GTS v GT3 v S mega test
11-09-2021, 01:00 PM
#61
Ah, good to know. Just looked him up, He was in the majors from 2005-2015, mainly with the Rangers (ERA of 3.74), and is owner and founder of a motor sports team. Very cool.
Last edited by CodyBigdog; 11-09-2021 at 01:26 PM.
11-09-2021, 07:44 PM
#62
Platinum Dealership
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Cody I'll just gloss over the backhanded accusations...most importantly is that I've been on RL for 20+ years (since I started shopping for 993 in 2001 as a lurker) and have sold a lot of cars to rennlisters, bought parts off rennlisters, etc. I'm here (and advertise here) because it's a great place to shop for cars and when I get pinged into threads to correct misinformation (such as the sport classic having 640hp...it does not)
Discussing the chip shortage: the chip shortage will absolutely persist way past Q1 2022. It will likely persist until Q2 2023. IAll the brands I sell are indicating that production will be very far below targets from 2019/2020 which was in a lot of ways a high water mark. Q1 2022 is the set of builds that we already have visibility on...as I was trying to explain. Just imagine the 'transitory inflation' commentary being a huge lie from Jerome Powell for the last 12 months finally biting them...anyone saying 'the problem will end soon' is wrong. Always. It's a psychological appeasement tactic. PsyOp 101.
In regards to GTS vs S vs Base etc...they have been making S and base and 4S variants for about 2 years now, already. So the GTS is just starting...which is why they are ramping it up...from 0. So, GTS production is already thousands of units behind S/4S/Base cars...does that make sense? They will probably equalize it in 2022/2023 but they have tons of people clamoring for the GTS variants (and they're awesome).
I am not going to be responsible for leaking the specific classified information but once it gets released (for years MJONES published them) I'm willing to confirm.
Discussing the chip shortage: the chip shortage will absolutely persist way past Q1 2022. It will likely persist until Q2 2023. IAll the brands I sell are indicating that production will be very far below targets from 2019/2020 which was in a lot of ways a high water mark. Q1 2022 is the set of builds that we already have visibility on...as I was trying to explain. Just imagine the 'transitory inflation' commentary being a huge lie from Jerome Powell for the last 12 months finally biting them...anyone saying 'the problem will end soon' is wrong. Always. It's a psychological appeasement tactic. PsyOp 101.
In regards to GTS vs S vs Base etc...they have been making S and base and 4S variants for about 2 years now, already. So the GTS is just starting...which is why they are ramping it up...from 0. So, GTS production is already thousands of units behind S/4S/Base cars...does that make sense? They will probably equalize it in 2022/2023 but they have tons of people clamoring for the GTS variants (and they're awesome).
I am not going to be responsible for leaking the specific classified information but once it gets released (for years MJONES published them) I'm willing to confirm.
11-09-2021, 08:21 PM
#63
Discussing the chip shortage: the chip shortage will absolutely persist way past Q1 2022. It will likely persist until Q2 2023. IAll the brands I sell are indicating that production will be very far below targets from 2019/2020 which was in a lot of ways a high water mark.
”Globally, chip factories have increased their production capacity by 8 percent since early 2020 and plan to boost it by over 16 percent by the end of 2022, according to the U.S.-based Semiconductor Industry Association”
So, contrary to several posts on here, are you saying that production #’s will be far below 2020 #’s?
In regards to GTS vs S vs Base etc...they have been making S and base and 4S variants for about 2 years now, already. So the GTS is just starting...which is why they are ramping it up...from 0. So, GTS production is already thousands of units behind S/4S/Base cars...does that make sense? They will probably equalize it in 2022/2023 but they have tons of people clamoring for the GTS variants (and they're awesome).
Performance wise - not seeing street/track results that says the GTS is significantly a better performer than the S.
I am not going to be responsible for leaking the specific classified information but once it gets released (for years MJONES published them) I'm willing to confirm.
Last edited by CodyBigdog; 11-09-2021 at 08:39 PM.
