CV effects on the 997 Market - Markets in General
03-16-2020, 03:09 PM
#16
Remember the market always goes too high (gets too optimistic) and swings too low (too pessimistic). I am not convinced we are at the bottom yet but I do know the market will eventually rebound - and likely more quickly than the pundits say.
Here is how human psychology unfortunately works (mirrored or amplified by media):
* Coronavirus is not a huge issue, look at how many people die from the flu, same thing, dont “panic” (ie take small precautions) - stock market has small hiccups but also bounces during some trading days
* Oh wait, it actually looks worse than we thought. Now, because people didnt “panic” (in reality, more like taking steps reflecting the risk, including some very short-term sacrifices like staying home)... now we “need” to panic... - stock market now down about 30% from peak and reflecting more or less a full blown recession plus perhaps more..
Follow the heard mentality, poor leadership, false equivalencies ... too little too late in the response.
BUT the market reaction has that same mentality. Herd behavior, actions that are more volatile than reality (good or bad)...
I would expect a floor of around 18,000 (DJIA) but also that in 18 months from now the market will be back to 24,000+ and then a slow slog back to 29,000. I would not hesitate to put some cash in now and over the next few weeks / months add to it opportunistically.
For cars I have a bunch of sports cars that I assume have dropped modestly (none of which ever “bubbled up”). 997(.2) values I assume will drop 10-20% in the near term. Now there ARE a couple much more expensive collector cars that I will be watching out for. ;-)
Here is how human psychology unfortunately works (mirrored or amplified by media):
* Coronavirus is not a huge issue, look at how many people die from the flu, same thing, dont “panic” (ie take small precautions) - stock market has small hiccups but also bounces during some trading days
* Oh wait, it actually looks worse than we thought. Now, because people didnt “panic” (in reality, more like taking steps reflecting the risk, including some very short-term sacrifices like staying home)... now we “need” to panic... - stock market now down about 30% from peak and reflecting more or less a full blown recession plus perhaps more..
Follow the heard mentality, poor leadership, false equivalencies ... too little too late in the response.
BUT the market reaction has that same mentality. Herd behavior, actions that are more volatile than reality (good or bad)...
I would expect a floor of around 18,000 (DJIA) but also that in 18 months from now the market will be back to 24,000+ and then a slow slog back to 29,000. I would not hesitate to put some cash in now and over the next few weeks / months add to it opportunistically.
For cars I have a bunch of sports cars that I assume have dropped modestly (none of which ever “bubbled up”). 997(.2) values I assume will drop 10-20% in the near term. Now there ARE a couple much more expensive collector cars that I will be watching out for. ;-)
03-16-2020, 03:39 PM
#17
Three Wheelin'
My wife is in the mortgage business and her phone has been ringing non-stop for weeks now. The Fed move didn't have any impact on mortgage rates as it's short term lending driven. Mortgage rates have actually gone up in the past couple of weeks due to simple supply and demand. The lenders are burried in refis from the lowest rates ever for the past month or so they have actually raised rates because they simply don't have capacity for any new business right now. Also, if you are in the process of a refi - get it closed quick! There's a possibility that it will be difficult to appraisers, title folks etc. out to your house and closing. Everything my wife is hearing from industry folks is saying they don't expect mortgage rates to come down substantially.
03-16-2020, 04:15 PM
#18
Originally Posted by SpeedyD
)...
I would expect a floor of around 18,000 (DJIA) but also that in 18 months from now the market will be back to 24,000+ and then a slow slog back to 29,000. I would not hesitate to put some cash in now and over the next few weeks / months add to it opportunistically.
I would expect a floor of around 18,000 (DJIA) but also that in 18 months from now the market will be back to 24,000+ and then a slow slog back to 29,000. I would not hesitate to put some cash in now and over the next few weeks / months add to it opportunistically.
