2 factors are at play here: relative value for the owner (in $ terms) and theoretical appreciation value. The first is relatively steady (assuming a consistent pool of buyers with cash to spend) and the 2nd is speculative. They aren't necessarily related.

I will argue that a low-mile 997.1 C2S gives $30-40,000 worth of driving pleasure, and will not depreciate much further due to this fact (assuming ample liquidity in the market). Even new today, what can you buy for $40k that compares? Nothing really. Also, bore scoring aside, the cars are comparatively cheap to own and operate. Therefore, they won't drop much in value. Same with the 997.1 Turbo, although I wouldn't say that they are worth a $35k premium to me, they may be to some people, and also will likely hold their value. Both are great cars.

When you get to the 997.2, especially the manual, we start to get to the harder to quantify but very real "expected to appreciate" question. This is a real issue on some cars that have seen significant appreciation over the past few years (PTS cars aside, which actually are collectible: if you want a Mexico Blue 997.2 GTS, you will pay the asking price when one comes up for sale here in about 3 years. For everything else, the supply is out there, and nothing about the 997.2 justifies a 80% price jump over the 997.1, nor does it justify a higher price than a 991, which is arguably just as good of a car (we have and do own both). There are plenty of 997.2 manuals on the market: they should command a "newer and better" premium over the 997.1, but 80% is absurd when the cars are compared side by side; it isn't an 80% better car. Obviously, any further price appreciation should already be priced into the market (minus the cost of capital to hold it). The fact that we are seeing price cuts already tells me that speculators were bidding up the 997.2, and as these speculators leave the market, the 997.2 manuals will approach their utility value, sans speculation. What is that value? Well, for starters, they are a few years newer, so add $5-10k. Plus additional performance; that is obviously worth something. I could see a 2006 C2S vs. 2009 C2S at similar mileage and condition being "fairly priced" at anywhere from a 35 to 55% premium over the older car.

Long story short, I would expect to see some decreases on 997.1 models due to lack of liquidity, and larger price cuts on 997.2 models based on lack of liquidity+loss of speculative buyers. Maybe 10% in the former and 15-20% in the latter.

 

997s are already there. People have bought them a few years ago, drove them for 20k-40k miles and sold them for what they bought them for. 997.1 non-Mezger engines are pretty flat right now or may drop a couple more thousand. 997.2 manual coupes are definitely flat if not increasing slightly.

If you want a 997, there's no point in waiting any longer unless you want a really high mileage example as those will be the only ones that ever see mid to high $20s, and they'd likely be Tiptronic equipped cars or Cabriolets. If your looking for a Tip, Cab for some reason, lots of lower cost cars out there.

 

I will inject some facts into the market discussion. During 2008/2009 the broader markets and in some locations the real estate markets dropped a lot more than most used cars. We are talking peak to trough of 50%+ decline for the DJIA. Used sports cars in the same period dropped about 20% and with some exceptions in the $250k-$1M range (F40s, Carrera GTs) the drop was closer to 40%. New car prices (competing with used cars) dropped around 15% and of course sales volumes plummeted but largely due to the real estate crisis... at that time a lot of vehicle purchases in the US were done through HELOCs. This is not nearly the same today, thankfully.

Personally, I moved about 90% to cash 12 months ago. Moving slowly back in at current levels and will assume a further market decline and will add to the position slowly, with some cash on the side for a potential car purchase... My own cars will only get sold if I decide to add a much more expensive car (think “dream car”) that is steeply discounted.

Remember to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy!

 

What year is your car? If a mid year or late year 2005 or a 2006 through 2008 your car has the larger IMS bearing already. Many believe the larger bearing is fail proof while I think the majority has it right that it's not fail proof but only has around a 5% chance of failing based on multiple polls posted here. The smaller bearing on the early 2005's are fairly inexpensive to improve on and with the low failure rate of the larger bearing, ny guess for what it's worth is that you would not recover the cost of the mods you mention since they sound pretty expensive.

Like you said, that kind of modification would seem most suitable for someone planning on keeping the car forever.

 

Frankly right now is the time to buy a classic car with collectability attributes. Not sure a 997 fits this metric though - it is not "classic" and not collectable. Nevertheless, the collectables are at deflated prices, so you get in cheap, and it is a "safe" place for your money right now. Plus you can enjoy it more than a cash or bond investment. You'll need to hold it awhile, but that's okay too.
Anyway. skip the 997 and get an early 911 or a 356, or even certain iterations of the 928.