11-09-2021, 09:22 PM
#64
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the chip industry has airplanes, tvs, smart IoT devices, phones, GPUs, cars, bitcoin miners etc etc to service...not just cars. Cars just happen to be what we are here for.
Supplier issues for 'just in time delivery' are problematic, as they drag on and carry reciprocal issues- such as 'updates' which could torpedo production for a lower cost product that's designed around antiquated tech...such as an F-series truck. Porsche has a multitude of vendors for all sorts of various parts- as do all factories...companies like Continental make a lot of the wiring harnesses (not just tires). If there is a spike in copper prices, it's a debacle for pricing on all wiring. This is compounded
Foundries are not going to invest on 'upscaling' old chipsets...they will only want to do new cars, new products, and futureproof their own stuff. So companies like Porsche who inherently make less cars than Ford benefit by being more nimble and able to scale upgrades across constantly smaller volumes. Porsche can also absorb slightly more cost due to higher general pricing. Same with Ferrari. Same with Boeing. But once larger government subsidized products are competing with consumer goods for that weekly output at the chip factory...pretty obvious that the government just pays whatever the asking price is since it's our taxpayer dollars and no profit is needed...
from our pipeline, we are seeing a 40-50% reduction in terms of inbound inventory (and prior to august we had been at a 30% increased sales # YoY). I do think we will see the entire German car market in USA go to more of an 'order based' system like Europe and not like the model it was a few years back with a 90-120 day supply on the ground of random inventory.
Supplier issues for 'just in time delivery' are problematic, as they drag on and carry reciprocal issues- such as 'updates' which could torpedo production for a lower cost product that's designed around antiquated tech...such as an F-series truck. Porsche has a multitude of vendors for all sorts of various parts- as do all factories...companies like Continental make a lot of the wiring harnesses (not just tires). If there is a spike in copper prices, it's a debacle for pricing on all wiring. This is compounded
Foundries are not going to invest on 'upscaling' old chipsets...they will only want to do new cars, new products, and futureproof their own stuff. So companies like Porsche who inherently make less cars than Ford benefit by being more nimble and able to scale upgrades across constantly smaller volumes. Porsche can also absorb slightly more cost due to higher general pricing. Same with Ferrari. Same with Boeing. But once larger government subsidized products are competing with consumer goods for that weekly output at the chip factory...pretty obvious that the government just pays whatever the asking price is since it's our taxpayer dollars and no profit is needed...
from our pipeline, we are seeing a 40-50% reduction in terms of inbound inventory (and prior to august we had been at a 30% increased sales # YoY). I do think we will see the entire German car market in USA go to more of an 'order based' system like Europe and not like the model it was a few years back with a 90-120 day supply on the ground of random inventory.
11-09-2021, 09:50 PM
#65
Three Wheelin'
That is likely true, but demand is also significantly increased - not unrelated to the increase in demand for consumer electronics driven by work from home. Also consider the months of reduced (or no) production that needs to be offset. Just because production is up does not necessarily mean there is not still a shortage.
11-09-2021, 09:54 PM
#66
Three Wheelin'
From our pipeline, we are seeing a 40-50% reduction in terms of inbound inventory (and prior to august we had been at a 30% increased sales # YoY). I do think we will see the entire German car market in USA go to more of an 'order based' system like Europe and not like the model it was a few years back with a 90-120 day supply on the ground of random inventory.
11-09-2021, 10:32 PM
#67
the chip industry has airplanes, tvs, smart IoT devices, phones, GPUs, cars, bitcoin miners etc etc to service...not just cars. Cars just happen to be what we are here for.