Cw
03-16-2020, 05:01 PM
#20
Picking the bottom perfectly is not necessary in times like this. The key is the general approach. It is most painful for people fully invested already. For those with significant cash balances, picking at 21k, 20k, 19 or 18k makes little difference vs not participating in the recovery. Heck even for those that bought in at 24k or 25k vs being in at 29k... :-)
I really hope the pandemic is halted soon - now that people are finally taking it seriously and because markets are panicking... I am actually somewhat optimistic.
I really hope the pandemic is halted soon - now that people are finally taking it seriously and because markets are panicking... I am actually somewhat optimistic.
03-16-2020, 05:48 PM
#21
I'm flush with cash and have no intent to retire in the next 20 years so for me, this is a buying opportunity. I have no sympathy for highly leveraged individuals or companies because you take over-sized winnings on the upside, you take over-sized losses on the downside... that's how leverage works.
I have the utmost confidence that the US stocks and companies will be one of if not THE best places to be invested over the next 20 years. Can't wait to see where prices go for assets or toys and maybe I'll be able to scoop things up for a great price.
This is all assuming we don't pull an I Am Legend scenario and rush a "vaccine" out to market which ends up creating the zombie apocalypse.
I have the utmost confidence that the US stocks and companies will be one of if not THE best places to be invested over the next 20 years. Can't wait to see where prices go for assets or toys and maybe I'll be able to scoop things up for a great price.
This is all assuming we don't pull an I Am Legend scenario and rush a "vaccine" out to market which ends up creating the zombie apocalypse.
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DesmoSD (03-16-2020)
03-16-2020, 06:26 PM
#22
Three Wheelin'
I'm flush with cash and have no intent to retire in the next 20 years so for me, this is a buying opportunity. I have no sympathy for highly leveraged individuals or companies because you take over-sized winnings on the upside, you take over-sized losses on the downside... that's how leverage works.
I have the utmost confidence that the US stocks and companies will be one of if not THE best places to be invested over the next 20 years. Can't wait to see where prices go for assets or toys and maybe I'll be able to scoop things up for a great price.
This is all assuming we don't pull an I Am Legend scenario and rush a "vaccine" out to market which ends up creating the zombie apocalypse.
I have the utmost confidence that the US stocks and companies will be one of if not THE best places to be invested over the next 20 years. Can't wait to see where prices go for assets or toys and maybe I'll be able to scoop things up for a great price.
This is all assuming we don't pull an I Am Legend scenario and rush a "vaccine" out to market which ends up creating the zombie apocalypse.
03-16-2020, 07:21 PM
#23
Instructor
Disagree that this is anything like the flu. It isn’t similar to the flu (10-30x mortality rate, no vaccine, higher infection rate) but unfortunately that myth was perpetuated and caught on resulting in this mess being much worse than it could have been if people took it seriously at the outset.
Sorry for the run on sentence!
This market will be painful but the drop should bounce back faster than 2009 because the systemic risks are different - assuming that people finally take this seriously and STAY HOME.
Sorry for the run on sentence!
This market will be painful but the drop should bounce back faster than 2009 because the systemic risks are different - assuming that people finally take this seriously and STAY HOME.
03-16-2020, 08:13 PM
#24
it is serious, like the Spansih flu. And like the Spanish flu, we will recover and flourish. It is much more serious for the senior crowd. People will die, infection rates will level, recovering patients will outnumber new infections. The media will lose some interest and move on. Markets will rebound but may take years to get to new highs. If you are in the market for a 997 and you don't want to make money buying close to lows in stock market, than it is a good time to be you.
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DesmoSD (03-17-2020)
03-16-2020, 11:07 PM
#25
Burning Brakes
I have been patiently watching BAT and other web sites, looking for my next Porsche. With any luck, I may be able to find something a lot nicer than I thought I could afford... if I live... I am definitely in the high risk group.
03-17-2020, 01:47 AM
#26
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
If I drop dead I'll have my wife post it so you know my cars available.
I'll try really hard not to die in the car but just to let you hard to please buyers know, I've got hefty bags and extra plastic on the seats and carpets and Pine Tree scent hanging from mirror.