 

Given the present world crisis and the financial impacts that will be directly hit by it, The last thing to buy is anything that might be considered as an investment, and a lot of people foolishly see some cars that way. Be ready to lose quite a bit of money because of depreciation on anything purchased with the mentality of yesterday because tomorrow will most likely bring lots of rude awakening.

 

Do not agree with this at all. Of course it depends on the car, for instance, parking your money in a Carrera GS/GT is a damn good idea right now. There are a lot of good classic investment grade cars that will hold value all through this economic mess. They certainly won't do worse than cash or most bonds, and are safer. Again, I do not include any 997 in this equation, maybe save for a turbo or one of the other very special and limited performance models.

 

Best time to buy is if others are forced to sell or panic. History repeats, repeatedly.

People talking Dow to 30k+ a month ago may now be saying Dow to 10k. Possible, sure, but then it is time to buy buy buy. Even at today’s levels down 30% from peak is a heck of a lot better than buying at peak (which millions of investors did of course).

And getting back to peak is a 50% gain...

There are some markets where folks are crazy leveraged (Sydney, Vancouver, Toronto/GTA, San Fran, Cali coast) and will get absolutely slammed with any spike in unemployment. Regardless of mortgage rates. NYC real estate is already down about 25% from peak 3 or 4 years ago...

The market was already primed for a recession. This is just accelerating and making the market correction more severe.

For 997s it will barely make a dent. We are talking $5-$10k value impacts on $40-$60k cars. The interesting cars are the ones that some dealers were buying up and that were already softening a lot (Ferrari market, aircooled 911s, some other limited cars). Those are primed to take a beating.

I have no interest in giving up my 4S - I dont need to worry if it drops $10k-$20k for a year during the correction (doubt it will but who knows). If I did I shouldnt own a Porsche... I will be keeping my out for some of those other cars that people have been bidding up for the last few years!

 

maybe its finally the chance for me to get the nice 993 S or Turbo of my childhood dreams!

 

I beg to differ on the Turbo's being more of just a hwy toy. Not met a standard NA C2 / 4S or Cayman that can get away from me in the mountain twisties. Turbos are great fun in the Mountains / Canyons, you just have to know how to use the torque and a bit less rpm.





Also, this guy does very good car valuation / depreciation vids.

Here's his on the Porsche 997 Turbos

 

Larry Kudlow thought the financial impact of the virus would be minimal and recommended buying these "dips" as late as two weeks ago. He backed that up by assuring anyone watching or listening that the virus was close to "airtight contained". Anyone who listened and followed his advice is down somewhere around 20% since.
Personal choices here. For me, car paid for, house paid for and no debt. All investments in cash until the hysteria/panic and misinformation subsides. Let's face it, these are uncharted waters and a lot of the opinions out there are guesses or opinions that one way or another work in favor of the the person offering his/her opinion. White House treasury secretary now talking 20% unemployment as a possibility: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/polit...rus/index.html

 

"Many believe the larger bearing is fail proof while I think the majority has it right that it's not fail proof but only has around a 5% chance of failing based on multiple polls posted here"

5% for later Carreras? Based on Polls? Assuming that is correct and considering that most 911 owners do not post here should make the real world risk less than 1%.

 

This isn’t a recommendation to buy when the market was down 2 or 5% and certainly not to go all-in. That said, at current levels you will see “losses” on paper as volatility and uncertainty reign supreme. I had several people ask my opinion a couple weeks ago and I told them to wait.

At levels 30% below peak this is much more akin to when the DJIA went from 14,000 to 10,000 or 9,000 in 2009. Market mentality went from irrationally exuberant to prognostications that the stock market wouldnt recover for another 15 years. Market bottomed nearly 30% lower than those levels but it was not meaningful in terms of volumes traded. Not meaningful for those who bought at 10k and held on... they did more than fine...

Anyone who bought at 10,000 did a lot better vs those who sold at 10,000 ...

Again, following the herd leads to slaughter. Much smarter to recognize the market swings to extremes.

A few weeks ago I was yelling to whoever I could that COVID should be taken very seriously up front or that the consequences would be severe. Now we are facing those severe consequences but the reaction by the market has swung too far to the other side... including misunderstanding market commentary. The 20% unemployment comment was saying without intervention ... that is if relief was held up due to politics. The way you quoted it is exactly why the market in times like these overreacts. Misconstruing info and mis-extrapolating.

I was a market bear but now I am rationally bullish for 5-10 year returns from this level, regardless of near term gyrations.

I do hope some folks sell some very nice cars at massive discounts as I will be a buyer there too :-)