Supplier issues for 'just in time delivery' are problematic, as they drag on and carry reciprocal issues- such as 'updates' which could torpedo production for a lower cost product that's designed around antiquated tech...such as an F-series truck. Porsche has a multitude of vendors for all sorts of various parts- as do all factories...companies like Continental make a lot of the wiring harnesses (not just tires). If there is a spike in copper prices, it's a debacle for pricing on all wiring. This is compounded
Foundries are not going to invest on 'upscaling' old chipsets...they will only want to do new cars, new products, and futureproof their own stuff. So companies like Porsche who inherently make less cars than Ford benefit by being more nimble and able to scale upgrades across constantly smaller volumes. Porsche can also absorb slightly more cost due to higher general pricing. Same with Ferrari. Same with Boeing. But once larger government subsidized products are competing with consumer goods for that weekly output at the chip factory...pretty obvious that the government just pays whatever the asking price is since it's our taxpayer dollars and no profit is needed...
from our pipeline, we are seeing a 40-50% reduction in terms of inbound inventory (and prior to august we had been at a 30% increased sales # YoY). I do think we will see the entire German car market in USA go to more of an 'order based' system like Europe and not like the model it was a few years back with a 90-120 day supply on the ground of random inventory.
Supplier issues for 'just in time delivery' are problematic, as they drag on and carry reciprocal issues- such as 'updates' which could torpedo production for a lower cost product that's designed around antiquated tech...such as an F-series truck. Porsche has a multitude of vendors for all sorts of various parts- as do all factories...companies like Continental make a lot of the wiring harnesses (not just tires). If there is a spike in copper prices, it's a debacle for pricing on all wiring. This is compounded
Foundries are not going to invest on 'upscaling' old chipsets...they will only want to do new cars, new products, and futureproof their own stuff. So companies like Porsche who inherently make less cars than Ford benefit by being more nimble and able to scale upgrades across constantly smaller volumes. Porsche can also absorb slightly more cost due to higher general pricing. Same with Ferrari. Same with Boeing. But once larger government subsidized products are competing with consumer goods for that weekly output at the chip factory...pretty obvious that the government just pays whatever the asking price is since it's our taxpayer dollars and no profit is needed...
from our pipeline, we are seeing a 40-50% reduction in terms of inbound inventory (and prior to august we had been at a 30% increased sales # YoY). I do think we will see the entire German car market in USA go to more of an 'order based' system like Europe and not like the model it was a few years back with a 90-120 day supply on the ground of random inventory.
Any new chips for the 992 were designed and fabricated well in advance of production. A contract was signed with a primary contractor to deliver a small number of chips for test and evaluation. Once the chips were qualified, a larger contract was entered into, with chips used in 992 production runs. Additional fab houses could also have contracts to provide chips. That would be a prudent business thing to do. But no idea what Porsche does? When fabs shut for extended periods, equipment used in the fab lines need to be “re-qualified” all over again when the fab gears up. That can be a lengthy process and is not as simple as simply switching on the power. Once a “fab line” is fully qualified, the production of chips for customer X can begin. Depending on the complexity and state of the art of the chip, a fab run can take upwards of 3 months to complete…and another month to qualify and package.
As stated earlier, most fabs are now fully up and running as of late Spring…allow another 3-4 months to be fabricated and tested, we’re now talking about August timeframe (rough estimate) before car manufactures start to get their chips…BUT, BUT….all that can change if, when the fabs closed, car manufacturers cancelled orders…and chip companies then began to look for new customers. So when the fabs came back up, there’s the likelihood that smaller car companies like Porsche, went to the back of the fab order line? No idea. But the entire process is complex, which is why it will take a year, or two to rectify shortages.
Last edited by CodyBigdog; 11-09-2021 at 10:35 PM.
11-10-2021, 01:59 AM
#68
Rennlist Member
Originally Posted by CodyBigdog;[url=tel:17776008
17776008[/url]]Just so you know, I have a lot of familiarity with the design and fab of advanced chips….but do appreciate your info. My degrees, different jobs and finally my company were involved with these industries…but primarily for the development of advanced mm-wave wireless com systems for DoD. So, I fully appreciate the issues involved with getting a fab up and running again after a 3-6 month shut down.