You guys please remember I'd like to get at least $36K
I'll try really hard not to die in the car but just to let you hard to please buyers know, I've got hefty bags and extra plastic on the seats and carpets and Pine Tree scent hanging from mirror.
You guys please remember I'd like to get at least $36K
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03-17-2020, 02:04 AM
#27
Nordschleife Master
All,
Saw the other post in our 997 Forum regarding 997 values and thought we could get a discussion going on the CV's effect on the 997 Market.
As a huge recession looms closer every day, I think we all need to face the fact that the past 10 years have been bliss with majority of Porsche car buyers & sellers--->Cars sell quickly, cars are purchased effortlessly and majority of buyers/sellers flush with cash.
Times are changing now and I believe will only spiral downward with not only the 997 market but all toy categories as well as housing market/etc.
Of course some look at the good side as it being opportunity to get deals on Luxury items.
I'm bummed about the outlook, knew a recession was going to hit at some point but none of us expected something like this with such a stranglehold on the economy.
The plus+ side is we have our cars to tinker with/drive around and help escape the current CV situation. Iif anything the streets are quiet and much more fun driving around these days.
Streets in Seattle remind me of what it was like 35 years ago when population was 1/2.
I wish everyone the best and the best of health to everyone. Looking forward to getting this CV past us and getting back to normalcy.
Saw the other post in our 997 Forum regarding 997 values and thought we could get a discussion going on the CV's effect on the 997 Market.
As a huge recession looms closer every day, I think we all need to face the fact that the past 10 years have been bliss with majority of Porsche car buyers & sellers--->Cars sell quickly, cars are purchased effortlessly and majority of buyers/sellers flush with cash.
Times are changing now and I believe will only spiral downward with not only the 997 market but all toy categories as well as housing market/etc.
Of course some look at the good side as it being opportunity to get deals on Luxury items.
I'm bummed about the outlook, knew a recession was going to hit at some point but none of us expected something like this with such a stranglehold on the economy.
The plus+ side is we have our cars to tinker with/drive around and help escape the current CV situation. Iif anything the streets are quiet and much more fun driving around these days.
Streets in Seattle remind me of what it was like 35 years ago when population was 1/2.
I wish everyone the best and the best of health to everyone. Looking forward to getting this CV past us and getting back to normalcy.
So many variables that make it difficult to assess. A lot depends on how long the CV will be with us. First it was..."oh it will go away when it warms up in April". Now they're talking July or August. And one physician interviewed today predicted that the schools that have closed will remain closed for the rest of the year. Millions of parents will have to stay home from work to take care of their kids. How many of these parents have paid sick leave and for how long? Add to that all the people affected by the closings of small businesses, restaurants, sporting events and the list goes on. We're talking millions and millions of people suddenly with no income for a length of time nobody really knows. These are uncharted waters.
As for the 997 market, hit and miss. Some put a minimal amount down and have large monthly payments. Those who did that may have a mortgage on their home too and limited savings. On the flipside you have those who's car and house are both paid for along with a healthy cash reserve. All kinds of scenarious out there.
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TheMurse (03-17-2020)
03-17-2020, 05:01 AM
#29
I can't buy another car as I have no more garage space. If the housing market goes down to anything like 2009, I'm all in! In the mean time, I'm going to tinker with my 911 and drive the heck out of it. Please do not take this virus like a flu, more like a flu you can't get rid of and super contagious. This is assuming you're young and healthy. Stay safe and most of all stay home!
03-17-2020, 10:26 PM
#30
Three Wheelin'
I can't buy another car as I have no more garage space. If the housing market goes down to anything like 2009, I'm all in! In the mean time, I'm going to tinker with my 911 and drive the heck out of it. Please do not take this virus like a flu, more like a flu you can't get rid of and super contagious. This is assuming you're young and healthy. Stay safe and most of all stay home!
BTW you still oew me on our side bet
