I think it was roughly 1% of the overall population)

OTOH, not locking down meant little economic fallout. We are not seeing that right now; essentially the entire restaurant and much of the service industry is being laid off as we speak. In my state, we will see unemployment rates of 15% within 2 weeks, at a minimum. We were running at 4%, and just adding restaurant workers to that tally brings it up to 12%. Add service workers and we are at well over 15% almost immediately. People lose medical benefits and stop spending at hospitals and clinics. Restaurant servicing companies lay people off at the same time that restaurants start being late on their lease payments, which stresses landowners and their service-people. They stop spending, and soon, loans start going into default all over the place.

These are scary times. Many businesses can't just "restart" once they get the all clear in several months. Many small business owners will be wiped out, or at a minimum, dealing with having 0 employees and 0 demand, as their customer base doesn't have any money to spend.

JustinCase

Same herd mentality I saw in the 1973 and 1978 Gas Crises (I know that puts me in a CV risk group). Only then we waited long times in long lines on odd or even days to try to buy gas, which cost a fortune and often ran out before we got to the front of the line.. But we had plenty of toilet paper! Now we have all the inexpensive gas we want, but *no* toilet paper. Maybe we should try odd or even days for toilet paper.

It almost seems like we are being given divine direction to get in our cars and take long drives (that always end back at home) on curvy back roads as we seek to socially distance ourselves for the maximum amount of time. After all, toilet paper is only one of several solutions to a specific problem, but you have to have petrol to drive our cars.

groovzilla

Couldn't agree more - I remember waiting in long gas lines with my dad on odd or even days - My dad had odd plate and mom even license plates so we got lucky.
People take for granted their lifestyles and ability to buy what they want/when they want it.
This will be a good kick in the *** lesson for a lot of people thinking the good times would last forever - Lots of businesses closing for good. Huge unemployment.
I knew this Recession was coming just didn't realize how bad and possibility of Depression.

I guess we can always trade our Porsche's for toilet paper.

I'm betting people will be a hell of a lot more appreciative of the simple things in life after the CV passes on.

Stay healthy everyone and all the best from Seattle!

SpeedyD

One thing I am certain of. Regardless of how bad (or not so bad) the outcome is, people will more or less forget lessons learned and things will largely go back to normal.

It may take 6 months. It may take 18 months. It may take 3 years. Even if the unemployment rate spikes to massive levels, etc, in the end people will more or less forget.

That is consistent. Every single prognostication that "this time it is different and the impact is X" has been wrong. Financial crisis, 9/11, tech bubble, 80s crash, 70s oil.

People tend to be a) slow on the uptake to how bad things can get and then b) over extrapolate once they realize.

Overshoot upside, overshoot downside and slow to the jump in both cases.