Any new chips for the 992 were designed and fabricated well in advance of production. A contract was signed with a primary contractor to deliver a small number of chips for test and evaluation. Once the chips were qualified, a larger contract was entered into, with chips used in 992 production runs. Additional fab houses could also have contracts to provide chips. That would be a prudent business thing to do. But no idea what Porsche does? When fabs shut for extended periods, equipment used in the fab lines need to be “re-qualified” all over again when the fab gears up. That can be a lengthy process and is not as simple as simply switching on the power. Once a “fab line” is fully qualified, the production of chips for customer X can begin. Depending on the complexity and state of the art of the chip, a fab run can take upwards of 3 months to complete…and another month to qualify and package.
As stated earlier, most fabs are now fully up and running as of late Spring…allow another 3-4 months to be fabricated and tested, we’re now talking about August timeframe (rough estimate) before car manufactures start to get their chips…BUT, BUT….all that can change if, when the fabs closed, car manufacturers cancelled orders…and chip companies then began to look for new customers. So when the fabs came back up, there’s the likelihood that smaller car companies like Porsche, went to the back of the fab order line? No idea. But the entire process is complex, which is why it will take a year, or two to rectify shortages.
Any new chips for the 992 were designed and fabricated well in advance of production. A contract was signed with a primary contractor to deliver a small number of chips for test and evaluation. Once the chips were qualified, a larger contract was entered into, with chips used in 992 production runs. Additional fab houses could also have contracts to provide chips. That would be a prudent business thing to do. But no idea what Porsche does? When fabs shut for extended periods, equipment used in the fab lines need to be “re-qualified” all over again when the fab gears up. That can be a lengthy process and is not as simple as simply switching on the power. Once a “fab line” is fully qualified, the production of chips for customer X can begin. Depending on the complexity and state of the art of the chip, a fab run can take upwards of 3 months to complete…and another month to qualify and package.
As stated earlier, most fabs are now fully up and running as of late Spring…allow another 3-4 months to be fabricated and tested, we’re now talking about August timeframe (rough estimate) before car manufactures start to get their chips…BUT, BUT….all that can change if, when the fabs closed, car manufacturers cancelled orders…and chip companies then began to look for new customers. So when the fabs came back up, there’s the likelihood that smaller car companies like Porsche, went to the back of the fab order line? No idea. But the entire process is complex, which is why it will take a year, or two to rectify shortages.
Every fab all the way through substrate fabs are heavily investing in expansion of new lines to account for the demand, but not fully, because it will hurt when the market contracts again.
It’s the Wild West right now, and fabs are having no problem telling the big chip purchasers to go pound sand, so what chances does an auto manufacturer have?
Hell, for some chips, 6-8 month lead times are needed just for materials, and that’s not even accounting for re-qualification of those chips prior to standing up that line again.
We are going to be in this until at least Q2 2023, and anybody who thinks otherwise doesn’t work in this space like myself and the poster who I’m quoting above.
