ipse dixit

It's not just about importing products into Russia. Both VW and PAG, as well as MB, have factories and production facilities in Russia. So sanctions on Russia, in and of itself, will not necessarily alter the production dynamics of these companies vis-a-vis sales of cars in Russia.

chance6

Ukraine still has Chernobyl.
"There's graphite on the roof"

Personally I think the good 'ol, U.S., the stars and stripes, will benefit of a few more added allocations due to the Russkies missing out.

"The Russians don't take a dump son without a plan"...their plan was to invade Ukraine and for that they will suffer the subtraction of GT3 allocations to the Americans!

rouxeny

Just read that VW shut down 2 factories due to lack of parts usually supplied by Ukraine.

Shipping in the Black Sea is also disrupted with two ships attacked.

This may not turn into a global shooting war, but the economic impacts will quickly spread world-wide. It’s interesting to see that the development of globalized economies, supply chains, and trade agreements are not functioning as conflict deterrents as would have been hoped. Actually almost the opposite.

OliverK68

Along with attacking the home of my ancestors, I can now add post-Covid production delays for my 992 to my reasons for hating Putin.

detansinn

It's pretty clear that this conflict is going to be very disruptive. Porsche has already updated its supply chain messages.

icanthelpit

It’s sickening to me just reading Germany is the sole EU nation holdout against banning Russia from the SWIFT system. Seems like Germans have a short memory of the harm and destruction Russia caused them in the past century. If I was not committed to a Porsche purchase I would give second thoughts to buying another after being loyal to the brand since 1985!

CodyBigdog

Ditto.

Just asking…do you have a link to the source of the info?

I’m surprised that Germany would do that, in light of the fact that they halted the Russian oil pipeline. That seems like a pretty big blow to Russia and to Germany/EU countries. To me, anyway, that seems to send a mixed message?

Here is a bit more on SWIFT sanctions…I suspect, as the invasion continues, and Russian atrocities begin to leak out, this SWIFT card will eventually be played. But whether all the possible sanctions are levied now, or weeks/months from now, it won’t deter Russia from completing it’s major objective of installing a puppet, pro-Russian Government in Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/polit...ift/index.html

I think the take-away lesson from the Russian invasion, for some (and you know who I am talking about), that Putin’s Russia is not to be trusted, and is no friend of Democracy. Welcome to Cold War II. And to think, Russia wanted to join NATO. 😂 Bwhahahahaha.

rouxeny

Seems like ejection from swift will be pretty meaningless if it’s done after Kiev falls, or the government collapses, or is killed.

CodyBigdog

Let’s start with the premise that Putin is no idiot. Former KGB Colonel, who basically owned the former President. He’s very methodical and calculating at what he does. It’s a game of chess to him…always thinking 6 moves ahead. That said, it has been reported that such sanctions, like a SWIFT sanction, have already been figured into his equation. It’s no coincidence that Putin met with Chinese leaders before he invaded. So, IMO, Putin had decided to invade Ukraine, long before he actually did. Or as Julius Caesar said, “alea iacta est”. The die is cast.

Putin’s (fake) “demand” (actually, never an issue) was: assurances that Ukraine would never join NATO. But that was just a smoke screen, because when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, the border/conflict with Ukraine, insured Ukraine would never be allowed to join NATO so long as there was a territorial dispute. That’s in NATO’s charter. Since Russia controls Crimea, they already had the veto power to Ukraine ever joining NATO. Just more Putin lies and smoke screen.

Putin wants one thing, and no sanctions will deter his mission to install a puppet, pro-Russian Government in Ukraine.

CodyBigdog

As a second generation German-American, I am proud to see Germany standing with the Ukrainian people:

Germany on Saturday dramatically ramped up its backing for Ukraine's battle against Russia, approving weapons deliveries for Kyiv in a policy U-turn and agreeing to limit Moscow's access to the SWIFT interbank system.

Read in AFP News: https://apple.news/Adq7Rv6BeRMaj3lpcPcPgjQ

ipse dixit

I don't think disconnecting Russia from SWIFT is as black-and-white as some may thing -- or, in other words, a lose for Putin/Russia and a win for the ROW.

Disconnecting Russian from SWIFT would have significant consequences for the ROW as it would for Russia. For example, EU trade and energy from Russia would need to be replaced by the United States instead, meaning EU consumer prices would significantly increase. SWIFT also would be seen as untrustworthy by emerging nations and would cease to be global, making it more expensive and disruptive for everyone, EU, Russia, United States, etc.

rk-d

And this could be detrimental to the USD as the world's reserve currency.

All part of the calculus I'm sure - I think it's a very nuanced issue. That said, I believe it's coming. Italy and Cyprus now support it and opposition is softening in Germany. The bigger threat of Putin making a move on NATO presupposes the establishment of a Ukranian vassal state. Defending against that possibility is probably starting to make a lot of sense to the Continent right now.

TXshaggy

From CNN

“Removing Russia from SWIFT would damage Russia but also big economies in Europe and impact energy exports to the continent.

It would make international financial transactions more difficult, delivering a shock to Russian companies and their foreign customers -- particularly buyers of oil and gas exports denominated in US dollars.”

When they say “impact exports to the continent”…Germany imports about 50% of it’s fuel needs from Russia. Don’t know about the rest of the EU, but suspect it’s pretty high. If you turn off SWIFT to Russian institutions don’t know how you’d pay for your Russian fuel.

Sanctions only work when you have leverage, Russia can turn the heat off in Europe during winter…

CodyBigdog

This wouldn’t be the first time that SWIFT has been used to sanction a country’s banks:

https://www.swift.com/about-us/legal...-and-sanctions

Has SWIFT ever disconnected banks for sanctions purposes?

In March 2012, pursuant to international and multilateral action to intensify financial sanctions against Iran, EU Regulation 267/2012 was passed. The Regulation prohibits specialised financial messaging providers, such as SWIFT, from providing services to EU-sanctioned Iranian banks. SWIFT is incorporated under Belgian law and has to comply with this decision as confirmed by its home country government. SWIFT implemented the regulatory obligation by disconnecting the related EU-sanctioned banks.

Yea, I know, Iran is not Russia. But still, there is a precedent, and don’t believe banks stopped using SWIFT? The sanction, I believe, was lifted in 2016.

CodyBigdog

Without a doubt, any sanctions are a double-edged sword, and many parties besides Russia will be impacted. But short of an all out war, which nobody wants, at least I hope so, sanctions is all you got. Or, shall we just ignore Russian aggression in Europe? We have plenty of historical examples that show ignoring aggression in Europe only leads to escalation.

As far as Russia “turning off the heat during the Winter”…well, good thing Spring is just around the corner. 😎 That said, no European Country is 100%, or even 75% or even 50% dependent on Russian oil or natural gas. I suspect other world suppliers will step in to fill the gap…although, perhaps, at a higher price? So, I suspect the ultimate cost to the West’s sanctions, will be higher price?

But as someone who tries to see things in a positive light, this may lead to countries re-thinking their global energy strategy, to minimize dependence on any one source of energy.