incoming992s

Interesting quick read.
https://europe.autonews.com/guest-columnist/porsche-911-outperforms-taycan-ev-key-metric

WCE

Taycan outsold the 911 in 2021 and would have in 2022 if not for supply chain issues...
As far as unit pricing, I think people are more willing to splurge on their occasional use car (most 911's) vs their daily drivers (most taycan's).

detansinn

I can attest from the payout that I received for my totaled Taycan 4S that Taycan values are indeed quite robust, even by insurance company valuation standards.

Taycan allocations remain tough to come by and the waits are long. While not quite as silly, the Taycan market is very much 911-like -- these cars hold their value well. And you know what, they are totally worth it.

ipse dixit

A lot of the price fluctuations in the EV market are a result of lack of supply and choices (i.e., not just sheer number of cars, but variety of cars and SUV/Trucks), government incentives (tax credits, etc.) and saturation of demand.

When the Taycan was first introduced in 2019, there were literally only 3 or 4 pure EVs on the market (Tesla S, 3 and X), Leaf, BMW i3, Chevy Volt (and maybe the Prius Prime). And none of those (save for maybe the Model S were competitors to the Taycan.

Fast forward to current day, some 4-5 years later, there are many more options on the market in the Taycan price-range, from the existing Tesla, to the new Audi e-tron GT, MB EQS, to the BMW i7, to the Lucid. Add to that the expiration of subsidies and incentives, it's no surprise that the Taycan would experience some price deflation and resale price pressure.

nyca

The problem with the EV resale market is - the technology in current EVs is very young, and will see rapid improvement in just a few short years. In 5 years, the battery will be half the weight, provide 25% more range, and charge in half the time. What's a current technology Taycan going to be worth in light of that? Expensive EVs aren't like expensive ICE cars, where the tech is basically fully matured. Once the battery technology inflection point is imminent, dump what you have right away or face a big resale hit on it. That doesn't apply just to the Taycan, it applies to Teslas as well.

lmmo

You wish. My first EV was in 2019. Fast forward to 2023 and you’re still buying the same battery stuff. Yes, technology will evolve but it’s not moving that fast.

ipse dixit

I think this depends on what you mean by the "technology" in your sentence.

Yes, the current state of Lithium-ion batteries used in most EV's have not advanced significantly in weight or range (or SOC) in the past five years; however, the cost to produce them has significantly decreased -- so much so that you can now get a EV for 40k, or in price parity with pure ICE cars, which was not the case some 5 years ago. So if we include advancements in scale, production efficiency and cost, in the term "technology" then there has indeed been advancements.

Making things cheaper or more affordable to market to the masses is, in my opinion, an advancement in and of itself.

Nein Eleven

Current battery technology is almost fully optimized so any capacity gains are coming from larger packs, performance gains from improvements in the drive motors, and charging gains from the architecture voltage. The next frontier in battery technology is solid state batteries (no liquid electrolyte) with potential to double range and reduce charging times to 15min or something, but there are significant technical hurdles to be overcome. Toyota has already stated that their solid state batteries are coming in 2025 but I remain skeptical and think that closer to 2030 is more likely (and similar to your timeline).

nyca

Well, EVs are never going to gain widespread acceptance with 4500 pound weights and the current range/charging dynamics. The early adopters (mostly people who already have another ICE car) can get them to 15-20% of the market (with Tesla getting most of those sales), but some major improvements need to come to meet these government bans on ICE cars by 2030.

pk27

Good post, agree 100%. Any current EV is going to be worthless junk in 10 years, just like any other tech from 10 years ago.

ipse dixit

Just some food for thought


Source: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-...e-Taycan-d2974

ipse dixit

Here's a similar chart for the 911


Source: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-...rsche-911-d404

WernerE

Solid state batteries will be to current EV batteries what disc brakes were to drum brakes. I can wait.