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11-10-2021, 02:12 AM
#70
Anyone who can afford a new 992 is prob 20+% richer than @12/31/20, given mere SPX
Public data exists about production volumes/revs/op profits of AAPL/Porsche/LVMH/Hermes/RACE, etc: the various major luxury goods producers, YTD vs '19 (or whenever)
Most consumers who are smarter have already developed relationships w/their chosen car dealers in their region, so often get their specs at MSRP, even on GT3, etc in major mkts, if a big enough repeat buyer and/or know big guys to join their buying syndicate
And, my sense is, latecomers/first-timers, in even SF region (in many ways, world's wealthiest region), have gotten early GT3 builds at a mere $40K ADM
Lots of amusing brouhaha vs a predictably priced world when consider SPX/NDX/BTC/ETH/crude of L5Y....and the obvious wealth compounding of consumers in all the major mkts vs any luxury goods
Stock charts of NDX/semis/auto mfrs/auto dlrs/LVMH/Hermes/crude, etc etc YTD (and beyond) confirm how robust are all these biz, some claiming poverty of some kind....kinda like all the alleged (usually obese) US poors w/latest iPhones, NKEs, pets, etc, etc
Public data exists about production volumes/revs/op profits of AAPL/Porsche/LVMH/Hermes/RACE, etc: the various major luxury goods producers, YTD vs '19 (or whenever)
Most consumers who are smarter have already developed relationships w/their chosen car dealers in their region, so often get their specs at MSRP, even on GT3, etc in major mkts, if a big enough repeat buyer and/or know big guys to join their buying syndicate
And, my sense is, latecomers/first-timers, in even SF region (in many ways, world's wealthiest region), have gotten early GT3 builds at a mere $40K ADM
Lots of amusing brouhaha vs a predictably priced world when consider SPX/NDX/BTC/ETH/crude of L5Y....and the obvious wealth compounding of consumers in all the major mkts vs any luxury goods
Stock charts of NDX/semis/auto mfrs/auto dlrs/LVMH/Hermes/crude, etc etc YTD (and beyond) confirm how robust are all these biz, some claiming poverty of some kind....kinda like all the alleged (usually obese) US poors w/latest iPhones, NKEs, pets, etc, etc
11-10-2021, 09:35 AM
#71
As someone who works heavily with semiconductors and SC supply chain, this is 100% correct. All fabs are at full capacity. Cancelled allocation was replaced by new customers or expansion of allocation for existing customers (already qualified - likely consumer electronics). Everybody who is trying to re-qualify and re-spin a line for non-advanced chips or temporarily shut down lines, is standing at the very end of the line.
Every fab all the way through substrate fabs are heavily investing in expansion of new lines to account for the demand, but not fully, because it will hurt when the market contracts again.
It’s the Wild West right now, and fabs are having no problem telling the big chip purchasers to go pound sand, so what chances does an auto manufacturer have?
Hell, for some chips, 6-8 month lead times are needed just for materials, and that’s not even accounting for re-qualification of those chips prior to standing up that line again.
We are going to be in this until at least Q2 2023, and anybody who thinks otherwise doesn’t work in this space like myself and the poster who I’m quoting above.
Every fab all the way through substrate fabs are heavily investing in expansion of new lines to account for the demand, but not fully, because it will hurt when the market contracts again.
It’s the Wild West right now, and fabs are having no problem telling the big chip purchasers to go pound sand, so what chances does an auto manufacturer have?
Hell, for some chips, 6-8 month lead times are needed just for materials, and that’s not even accounting for re-qualification of those chips prior to standing up that line again.
We are going to be in this until at least Q2 2023, and anybody who thinks otherwise doesn’t work in this space like myself and the poster who I’m quoting above.
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Thescout13 (11-10-2021)
11-10-2021, 01:30 PM
#72
Intermediate
Yes and I’m very excited to get my 4GTS Coupe in April. Little worried about ride harshness but I think I’ll manage OK and I have an X5 for comfort. The 4GTS will be my main DD though as my wife mainly drives the X5.
11-10-2021, 02:22 PM
#73
I did. The timing was great for me as I didn't want a noisier car (wife), stiffer riding car (both), race tex or bucket seats (both) or center lock wheels (me). So, as it turned out, it was perfect timing when I pre traded my 991.2 on a C4S cab order. When we were hammering out the deal back in September, my SA told me multiple good customers waiting for GTS slots but they could give me the next C4S cab allocation they received. Which they did on 11/01.
I drove by my Toyota dealer yesterday. Empty showroom. I doubt they have some nefarious plan to screw their Camry buyers.
And if you think this stuff is bad, try buying a new high end watch (for the last several years) without paying an ADM (if available at all).
I drove by my Toyota dealer yesterday. Empty showroom. I doubt they have some nefarious plan to screw their Camry buyers.
And if you think this stuff is bad, try buying a new high end watch (for the last several years) without paying an ADM (if available at all).
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slwong23 (11-10-2021)
11-10-2021, 05:22 PM
#74
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CanAutM3 (11-10-2021)
11-10-2021, 06:03 PM
#75
