TXshaggy

Well, let me first say I hope sanctions work and the suffering is minimized.

But the EU has put itself in a strategic crack by being largely dependent on Russian fuel which arrives via a myriad of pipelines. Strategic reserves and alternate shipping is not an easy replacement option for a continent.
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/russias...ukraine-crisis


Overall, Russia supplies about one-third of European natural gas consumption, used for winter heating as well as electricity generation and industrial production. The European Union (EU) also turns to Russia for more than one-quarter of its crude oil imports, the bloc’s largest single energy source.

Some EU states are far more dependent than others. Portugal and Spain use little Russian energy, while Germany, the largest European economy, gets more than half of its natural gas and more than 30 percentof its crude oil supplies from Russia.

CodyBigdog

Yes, all true, and yes, there will be some pain, on both sides. But good for the EU for taking a firm position against Russsia, that ultimately, could end up biting them. After all, they could have taken a Russian sanctions path, that had minimal to no consequences to EU countries. Good for them for standing up. Integrity should matter.

aggie57

You’d think, and hope, that at some stage China will see what’s happening and say enough. If Russian troops do indeed assault the civilian population of Kyiv the optics on all levels will be horrific and hard for China to deny regardless of philosophical commonality between the two countries.

CodyBigdog

I think the word, “hope” is the key word. But not sure that they will?

aggie57

well, that is the key isn’t it. Humans rely heavily on ‘hope’.

CodyBigdog

Can you think of any recent examples of the Chinese Government taking a humanitarian / human rights approach?

We’ll see?

rouxeny

i think China has been hoping that the Russians would be quickly successful and that the international outcry and response would not become what it has. If the world had sat around and watched, the way it did when Crimea was invaded, that would have been a pretty clear sign to China that nobody would do anything when they eventually invaded Taiwan.

Even though, it’s clear nobody wants to risk a shooting war between global superpowers over Ukraine. And it seems pretty clear, not over Taiwan either.

China also holds many more levers on negatively affecting the global economy than Russia does.

CodyBigdog

Taiwan has many top chip manufacturers, including a biggy, TSMC. The hard reality is the US military heavily relies on Taiwan to provide critical chip technology to many of our military systems.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/how-...trial-complex/

China invading Taiwan is nothing like Russia invading Ukraine, and China knows how important Taiwan is to our military. Unless the US chip fabrication industry can re-establish it’s dominance, again…which takes decades…. I would say, with a high degree of confidence the US would go to war with China…at least a limited Naval and air war.

Luckily for Taiwan, they have about 100 miles of water separating them and the mainland. If England had been attached to the European mainland, and not separated from France by 20 miles of water, I suspect Hitler would have occupied England….thus eliminating the allied assault @Normandy.

ipse dixit

Bingo.

You win the prize for the smartest post yet.

horns

I'm expecting my car to be delayed.

I'm out of my league here, but I've long wondered why countries have sold their souls creating dependencies on countries like Russia and China. Money is the only thing that comes to mind, but did the west really struggle to the point that it needed to make China into the behemoth it is today? Europe shouldn't be dependent on Russia for something as vital as energy, and now the world is reliant on China for a range of products. I'll pay extra for an alternative to a Chinese made product and damn sure won't buy their knock offs.

Happy to get an education on the topic.

CodyBigdog

Not rocket science. In terms of buying Chinese goods, I think it’s pretty simple - cost. If Chinese goods were as expensive, or more expensive as other country’s similar products/goods, I’m sure people would not buy them. Not everybody is as well off as the average Porsche buyer, and for most, every penny counts. Tariffs can only do so much to help level the field, when the US also exports a lot of agricultural and other products to China. As long as we export a lot to China, a trade war never ends well for the consumer. We learned that lesson during the last administration. In theory, having strong trade relations between countries does help to keep the peace…in theory.

As fas as energy dependence on Russia, like most things in Democratic, capalistic countries….decisions are based on cost/economics. Most politicians never look long term. I think the EU has learned a valuable lesson in not being so myopic when it comes to critical things like energy. Second story down;

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...cb6310069d911c

CodyBigdog

Actions have consequences:

https://apple.news/AVqkpZt34R6qFYpVsDBFExw

”Germany is committing 100 billion euros ($112.7 billion) to a fund for its armed services and will ramp up its defense spending above 2% of its gross domestic product, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during a special session of the Bundestag on Sunday.It has become clear that "we need to invest significantly more in the security of our country, in order to protect our freedom and our democracy," Scholz said”

Last thing Putin wants is a heavily armed and united Germany. Uber alles.

Dear Vlad, if you’re reading (maybe you own a Porsche?)…..see what your invasion of Ukraine has spawned? From Newton’s 3rd law, For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

smiles11

Though I don’t think it will have a massive impact on production; it will have a profound effect on cost of production & transportation. 40% of Europes natural gas; and about 27% of their oil comes from Russia. Whereas the US only imports 3% of their oil & gas from Russia.

CodyBigdog

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...er-2022-02-24/

“BERLIN, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Germany can guarantee security of supply even without Russian gas or oil, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Thursday."We will have to buy more gas, but also coal from other countries," Habeck told broadcaster ZDF, adding that Germany, which gets half its gas from Russia, was too dependent on Russian oil and gas.

Habeck said he expects oil and gas prices to continue to rise in the short term following Russia's attack on Ukraine but said he hoped prices will later level off at a manageable level.

Habeck said he didn't see the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which the German government had put on hold earlier this week, as being able to go online in the short or medium term.“

Russian disruptions in the delivery of oil/gas will certainly cause energy prices to spike, but that is expected to only be temporary.

cdk4219

And China for the COVID-19 strain.